Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

jdcpapa wrote:

Higgenbotham wrote:

jdcpapa wrote:Would you care to opine as to the reason why housing values are increasing in South Florida?

Sure. If you take Miami (I assume that's the example you're citing) sale prices per square foot are down 3.7% year over year but prices per unit are up 2.5%:

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/FL-Mia ... 8%26el%3D0

This typically happens in a bust because as inventory increases and sales decrease buyers can get a lot better quality house for their money. So they tend to buy houses that are a bit larger and in better beighborhoods because they can pay a lot less per square foot.

Great explanation! Thanks!

That would be part of it. I've noticed that in quite a few places where prices have fallen a lot percentage wise from the bubble high.

Another component of some of the recent price increases I think is due to the fact that waves of foreclosures hit in some of the judicial states (I believe Florida is one of those), and then the foreclosures were pulled back. The foreclosures tend to be cheaper so prices can cycle due to the percentage of sales that are foreclosures.

Yet another component seems to be due to the type of buyer that exists now versus in years past. If banks aren't granting loans so readily, today's typical buyer may be more well heeled (better job, better credit, more cash) on average and more likely to be picking property in the higher end of the market. I don't have any evidence of that but it seems likely. Yesterday's marginal buyer is today's renter.

If a particular locality has seen a bump from the bottom those would be some of the reasons. Also, from what I've gathered, Miami didn't become particularly overbuilt in the single family home market like Orlando and Ft Myers did. But if you check the Miami condo market I'd wonder if prices have seen any uptick.

The various market tracking web sites will give different pictures. I looked at the Altos Research stats and graphs for the Miami housing market and while they are different the basic idea still seems to apply - prices of units sold are outpacing prices per square foot of units sold.

http://www.altosresearch.com/research/F ... ate-market

RDRUNR wrote:I always tell people they need to read John's site here, and say "THIS is the smartest guy I've ever read on the internet."

In my opinion, this forum would be more useful if everyone kept a copy of The Fourth Turning nearby and referenced (and discussed) that and John's blog frequently with regard to these topics.

jdcpapa wrote:

MnMark wrote: So I object to your casual use of the term "xenophobia" in this context of generational cycles. I can believe that there are generational cycles of tolerance for a certain amount of outsiders settling in a people's territory, but it is unfair and insulting to call these very real and very reasonable concerns "xenophobia".

Higgenbotham wrote: The generational dynamics xenophobia observations (as I understand them) say that increasing xenophobia is indicative of a Fourth Turning. I'm not using the term xenophobia to irritate people; I'm using it because that's the word John has used dozens of times to describe similar phenomena.

Hypothetical: This country is being populated by immigrants (as it has been for 200 years) who threaten our way of life thereby causing fear; is that threat or fear "unreasonable"? Likewise, this country is being populated by immigrants, because of the Baby Boomer vaccuum, who threaten our way of life thereby causing fear, is that fear reasonable? Maxine Waters (D) California makes the statement: ".....Tea party can go straight to hell" (because she is threatened or has fear, is that fear reaonable? Is it xenophobia?)

First thing, I just did a search for "xenophobia" in The Fourth Turning on google books. The word "xenophobia" does not appear anywhere in The Fourth Turning. So this must be John's word. I suspect he's gravitated toward the use of this word because it's Greek and resembles his last name. I would propose that a more fitting word be used in the blog.

Overall, with regard to this issue, I would lay out these bullet points (in no particular order):

Multi-racial societies tend to come apart at the seams when resources get scarce.

Since white people haven't been reproducing in enough numbers to sustain the growth our system requires, immigration was viewed as an alternative.

Certain polical factions like immigration because it increases their vote totals.

Certain other political factions like immigration because it lowers wages.

The number of abortions white people have had performed on themselves are roughly equal to the total amount of immigrants that have come into this country in the past 40 years.

On whether the fears are reasonable or unreasonable, in the era of declining resources that I believe is being entered into, I would come down on the side that the fears are reasonable. But fear by its very nature is not based mostly on reason; it is based mostly on emotion. That's why the psychological mumbo jumbo and labeling is such junk and we should stay away from confusing words that psychologists have invented to justify their existence. Just suffice it to say (from my viewpoint) that statements and actions that are negative toward foreigners or those who are different are increasing in frequency and intensity, and the reactions are not conciliatory.

I just entered into a short silver position on today's outside bar reversal and will add on confirmation. I was looking for a high around $45 before the reversal but it didn't quite get there.

Higgenbotham wrote:I just entered into a short silver position on today's outside bar reversal and will add on confirmation. I was looking for a high around $45 before the reversal but it didn't quite get there.

Added to the short silver position as it fell further. I will not add any more unless/until the May low is taken out. But not as much down there. Silver is down about 4% on the day.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/marc-fabe ... g#comments

Carefull out there guys.

Higgenbotham wrote: Added to the short silver position as it fell further. I will not add any more unless/until the May low is taken out. But not as much down there. Silver is down about 4% on the day.

Are you just expecting a short term correction or do you think of this as a long term position?

aedens wrote:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/marc-fabe ... g#comments

Careful out there guys.

Faber says that he's the "greatest bear on earth?"

I beg to differ.

John

vincecate wrote:

Higgenbotham wrote: Added to the short silver position as it fell further. I will not add any more unless/until the May low is taken out. But not as much down there. Silver is down about 4% on the day.

Are you just expecting a short term correction or do you think of this as a long term position?

Probably no longer than 4 months.

Markets hardly ever give a person what they want, but if silver took a flush down to 16 this fall, I'd cover and buy back the entire silver position I liquidated in April. And if gold corrected back to about 1200 in the same time frame, I'd buy all that back too.

If the May low isn't taken out this fall, say by early October and maybe sooner, I'll probably just cover and wait to see what happens.

Also, if silver drops fast and hard to somewhere in the mid to low 30s, I will likely do the same thing as with the short stocks position - cover and try to get a bounce. If I cover and it falls further that will be the end of the trade.

Finally, if there is no follow through down soon, I will get out.

Higgenbotham wrote: Finally, if there is no follow through down soon, I will get out.

In short term predictions I don't seem much better than random Monkeys, but I suspect Bernanke says something Friday that makes it clear he thinks printing more money is a good thing and silver jumps up. Like a 1923 German central banker, he thinks printing money solves problems. Last year Jackson Hole was good for silver.

I note someone has a list of things most likely to go up if there is a hint of QE3 and SLV is at the top:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/288536- ... le-miracle