Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

William Playfair wrote:As in the hall, in which there has been a sumptuous banquet, we perceive the fragments of a feast now become prey to beggars and banditti; if in some instances, the spectacle is less wretched and disgusting; it is, because the banquet is not entirely over, and the guests have not all yet risen from the table.

William Playfair
An inquiry into the permanent causes of the decline and fall of powerful and wealthy nations
1805


http://books.google.com/books?id=MLvIAA ... &q&f=false

Guns, germs and steel is a book that will clarify the inertia issues we see today.
It is not widely read and dispells common misnomer.
Another viable view I prescibe to is the Hopi stone on the true fork in the road
and consequneces as we say today written in stone.
I can cite as you Higg countless realities.
It will be a snap effect.
I am not trending good sign's as are we all are. We know better
and so does Bill. Washington is a Liberal Cargo Cult and hard rain
as we know is already here. We tread the locality's in service
to our community's. Ground Intell

aedens wrote:Guns, germs and steel is a book that will clarify the inertia issues we see today.

I believe Bill Gates reviewed that book too. I'll post any worthwhile excerpts.

Higgenbotham wrote:

aedens wrote:Guns, germs and steel is a book that will clarify the inertia issues we see today.

I believe Bill Gates reviewed that book too. I'll post any worthwhile excerpts.

Back when I was an active technology journalist, I met Bill Gates
several times. In our conversations, I was the arrogant, obnoxious
Boomer, and he was the nihilistic Gen-Xer. I'm sure he remembers me,
which means that there's at least a 5% chance that he's checked out my
web site, and probably dismissed it as the further rantings of a
Boomer. Something to keep in mind as you evaluate Bill Gates.

John

From Playfair, Chapter 4:

William Playfair wrote:Agriculture was neglected; and the masters of the world, who had obtained everything for which they contended, while they preserved their purity of manners, now became unable either to govern others, protect themselves, or even to provide food. Sicily and Africa supplied the Roman people with bread, long before the empire had become feeble, and even at the very time when it is reckoned to have been in its greatest splendor in the Augustan age. The cause of its decline was fixed beyond the power of human nature to conteract: it began by unnerving the human character and therefore its progress was accelerated and became irresistible.

Of all nations, into which luxury is introduced, none feel its effects so severely as one where it comes by conquest. A people of conquerors, who are wealthy, must, at all events, be under military authority, and that is never a desirable circumstance; depending also on revenues which come without the aid of industry, they must become doubly degraded.

August 15, 1971 again comes into focus. Since then, oil is traded for fiat dollars.

In the present industrial arrangement of the US empire, 3/4 of oil is imported, which is the agricultural arrangement equivalent of food. Oil makes (and transports) food in our system so we don't really provide our own food directly.

Therefore, I'm not so sure how the US is really all that different from Rome. If Bill Gates wants to explain it within the context of the comments here, it would be interesting to know.

"I, however, place economy among the first and most important republican virtues, and public debt as the greatest of the dangers to be feared."
Thomas Jefferson to William Plumer, July 21, 1816

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opoli ... 10812.html

Beginning Monday, August 15, the New York Fed intends to conduct another series of small-scale reverse repurchase (repo) transactions using all eligible collateral types.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/

http://www.richmondfed.org/publications ... ter_06.pdf

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/08 ... ffen-good/

http://pedrolains.typepad.com/Bernanke1983.pdf <----- page 8 and 19 for conclusion.

During 1931 and the first half of 1932 (the preriod stuided), it unquestionably represented pressure by banks on customers for repayment of loans and refusal by banks to grant new loans.”

Evidence for the existence of Giffen goods is limited, but microeconomic mathematical models explain how such a thing could exist. Giffen goods are named after Scottish economist Sir Robert Giffen, who was attributed as the author of this idea by Alfred Marshall in his book Principles of Economics. Giffen first proposed the paradox from his observations of the purchasing habits of the Victorian era poor.

Rome was a net food importer, the US is a net food exporter. If US crop production crashed to less than half current levels, we'd still be a net exporter of calories.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FATUS/index.htm#calendar

You also have to keep in mind that a lot of wheat has been turned over to corn production for ethanol, which could easily be turned back. Or eat the corn. The ethanol program has gone past silly and is now verging on stupid. So now we import wheat to let us grow corn that makes ethanol from the corn starch and pork from the remaining brewers grains. Or chicken. It's a terrible allocation of resource, but it's damned easy to fix, too, literally by the stroke of a pen and wait for the next growing season. And it's not like humans can't eat brewers grains, they aren't bad in bread, kind of a nutty flavor.

If an industrial arrangement like the US is undergoing a Roman style collapse, the first signal will probably be that, during this crisis period, the energy problem that has been building for 40 years will not be solved, or not solved in a way that benefits central authority. It could be that no solution is found, or that a solution is found but there is no ability or will to implement it, or that a solution is found but the solution is decentralized and there is no way for a central authority to have any control or involvement. I suspect it will be the latter. Also, before food production itself breaks down, I suspect the war or disease vectors will gain the upper hand first and the population will be cut that way. If that's the case, the population reduction will probably hit more "food eaters" and fewer "food producers".

Higgenbotham wrote:If an industrial arrangement like the US is undergoing a Roman style collapse, the first signal will probably be that, during this crisis period, the energy problem that has been building for 40 years will not be solved, or not solved in a way that benefits central authority. It could be that no solution is found, or that a solution is found but there is no ability or will to implement it, or that a solution is found but the solution is decentralized and there is no way for a central authority to have any control or involvement. I suspect it will be the latter. Also, before food production itself breaks down, I suspect the war or disease vectors will gain the upper hand first and the population will be cut that way. If that's the case, the population reduction will probably hit more "food eaters" and fewer "food producers".

We have probably reached a technological/energy peak for now, but the decline is going to be slow and take a long time, certainly more than this crisis period, and even the next crisis period 80 years away or so. And the next one, 160 years away.

"The West" is in "decline", which simply means that Faustian civilization is completing it's last stages, the transition from active growing culture to static/declining civlization. I think the point now is to maintain the key ideas of the West, such as individuality, etc. What we have from the West is pretty much all we are going to get. We could even get a new, better "High/First turning", but I think that is unlikely, although quite possible. Reality is a funny thing.

It's some sort of 1200-2000 year cycle/wave, recognized most recently by Spengler. It's fun to look at, though.

No one thinks it exists, just like no one thinks that Turnings/Generational Dynamics exists.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/aug2011.pdf
http://www.conference-board.org/press/p ... essid=4262
http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm

8/10 Gross Domestic Product (billions)
This week15003.8 Month ago 15018.1 Year ago 14597.7

GDP growth averaging just 1.6% for the U.S. this year versus our prior forecast of 2.2%. For 2012 we predict growth of 1.8%, which is down from 2.2%. The bigger problem now is that the challenging policy issues both in the U.S. and in Europe are widening the margin of uncertainty around these modest growth forecasts.