Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

Today the S&P reached its highest level since August 4, and its highest close since August 3, closing today at 1238. I am 100% short at the close, average short is S&P 1233. If the bears are going to be right, the S&P is likely to gap down on Monday morning. Of course, I have no idea what will happen and it will be very interesting to watch this. There's an interesting offset I noticed and today looks and feels a lot like April 23, 2010.

January 19, 2010 is July 21, 2011
February 5, 2010 is August 8, 2011
April 23, 2010 is October ??, 2011

These dates are approximately 18 months (or 548 days) apart.
13 trading days down from both highs.
53-54 trading days up in 2010 to the April high.

We should be at or near the recovery high now, but if this is really later in the long wave (generational cycle), instead of a gap higher and reversal Monday I would expect to see a gap down and go.

That would take everyone completely by surprise. It would not surprise me to see the market gap down and open under 1228 on Monday.

Again, I have no idea what will happen but this is my best guess for now. Even if the market doesn't gap down I will probably stay short with minor adjustments.

I'm not trying to encourage anyone to trade by posting this. Trading is a dangerous sport and most people lose money trying to outwit the market.

[Carl Lieberman]

Good luck Higgy. Cojones!

[OLD1953]

You'll have to give me a definition of serfdom that uses actual referents, because I don't know what you mean by that word in that context. I know what I mean by that word, but I don't know what you mean.

Fair enough http://www.fiscalaccountability.org/ind ... nt=cog09-4

Sorry for the wait, but it's hard to post anything from this place at this time.

I think I see what you mean, that excessive debt or taxation amounts to involunatry servitude. That site messes with the definitions though, they seem to use the numbers for the average or median citizen (I think median, but not sure) but don't separate the taxes out by quintile or normalize to that wage.

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/70xx/doc7000 ... xRates.pdf

Some of us reach tax freedom day in February, some in May or June, but nobody takes as long as that mythical average, because nobody with an average income pays that percentage of the yearly government spending. And nobody pays (at least not yet) the part they borrow. Nobody will ever pay the national debt either, it might be inflated away, it might be defaulted away or we might simply grow the economy more rapidly than spending so the percentage of the debt declines to a more reasonable level, but it won't be paid unless the singularity makes the whole thing moot.

The US had much higher rates between 1945 and 1964, but I don't recall anyone claiming we were serfs. We are much more nearly serfs due to the need for loans to purchase the necessities for work (please to note, I did NOT say "life", I said "work", if I didn't have to work my expenses would be cut hugely) because we have to have expensive items (cars, fuel, clothes, etc.) to work. I consider one of the major reasons our grandparents did not have as huge a debt problem as we do, is because you don't need a lot of that stuff working a manufacturing or agricultural job, or can get by more cheaply. Most of us don't get options, we buy or we don't get ahead. Myself, I haven't been able to get away from a corporate dress code for decades now. Try taking public transportation to a job at a major bank (outside New York City) and see how rapidly you can advance. We place far too much stock in appearances, but that's how the game is played, and we don't get to change the rules just because they make no sense.

What I'm trying to say is that we force ourselves into serfdom by trying to meet the unreasonable expectations of others, much more than we are forced into it by taxes or the actual needs of life. And I'm no more immune to social pressures than anyone else.

[aedens]

"in the end … this value is consumed; and then the portion of wealth, which passes from the hands of the taxpayer into those of the tax-gatherer, is destroyed and annihilated." http://mises.org/daily/1768

We have had this discussion before in the forums. I have noted the results only from the last 400 years as GD covers the effects of perception. What must be done to survive is act locally to preserve the common order as always. Cost will go up will it not? It has to since we understand the money stock is diluted.
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 210#p10297 <-------- bonds market issues a few convey soon, but the acount sweeps then will show the money now we consider as balance sheet repair but masked as balance sheet M2M currently for the new risk model they seek to consequences of management rights. The point was money "ratio" could disappear in sweeps and we must assume acounted for now.
We have the mechanism in the forums from the white paper earlier noted to acount functions.

The taxpayer is omitted from the logical natural state of affairs. Nobody said we do need protection on some levels but omitted is just a reality proscribed. The delinkage from Local and State Governance just enforces how the intial conveyance started above since they defy natural order of the Letter of intent for actual Check and Balances. We understand Caeser's garnered troops from under the bridges of Rome since the Senate made no provisions in there closed economy. We understand Lincolns intent to match the Kaisers intellectual pursuit that Social Security makes a better Soldier and to preserve the Union.
We understand the current affairs of Europes Conferation which was discussed and in todays context to GD cycles which we do not try to force into theory.
On my part alone I observe the ploy on regional bias alone. I offer no solution since we are to far advanced as we say of the infections of the consequences of ideological choice. We noted the Feds conveyance that there is no cycle since they have policy to administer in there observed view. We do note 1378 clusters of Business that control the systemic condition we are in and invest as such in my case in a Independant nature of thinking on the margin.
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/110 ... 5728v2.pdf
Musings as a attempt to convey which was seen decades ago by a few of us. I would be correct in saying a camera view differing on subtle topics.
Something we have all seen is the "Polish champion of freedom and liberty, founder of Solidarity, winner of the 1984 Nobel Peace Prize, and first President of modern Poland Lech Walesa had been rumored to possibly be traveling to New York to stand with Occupy Wall Street protesters. Based on our discussion and intervention, President Walesa is not going to get involved with the OWS. He is not comfortable with the “organizations” behind the movement. This spring, when President Obama visited Poland, President Walesa refused to meet with him.America is a center-right country politically. The Occupy movement, at its core, is a hard-left movement. If successful, America would cease to be governed on our founding principles of freedom and liberty. Thus, we react to the news that Lech Walesa will not support the OWS movement with much thankfulness."
http://biggovernment.com/aandrzejewsk/2 ... ot-attendi...
There is more to say but I cannot other than what we conveyed since Father Martin told us that it would take the people three generation to heal and conversly three generations in Philippic ironies at home it appears. Some do not understand Union.

On another note "Greece is the first battle of what comes to be known as The Cold War. His speech to the US congress asking for money to fight communism worldwide, but particularly in Greece, becomes known as The Truman Doctrine. America joining the fray is vindication of a sorts for Winston Churchill. President Roosevelt believed Great Britain's policies in Greece were a mistake and that people had the right to work out their problems democratically without influence from the outside." I feel the same way in a very volatile region with limited resources. http://www.ahistoryofgreece.com/civilwar.htm
I think Obama sent a clear message to the military in correct context to internal realities of other peoples problems. I still remember the Kurds being annialated as others watched with no regard so over all I have mixed emotions as was done in Poland also near the end of WW2 also to the western seeking freedom fighters who fought the Nazi as the Red Army watched the political theator playing out. The fact of the matter also it means my Nephew will be out of that region. For our family two generations in the Military in the middle east is enough. I do not hold any pretense about what will ensue to regional stability's and again I thank the forum's for views that convey trends we observe and John's work to conveying a sense on current affairs we can talk about.

[aedens]

The last ad hoc numbers on wage was 10:1 of wages from the United States to China. Do any of you have a current ratio?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... erica.html
I gathered inflation will decide. Public opinion at the moment is "and what was fixed"

[richard5za]

If the bears are going to be right, the S&P is likely to gap down on Monday morning.

The latest Clive Roffey chart on the S&P 500 is predicting that the rally has come to an end and will decline from here. Have a look at www.charts.co.za then click Charts then Daily.

May you make a bundle of loot!!

[aedens]

Forecast Made: Forecast For: Direction
October 23, 2011 October 24, 2011 UP

Probability for next day:

Up Probability Average amount (up) S&P 55% avup1.00% down prob 45% avdwn-.45%

artificial intelligence projection

Good luck Higg im sidelined until after 27th long
========================================================================================= result
Index Value: 1,254.19
Trade Time: Oct 24
Change: 15.94 (1.29%)
Close Index Value: 11,913.62
Change: 104.83 (0.89%)

[richard5za]

The latest Clive Roffey chart on the S&P 500 is predicting that the rally has come to an end

I am wondering what sort of market we are dealing with? Are the recent buy signals for gold, silver and platinum valid? Aree the sell signals for Dow and S&P valid? OR were these false signals and we are still waiting for deciding break ups or downs? Its difficult for me to believe that the S&P will run upwards a lot more. Perhaps the analysis is valid and all we need are nerves of steel?
Richard

[richard5za]

S&P 500

Today I've done a full market review and I'm 90% confident that the S&P 500 sell signal is valid. It may go a bit higher for a short while, but its medium term direction is down. Likewise I'm confident of the buy signal on South African gold miners. From time to time the market makes fools of us all, but if you can be right 70% of the time you should make good money.

[aedens]

October 24, 2011 was posted
S&P October 25, 2011 leaning lower
Up Probability Average amount (up) S&P 49% .6%
Probability Average amount (down) 51%
Average amount (down)-.84%

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ecofin-meeting-cancelled 10/25/2011 - 09:39
We will see up.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/
hedge accordingly
S&P 500 1,241.70 -5.40 1,247.10 1,254.40 1,240.40 Time 09:14
Im not trading today. John called this mess in 2005 anyways. http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 18#e050618
I think it will be bad for the vertical thinking buerocracy who think the world of themselves. There are competant civil servants and we needed them
some time ago.
As for the algo's who knows. One thing I remember is once M&A cease the time is near.