Generational Dynamics World View News

[Navigator]

Is this the "October surprise" that navigator warned us about?

No, the "October Surprise" I am worried about is Trump starting something with the Iranians.

Here is Trump's latest saber rattling:

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5204 ... nd-with-us

I believe actual war with China is about a year away.

[JDav]

After reading Trump's books and watching him for the last four years, I doubt the idea of using the military to improve his political fortunes would even cross his mind. Part of why he's hated so much is his refusal to accept the status quo of the military-industrial complex.

On another note: John, thank you for all the hard work you've put into Generational Dynamics, and informing us ignorant Americans about what's happening in the world. I discovered you on Breitbart a while back and was disheartened to hear the story about how that relationship ended.

I'm just an ordinary guy trying to live an ordinary life. I have no observations or opinions to offer about many of the topics discussed here, but you'd have to be (willfully) blind to not realize that the shit is going to hit the fan, and probably soon, whether from threats abroad, within our own borders, or both. That is why I strongly recommend that all of you who follow this site help Navigator (and by extension, John) by donating to the Coming Storms Preparation book project.

If everyone who has reaped the fruits of John's labors would kick in $10 or $20 (or more) it would be funded in no time. I recognized back in 1997 when I got married and started raising a family that things were going south, that our freedoms were being slowly eroded. I've prepared as much as my (lack of) training has allowed, but Navigator's experience and insights have taken me to a whole new level, and pointed out dangers that I never would have anticipated.

One recommendation I have about preparation that has nothing to do with the physical perils Navigator describes, is to arm yourselves with books - the Bible, a set of Encyclopedia Brittanica's Great Books of the Western World, and any other volumes featuring the best works of philosophy, history, etc. that Western Civilization has to offer. As long as those ideas survive, our society has hope. Many seeking power today would eliminate them if they could. Even if our society collapses, there will be a rebuilding at some point in the future - what a great foundation for that rebirth.

I sometimes see 100 or more people at a time on this site. Please take a minute and donate now, whatever you are able -

https://www.gofundme.com/f/coming-storms-preparation

[Xeraphim1]

Is this the "October surprise" that navigator warned us about?

No, the "October Surprise" I am worried about is Trump starting something with the Iranians.

Here is Trump's latest saber rattling:

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5204 ... nd-with-us

I believe actual war with China is about a year away.

Trump has been very hesitant to take military action against anyone. He had a very good opportunity when Iran shot down the RQ-4 last year and he decided not to fire back. At the same time Iran is holding off because they hope Biden will win and they don't want to screw things up.

[DaKardii]

After reading Trump's books and watching him for the last four years, I doubt the idea of using the military to improve his political fortunes would even cross his mind. Part of why he's hated so much is his refusal to accept the status quo of the military-industrial complex.

On another note: John, thank you for all the hard work you've put into Generational Dynamics, and informing us ignorant Americans about what's happening in the world. I discovered you on Breitbart a while back and was disheartened to hear the story about how that relationship ended.

I'm just an ordinary guy trying to live an ordinary life. I have no observations or opinions to offer about many of the topics discussed here, but you'd have to be (willfully) blind to not realize that the shit is going to hit the fan, and probably soon, whether from threats abroad, within our own borders, or both. That is why I strongly recommend that all of you who follow this site help Navigator (and by extension, John) by donating to the Coming Storms Preparation book project.

If everyone who has reaped the fruits of John's labors would kick in $10 or $20 (or more) it would be funded in no time. I recognized back in 1997 when I got married and started raising a family that things were going south, that our freedoms were being slowly eroded. I've prepared as much as my (lack of) training has allowed, but Navigator's experience and insights have taken me to a whole new level, and pointed out dangers that I never would have anticipated.

One recommendation I have about preparation that has nothing to do with the physical perils Navigator describes, is to arm yourselves with books - the Bible, a set of Encyclopedia Brittanica's Great Books of the Western World, and any other volumes featuring the best works of philosophy, history, etc. that Western Civilization has to offer. As long as those ideas survive, our society has hope. Many seeking power today would eliminate them if they could. Even if our society collapses, there will be a rebuilding at some point in the future - what a great foundation for that rebirth.

I sometimes see 100 or more people at a time on this site. Please take a minute and donate now, whatever you are able -

https://www.gofundme.com/f/coming-storms-preparation

Just donated $100.

https://gf.me/u/yt7v3q

[John]

** 16-Oct-2020 World View: Notes from the Vietnam war

As I've mentioned several times, I've been spending every spare minute
writing a book on the history of Vietnam, following up on my books on
the history of China and Japan and the history of Iran and Islam. It
will be very nice to add one more book to my collection of books in
the "Generational Theory Book Series."

The history of Vietnam is very complex, much more complex than the
history of China, but I've now pretty much completed the history
narrative up to the "American-Vietnam war," and like most things, the
public understanding of this war is almost 100% wrong. Most people
view this as a war between America and Ho Chi Minh's North Vietnam.
Har, har, har.

So I now look at it as three separate wars:

• First Indochina War (November 1946 to August 1954). This was
  a war between Ho Chi Minh's Viet Minh and France (the French
  colonizers). It ended with France's humiliating defeat, after which
  America began to fill the vacuum with "advisors."
• Second Indochina War (1959-1975). This what Americans usually
  refer to as "the Vietnam War." It was actually a war between North and
  South Vietnam. China was supporting North Vietnam and the US was
  supporting South Vietnam, but the only real purpose of China and the
  US was to serve as useful idiots for the North and South Vietnamese.
  To a lesser extent, the Soviets also served as useful idiots.
• Vietnam-Cambodia-China war (1975-1989). Of the three wars, this
  was the most consequential. Vietnam conducted mass slaughter of South
  Vietnamese "enemies." Vietnam committed genocide of groups in Laos.
  Pol Pot in Cambodia slaughtered millions of people in one of the 20th
  century's greatest genocides, leading to war between Vietnam and
  Cambodia. China wanted to support its ally Cambodia, but was hampered
  because they don't have a common border. Hanoi confiscated property
  of ethnic Chinese living in Vietnam, because their loyalty to Hanoi
  was questioned. China invaded Vietnam to teach Vietnam a lesson for
  being insufficiently grateful for Chinese support against the
  Americans during the previous war, and because China wanted to
  reestablish Vietnam's vassal relationship to China which held prior to
  French colonization. China failed to do that, and once again, the
  Soviets were useful idiots.

With regard to the second of these, the role of the United States was
total farce. The South Vietnam president Ngo Dinh Diem wanted to
implement a plan called "Strategic Hamlets" that would move the South
Vietnamese civilians into fortified areas, and protect them from
terrorist attacks by the Viet Cong. Diem depended on the US for
weapons and logistics. President John Kennedy supplied the weapons,
but his chief adviser William Averell Harriman hated Diem, and did
many things to sabotage the whole project. On November 1, 1963,
Harriman succeeded in getting Diem ousted, and on November 2, Diem was
assassinated.

Ho Chi Minh believed that Diem was "one of the strongest people
resisting ... Communism," and was quoted as saying, "I can scarcely
believe the Americans would be so stupid."

It turned out later that there was another problem. The South
Vietnamese general in charge of the Strategic Hamlet program was
Albert Pham Ngoc Thao, who turns out to be a traitor who was
sabotaging the program and feeding information to Ho Chi Minh. He was
discovered and executed in 1965.

The Vietnam war got much worse after Diem's assassination.

More to follow.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019
Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwe ... 732738637/

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback:
153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supre ... 732738610/

[John]

** 17-Oct-2020 World View: Ho Chi Minh and OSS

> Even this sketchy overview is seriously flawed. Ignoring the Viet
> Minh as OSS clients during WW-II is particularly irritating, since
> we guaranteed them our support for decolonization after the war.

> Did you actually look into this, or just write your personal views
> in long form?

I'm not sure what you're complaining about, since what you're
describing is a fairly insignificant fact in a short summary of
three wars.

Nonetheless, the fact that the American OSS collaborated with Ho
Chi Minh to fight the Japanese in Vietnam is certainly amusing,
and I'll want to add that tale to my book.

And if the Americans made some promise to Ho Chi Minh, I doubt that he
was so credulous as to actually believe any such promise, and also I
assume he made many promises of his own that he had no intention of
keeping.

However, as I briefly checked out this American - Ho Chi Minh
connection this morning, I note that the following: "Her study also
hints that, had America continued to champion the anti-colonials and
their quest for independence, rather than caving in to the French, we
might have been spared our long and very lethal war in Vietnam."

This is pure silliness. It's not remotely possible we would have
done this, or that it would have made any difference if we had.

First, France was our ally after WW II. There was no way we would
abandon our ally in favor of Ho Chi Minh.

Second, the mood of the people, in America and Europe, would never
have permitted it. The people were exhausted and traumatized from
fighting two world wars, and they saw Communism on the march, in
Russia, in China, behind the Iron Curtain in eastern Europe, in Korea,
in Laos, and in North Vietnam. It is literally impossible that the
traumatized Western public would have tolerated simply walking away,
and allowing Communist North Vietnam to take over the Republic of
Vietnam, a democracy, without a struggle.

The controlling political philosophy at the time was the Truman
Doctrine, which said that it's better to fight a small war now
to prevent WW III later. Kennedy doubled down on the Truman Doctrine
with his "ask not" speech. So there was literally no choice but
to fight the Communists trying to take over South Vietnam.

Third, in the grand scheme of things, and from the point of view of a
Generational Dynamics analysis, and from the point of view of Vietnam
itself (and the book is about Vietnam, not the US), the most
significant part of the story was the series of massive genocides that
occurred in the region in 1975-1990. These genocides had been queued
up for centuries, and the only way that the French colonization and
the American intervention might have affected them might have been to
have postponed them. But they had to happen.

[Guest]

"Her study also hints that, had America continued to champion the anti-colonials and their quest for independence, rather than caving in to the French, we might have been spared our long and very lethal war in Vietnam."

Yes, higher education in the West has been highjacked by insane liberals and their ideology has destroyed the Western world. I hope the pandemic bankrupts and closes 90% of the universities in the Western world. (Believe me, the US schools are not the worst; British universities are the pits.) American colleges are now facing their Waterloo.

1. The colleges have been underperforming in educational terms for decades.

2. They practice overt propaganda, indoctrination and discrimination.

3. They charge excessive fees to support this model

4. Their academic browbeating of simple minded politicians is the primary cause of the economic meltdown. their faulty models led to the official panic that gripped the world.

5. Academics may now be dimly aware that, as their administration begin to shed unnecessary staff, faculty is next, on the chopping block.

The good news in this is that their own fear-mongering created the economic disaster that will rip through the college system. People now know that college isn't really worth the high price, and remote learning certainly isn't part of the bargain. Parents should put that money into retirement, or into worthwhile trade training for their kids. Kids now know that they have no need to wait four years before learning useful life skills. So, significant upside in the failure of the academic/government complex!

[Guest]

College is dead. It will not come back. That's a gift from Covid to the world. Maybe there will be a few less Master Degrees in postmodern gobbledygook pouring coffee at Starbucks.

1. Costs are stupidly far too high!

2. Kids come out dumber than when they went in.

3. You can get far more information on the Internet than in college.

You do the math.

[John]

** 18-Oct-2020 World View: Azerbaijan-Armenia escalation brings calls for US to intervene

• Map of Nagorno-Karabakh battlefield (Al-Jazeera)

A week ago, Russia mediated a truce between Azerbaijan and Armenia in
the war over Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent regions. These areas are
officially part of Azerbaijan, but they are occupied and governed by
Armenians, since the 1991-1994 war.

That truce lasted one day. Each side accused the other of violating
the truce.

During the last week, Azerbaijan, aided by Turkey, has made progress
on the ground, capturing regions outside of and adjacent to
Nagorno-Karabakh that have been populated and controlled by ethnic
Armenians since the 1994 truce.

Yesterday, on Saturday, France mediated a truce between Azerbaijan and
Armenia in the war over Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent regions.

That truce lasted one day. Each side accused the other of violating
the truce.

It's now widely believed that without some sort of international
intervention, the war will continue to escalate.

I've heard several different journalists on BBC and al-Jazeera
opine as follows (paraphrasing):

> "Some kind of international intervention is required.
> Russia has failed to bring about a ceasefire. France has failed
> to bring about a ceasefire. There's only one major actor in the
> international community that we haven't heard from, and that's the
> United States. Many analysts are calling on the United States to
> intervene, lest this become a major war."

There are all kinds of ironies in statements like this.

First, if the US did intervene somehow, these same journalists and
analysts would be whining about US imperialism. That's the way it's
always been in the decades following WW II, since the 1947
announcement of the Truman Doctrine, later reaffirmed by president
Kennedy in his "ask not" speech, that said that it's better to fight a
small war now to prevent WW III later, making the United States into
Policeman of the World.

Second, the US is in the middle of an election circus, and no one
outside of Secretary of State James Pompeo is even paying attention to
what's happening in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, he did say on Thursday
that he hoped Armenia could "defend" itself against Azerbaijan in the
conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, adding that Turkey’s role had
increased the risk of further violence.

Third, those calling for US intervention in Nagorno-Karabakh don't
specify what form that intervention would take, beyond Pompeo's
statement. SURELY they don't mean some sort of military action by the
US. Maybe they mean sanctions on Turkey, but there already are
sanctions on Turkey, and further sanctions would only infuriate them.
So it seems very unlikely that the US will get involved, despite the
wishes of some in the "international community."

The following is my guess as to how the war will proceed: Azerbaijan,
aided and encouraged by Turkey, will continue to gain territory. The
fighting may pause due to some international agreement for a few weeks
or months, but eventually Azerbaijan will take control of Karabakh and
adjacent regions. At that point, the Azeris who lost their homes in
the 1994 ceasefire will demand the right to return, and will demand
revenge for what they view as Armenian atrocities. This will lead to
the issue of revenge atrocities and ethnic cleansing.

That's my guess as to the most likely path of the Nagorno-Karabakh
war, unless the war is overtaken by other events -- such as World War
III with China.

---- Sources:

-- Pompeo hopes Armenia can 'defend' itself from Azerbaijan
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... abakh.html
(AlMonitor, 16-Oct-2020)

-- Armenia, Azerbaijan accuse each other of violating truce
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/ ... o-karabakh
(A-Jazeera, 18-Oct-2020)

-- Azerbaijan says it shot down another Armenian fighter jet: Live
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/ ... o-karabakh
(Al-Jazeera, 18-Oct-2020)

-- Armenia, Azerbaijan blame each other for truce violations
https://apnews.com/article/internationa ... 9511bfdba0
(AP, 18-Oct-2020)

---- Related articles:

*** 11-Oct-2020 World View: Response to Azerbaijan-Armenia article
*** viewtopic.php?p=54944#p54944

** 11-Oct-20 World View -- Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e201011


** 28-Sep-20 World View -- Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200928

[Guest]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/_zhWHsfEa0U[/youtube]

What does this interview, along with Democrat efforts to smear Bannon, show us?
- The public break up between Trump and Bannon was clearly staged. Bannon never left Team Trump; his talents were being wasted in his former position in the administration. By leaving, he was able to better utilize his talents for the good of the nation.
- Democrats' efforts to censor the truth and silence anyone who speaks the truth shows yet again how far they have fallen into insanity - and into desperation. They know it's GAME OVER for them if their insurgency fails to retake control of the government because the people of America awakened to the truth and rejected their narrative. The Biden story is also why they impeached Trump last year, to attempt to stop the exposure of their criminal activities.