tobyguy wrote:
...
Fear and greed are the key components of social mood. Fear and greed is what moves markets. Investors are quick to brush aside economic, political and other so-called "fundamental" issues/problems/factors at a moments notice. The forces of greed and fear are responsible for pushing prices higher and higher or lower and lower (respectively).
When fear sets in and people run for the exit, they point fingers at the problems that had been well known and in plain view for some time (for oil it was China demand, regional conflicts, hurricanes, OPEC, trading on margin, computerized trading, etc.). Other markets are no different (as we've all witnessed - and ALL at roughly the same time).
Like during times of great fear, in periods of great optimism, rational thinking goes out the window. People follow the crowd and are driven by a "herding mentality". This is why bubbles and depressions exist.
Got it?
Tobyguy
I understand fully what you are saying but your perspective is limited and your disrepect for those who have greater experience than you is obvious.
"Social mood" is determined by other things such as Generational Dynamics. Generational Dynamics determines social mood; social mood does not determine Generational Dynamics.
Greed, when not balanced by the fear of having lived through a period such as the Great Depression, creates excess which then eventually becomes so great that the bubble bursts and fear sets in. A new "social mood" then sets in, caused by people seeing their life savings evaporating and their jobs disappearing; "depression" is a great example of a social mood, IMO. "recession" is an economic condition of an economy receding while "despression" is a social mood and is much more difficult to define. Only when the bubble that bursts is big enough will the social mood be changed since a social mood is very difficult to affect.
Arguing that supply and demand is not the cause of high oil prices is incorrect.
Supply and demand is the thing that you would point to first in the chain in identifying high oil prices because, as was pointed out, China's use of oil was growing rapidly. According to the sources I found China's use was increasing ever more dramatically in the past year or two and that is after growing rapidly prior to that.
If a bubble bursts and the social mood turns sour people then point out the social mood as a cause but Generational Dynamics is the container into which all of these fit. Human nature itself, IMO, is the great container into which all of the above fit.
To explain a little further: It is our very nature that should you take any one man and any one woman and started all over from scratch you would end up once again with generations that again and again use greed to create bubbles which burst to create a new social mood which will eventually be forgotten, creating a new bubble, and on and on and on.
As with Gordo I see clearly that your vision is limited by your life experience and so you both act like an angry child when confronted with opposing viewpoints. Viewpoints that you really can't understand unless you respect your elders, and there's the rub. John points out again and again how this is classic generational behavior, becoming more and more desctructive with each generation until finally we hit bottom and start all over. I have a few years on you and I respect the opinions of those older than I so I believe them when they tell me something, even if they tell me I am wrong...no, especially when they tell me I am wrong. That is the only way that I see to break the generation crisis, or at least for me not to be taken down by it.
One of the things you may notice is that I tend to cut John more slack than I would you or Gordo, that's because John is older and I assume he knows more. He's not always right but he sees from a higher perspective than I. As I have become more aware of Generational Dynamics I have found it is a new source of wisdom for me that I could only otherwise achieve through actual experience. I find that I can often tell a persons' age by his writing and thinking and that is a very powerful tool, if one chooses to use it.
Perhaps you could sit back for a second and re-read some of your posts and note how you react when you are criticized? To me it seems that you only want to argue and fight without any attempt at coming to a conclusion or learning anything new. Imagine if you could truly come to respect the voices of your elders,
especially when they point out that you are wrong.
--Fred