Generational Dynamics World View News

[Navigator]

** 01-Oct-2020 World View: Balloting chaos and Dred Scott

It's still possible for the election to be thrown into the House of
Representatives, but I would expect the Supreme Court to do what it
can to prevent that.

I would hope so. They could maybe even do so under some kind of compromise that prevents "court packing". Such a move (court packing) would undermine the constitution, as was pointed out when FDR contemplated doing it.

[DaKardii]

Both Azerbaijan and Armenia are rejecting calls for a ceasefire, and the fighting is continuing with artillery shelling on both sides, killing dozens and wounding hundreds.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Turkey has transported about 900 Syrian mercenaries to Azerbaijan to take part in the fighting. The organization adds that Armenian-born fighters in Syria have also been transported to Armenia to join the fight. There have also been unconfirmed reports that Armenia has transferred Kurdish mercenaries from Syria.

John, in my opinion the only reason this conflict has escalated (rather than died down as you previously predicted) is because of Turkey's meddling. Armenia and Azerbaijan are in Awakening eras, but Turkey is in a Crisis era. Armenia and Azerbaijan don't want war, but Turkey does. And what's a better way to escalate things than deploying al-Qaeda-affiliated militants from Syria who have no business to even be there?

Russia is an ally of Armenia and has a military base in Armenia, but is remaining neutral for the time being and calling for a ceasefire.

Perhaps the reason why Russia is not engaging in escalatory acts of its own (as of yet) is because Russia, like Armenia and Azerbaijan, is in an Awakening era.

You have previously asserted that the former Russian Empire and the former Ottoman Empire should all be on the same timeline. But based on my personal observations, that does not appear to be the case.

Turkey, unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia, did not have an existential crisis in the '90s. It is having such a crisis only now, 25 years later. This means that the former Russian Empire and the former Ottoman Empire, if they were ever on the on the same timeline to begin with, went in separate directions at some point, probably due to the ways they were affected by the Cold War.

Either the former Russian Empire's timeline was accelerated by Communist policies, or the former Ottoman Empire's timeline was slowed down due to incessant interventions by both sides of the Cold War (and by the West alone after 1991).

[Guest]

The rise and fall of nations and empires, an endless procession throughout 5,000 years of human civilisation.

What were the chances of the US being the first nation to maintain this position in the history of human civilisation?

Almost zero.



A new nation becomes an old nation.

The pie has been carved and an established elite look to pull up the drawbridge to keep themselves in the very comfortable position they are in now. Social mobility is at the same atrocious level as the UK and they use the same mechanisms for social stratification, private schools and universities (they take no chances in the US).

Can you think of anyone at the top in the US that didn’t go to an Ivy League University?

The generations that made fortunes fade into the past to be replaced by generations that inherit fortunes. Capitalist dynamism is replaced by rent seeking, as the idea now is to conserve fortunes rather than make fortunes; the world of finance dominates to meet this goal.

Finance allows the wealthy to use their money to make more money.

Where can they get the best return on their investments?

In the new dynamic nations of Asia, not in their own country.

To conserve fortunes they move taxes off themselves and onto labour making their own nation internationally uncompetitive. They don’t like paying taxes and preside over a decline in the infrastructure that was built when the nation was young and dynamic.

They even look on the existing businesses, that are now on the stock market, as a revenue stream and these businesses are there for them to cannibalise for personal gain. The activist shareholders try and rip the heart out of the real economy until it collapses and dies.

Those old US industrialists who made their fortunes from the real economy, making useful things and providing useful services will be spinning in their graves.



It is the cycle of nations and empires:

Dynamism, success, complacency and decay

Adios America.

Hello China (not that China will be any different, it is the endless procession).



We (the UK) were the global superpower before the US, look at us now!

[John]

** 02-Oct-2020 World View: Russian and Ottoman empires

> John, in my opinion the only reason this conflict has escalated
> (rather than died down as you previously predicted) is because of
> Turkey's meddling. Armenia and Azerbaijan are in Awakening eras,
> but Turkey is in a Crisis era. Armenia and Azerbaijan don't want
> war, but Turkey does. And what's a better way to escalate things
> than deploying al-Qaeda-affiliated militants from Syria who have
> no business to even be there?

I think that this analysis is correct. However, when I said that the
conflict would probably fizzle, I certainly didn't mean within four
days. I mean that it's likely to fizzle over the next few weeks or
months, or even over a couple of years. The point is that it won't
escalate into a full-scale crisis war -- unless it turns into a major
war between Russia and Turkey.

> You have previously asserted that the former Russian Empire and
> the former Ottoman Empire should all be on the same timeline. But
> based on my personal observations, that does not appear to be the
> case.

> Turkey, unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia, did not have an
> existential crisis in the '90s. It is having such a crisis only
> now, 25 years later. This means that the former Russian Empire and
> the former Ottoman Empire, if they were ever on the on the same
> timeline to begin with, went in separate directions at some point,
> probably due to the ways they were affected by the Cold War.

> Either the former Russian Empire's timeline was accelerated by
> Communist policies, or the former Ottoman Empire's timeline was
> slowed down due to incessant interventions by both sides of the
> Cold War (and by the West alone after 1991).

I'm trying to think what you mean by this, since I don't recall
making that assertion in exactly that way. In fact, since both
empires consist of multiple nations, even all the nations within
the same empire would not have the same timeline.

What I think you're referring to is theoretical discussions of
how timelines merge over a period of centuries, and how most
timelines have merged into what I call a WW I timeline and a
WW II timeline. However, these are generalizations, and each nation
must be analyzed separately. For example Iran and Turkey are on
the "WW I timeline," but Iran's crisis war climaxed in 1909, and
Turkey's in 1922.

The other point is that countries on the WW I timeline had their
crisis wars early enough so that their next crisis war also occurred
in the 20th century. Examples are Iran's 1979 revolution, and the
Armenia-Azerbaijan war in the 1990s. However, Turkey and Russia
are on the "WW I timeline," but they have not yet had another
crisis war, and are overdue for one.

[John]

** 02-Oct-2020 World View: Rise and fall of empires

> The rise and fall of nations and empires, an endless procession
> throughout 5,000 years of human civilisation. What were the
> chances of the US being the first nation to maintain this position
> in the history of human civilisation? Almost zero.

> A new nation becomes an old nation. The pie has been carved and
> an established elite look to pull up the drawbridge to keep
> themselves in the very comfortable position they are in
> now. Social mobility is at the same atrocious level as the UK and
> they use the same mechanisms for social stratification, private
> schools and universities (they take no chances in the US).

> Can you think of anyone at the top in the US that didn’t go to an
> Ivy League University? The generations that made fortunes fade
> into the past to be replaced by generations that inherit
> fortunes. Capitalist dynamism is replaced by rent seeking, as the
> idea now is to conserve fortunes rather than make fortunes; the
> world of finance dominates to meet this goal.

> Finance allows the wealthy to use their money to make more money.
> Where can they get the best return on their investments? In the
> new dynamic nations of Asia, not in their own country.

> To conserve fortunes they move taxes off themselves and onto
> labour making their own nation internationally uncompetitive. They
> don’t like paying taxes and preside over a decline in the
> infrastructure that was built when the nation was young and
> dynamic.

> They even look on the existing businesses, that are now on the
> stock market, as a revenue stream and these businesses are there
> for them to cannibalise for personal gain. The activist
> shareholders try and rip the heart out of the real economy until
> it collapses and dies.

> Those old US industrialists who made their fortunes from the real
> economy, making useful things and providing useful services will
> be spinning in their graves.

> It is the cycle of nations and empires: Dynamism, success,
> complacency and decay. Adios America. Hello China (not that China
> will be any different, it is the endless procession).

> We (the UK) were the global superpower before the US, look at us
> now!

This is very inspirational, almost poetic. You ought to turn it into
a book.

This is Arnold J. Toynbee's view of history, of the rise and fall of
empires. I've been developing Generational Dynamics for almost 20
years now. 20 years ago, I would have agreed with Toynbee's view.

But now I look at things quite differently. Instead of looking at
entire nation empires -- Roman Empire, British Empire, etc. -- look at
civilizations. You can start the Western civilization from Athens and
Crete in ancient Greece, see it move to the Roman Empire, move to
various European empires, to the British empire, and to the American
empire. When you look at it that way, there's been only one empire --
the Western Civilization Empire -- and it's survived for many
millennia, but has only suffered minor changes in terms of internal
national boundaries, capital cities, and so forth.

Whatever happens in WW III, I would expect the Western Civilization
Empire to continue to exist and to lead the world.

But you're suggesting something different, that a new Empire will lead
the world, what we might call the "Asian Civilization Empire." I
believe that this was Toynbee's view, and 20 years ago I think I
probably agreed with it. But not today.

I've now spent 20 years developing Generational Dynamics, and I've
written thousands of articles analyzing China and other Asian
countries. I've also spent many thousands of hours of research to
write my book on "War between China and Japan," and also the book that
I'm currently writing on Vietnam.

And my conclusion is unequivocal: Asian countries are incompetent to
govern themselves, and couldn't hope to come close to governing an
empire.

China is the obvious choice, but China has a chronic, corrosive core
illness that make it impossible for China ever to do anything but go
insane and self-destruct. That core illness has a name: Confucianism.

Confucianism means that a leader requires an imaginary "mandate from
heaven" to govern, and that if something goes wrong, then the leader
has lost his mandate from heaven, and it's time for an anti-government
rebellion. Confucianism means that the entire rest of the world is
barbarians, and the only way to interact with them is to treat them as
donkeys whose only function is to produce stuff for the Confucian
Chinese, and who are to be treated as contemptously as possible.

It's common to identify Confucianism as a religion, as opposed to
Christianity, Buddhism or Islam. But the Chinese make it clear that
they do not view it that way. The opposite of Confucianism is not
Christianity. It's Democracy. The Chinese Communists, who are the
current incarnation of Confucianism, view Democracy as an evil
ideology whose purpose is to destroy Confucianism.

Western religions like Christianity are evil to Confucians because
they encourage the evil of Democracy.

Getting back to the original subject, what I call the "Western
Civilization Empire," starting from ancient Athens and Crete, has
succeeded because it's based on the core principle of Democracy. It
has spawned sub-empires over the centuries, but in one form or another
this empire will continue to lead the world, because only Democracy is
capable of governing empires.

[Cool Breeze]

The other point is that countries on the WW I timeline had their
crisis wars early enough so that their next crisis war also occurred
in the 20th century. Examples are Iran's 1979 revolution, and the
Armenia-Azerbaijan war in the 1990s. However, Turkey and Russia
are on the "WW I timeline," but they have not yet had another
crisis war, and are overdue for one.

That was a great back and forth. I am convinced you are correct on the Turkey-Russia conflict as being overdue and also, what will happen at some point.

In a later post you said,

Confucianism means that a leader requires an imaginary "mandate from
heaven" to govern, and that if something goes wrong, then the leader
has lost his mandate from heaven, and it's time for an anti-government
rebellion. Confucianism means that the entire rest of the world is
barbarians, and the only way to interact with them is to treat them as
donkeys whose only function is to produce stuff for the Confucian
Chinese, and who are to be treated as contemptously as possible.

This is remarkably similar to Islamic thinking, which is more codified from where it was borrowed (semitic jewish/talmudic tradition).

John, do you have a view on "democracies" always collapsing when the corrupted elite continue to give away the productive capacity of the nation (to the non producers who vote for such)? It seems even the ancient Greeks were well aware of this and that's why they were for republics, but as we see in America laws are changed so that the elites can control and manipulate through voting for all, expanding government, etc.

The interesting thing about Christianity is that it provided the proper balance for individual and collective. Of course, no government system will ever work forever in this world, so we are left just urging one another to extoll the most virtuous forms of life and governance, as is possible. Certainly we have seen in the 20th century the disgusting ramifications of godless communism, and we see people hooked to similar ideologies trying to put them forth yet again - even after their countless failures, death and misery.

[Cool Breeze]

I have earlier posted about the US Presidential Election heading to the House of Representatives, and how, if this happened, pandemonium would ensue.

The issue with mail in balloting is not the potential fraud that Trump and others are touting. Instead, it may just be the daunting task of just counting them.

The other day I saw an increadibly insightful article on this by Ted Rall on Rasmussen's website (polling firm).

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public ... nding_doom

From the article:

"The date to remember is Dec. 14, when the delegations of the Electoral College meet in their respective states. That's a hard deadline. Each delegation can only certify their state's vote counts if they are 100% complete -- machine votes cast in person at polling places on Election Day, early votes, absentee ballots, write-ins and, this year, COVID-19 mail-in ballots. If the state fails to certify on time, its Electoral College votes aren't counted.

Within each state, there is a canvassing/certification deadline for county officials to submit their results. Most are in late November. California, with a Dec. 11 deadline, cuts it close and usually files its national certification last.

State election officials are doing their best to meet the challenge. They are hiring additional staff, buying new tabulation machines and installing drop boxes. Even assuming that they will be able to hire the additional personnel they need in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, the practical impediments to meeting the Dec. 14 deadline are daunting. Mail-in ballots are manually opened, and signatures must be visually compared, sometimes several times, to Board of Election records."

If enough "certified" electoral votes are not there to give either candidate a majority, the election goes to the House. Then each state gets 1 vote per congressional delegation. Results of individual voting is out the window, AS INTENDED by the CONSTITUTION.

I think as John suggested (SCOTUS weighing in), I would say that's why they have to make a quick, firm decision that ballots after election day cannot be counted, for obvious reasons, chief among them the counting and disputing issues. If that happens the count will be performed and finished in all the states by December, easily.

[Cool Breeze]

By the way, that eloquent guest post also reminded me of Sir John Glubb's

The Fate of Empires

have you all read that piece?

[guest]

What is the Euro-zone’s biggest problem? No one has got any idea what they are doing. Things have been going wrong from the start, and the consequences of all these blunders has been building up over time. The coronavirus could be the final straw that breaks the camel’s back.

The Euro was designed in the good old days before the problems of neoliberalism had come home to roost.They got the real fanatics in from the University of Chicago.

“The putative “father of the Euro”, economist Robert Mundell is reported to have explained to one of his university of Chicago students, Greg Palast: “the Euro is the easy way in which Congresses and Parliaments can be stripped of all power over monetary and fiscal policy. Bothersome democracy is removed from the economic system” Michael Hudson “Killing the Host”

This was one of those all important design criteria for neoliberal fanatics.Everything would be controlled by perfect markets. Governments and the electorate were the only things they really had to worry about. Everyone cheered as periphery economies boomed on borrowed money, e.g. the Irish Celtic Tiger economy.No one realised Wall Street was flooding the world with toxic assets.

"It’s nearly $14 trillion pyramid of super leveraged toxic assets was built on the back of $1.4 trillion of US sub-prime loans, and dispersed throughout the world" All the Presidents Bankers, Nomi Prins.

The periphery nations boomed on money borrowed mainly from the banks at the core. The big European banks loaded up on Wall Street’s toxic assets. The Titanic was heading straight for the iceberg. The neoliberal designers of the Euro-zone had expected perfect markets to ensure none of these things happened. Nations didn’t have their own central banks to backstop national financial systems when a financial crisis hit as this wasn’t seen as necessary. The Titanic hit the iceberg and there weren’t enough life boats.

The markets hadn’t batted an eyelid while all this was happening, and they got no signals from the markets that anything was going wrong. Market participants are really hot on public debt, though. Once Governments had patched up their banks as best they could, and suffered from falling tax receipts after the crisis, Government debt ballooned. The markets reacted, and drove bond yields up at the periphery making things worse. Market forces were intent on destroying the Euro-zone. It looked as though the Euro project was doomed until Mario stepped in to save the day.

TBTF only works for big banks when nations have their own central banks to backstop the financial system. In 2008, the Euro-zone discovered their banks were too big to bail as the usual mechanisms to do this had not been incorporated into the design of the Euro-zone. Governments could not get the money from their own central bank to backstop the financial system. Neoliberals used to believe in everything being controlled by perfect markets, and so they didn’t need to worry about financial crises as they would never happen. Neoliberals hate Government spending, and never realised a day would come when Governments had to spend to bail out the financial system, but it did, and they couldn’t.

Why don’t you make things worse with austerity? This does look like the solution when you use neoclassical economics. Policymakers that use neoclassical economics tend to think austerity is the answer, and they did in the 1930s as well. Policymakers couldn’t remember what happened when they used austerity in the 1930s; it’s a really bad idea. Recommended reading “Austerity, the History of a Dangerous Idea” Mark Blyth.

Western policymakers don’t understand the mechanics of the monetary system and there was no way they could see the problem with austerity. The IMF predicted Greek GDP would have recovered by 2015 with austerity.By 2015 Greek GDP was down 27% and still falling.The money supply ≈ public debt + private debtThe “private debt” component was going down with deleveraging from a debt fuelled boom. The Troika then wrecked the Greek economy by cutting the “public debt” component and pushed the economy into debt deflation (a shrinking money supply).Greece was pushed into a Great Depression type event by the Troika.

Even when times are good, the Euro-zone’s policymakers have no idea what they are doing.

They don’t stand a chance.

[Guest]

DESTINATION FEUDAL SYSTEM

US had the greatest productive Economy in the world

China was pig farmers living in mud huts

Oligarchs decided to make 2% more profits by shipping the productive economy to China

Oligarchs then gave the US the Paper Economy

And used Zero interest, and every Wall Street Scam in the books, plus some ones like ENRON, to begin concentrating all tangible assets under their control, and leaving the serf nothing or bubbled paper assets like Stocks, homes at 200% etc.

When the bubble pops,

the serfs will have debts far in excess of their assets and will be reduced to indebted renters, maybe they can sell their 9 year old sons and daughters to the Oligarchs as sex slaves for a few pieces of paper