Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

OK, guys, you know where I stand.

Barbara Tuchman wrote:Mankind was not improved by the message. Consciousness of wickedness made behavior worse. Violence threw off restraints. It was a time of default. Rules crumbled, institutions failed in their functions. Knighthood did not protect; the Church, more worldly than spiritual, did not guide the way to God; the towns, once agents of progress and the commonweal, were absorbed in mutual hostilities and divided by class war; the population, depleted by the Black Death, did not recover. The war of England and France and the brigandage it spawned revealed the emptiness of chivalry's military pretensions and the falsity of its moral ones. The schism shook the foundations of the central institution, spreading a deep and pervasive uneasiness. People felt subject to events beyond their control, swept like flotsam at sea, hither and yon in a universe without reason or purpose. They lived through a period which suffered and struggled without visible advance. They longed for remedy, for a revival of faith, for stability and order that never came.

A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous 14th Century

Only the lawyers will know. Our case took a few years on SPEs. In the end the Court agreed covenant obligations were violated. I was not the Pricipal in the case. Forensic accounting firm's will sort. If a special purpose entity was set up within an orphan structure to circumvent regulatory restrictions they are toast.
This is profile assets so we will have to wait to see what can be released if public assets are in the risk model. The models are constructed now to resolve much quicker now.

If backdated options to remunerate executives and other insiders by allowing them to receive more favorable (i.e. lower) option strike prices and a corresponding larger amount of executive compensation. Prior to June 15, 2005 and the implementation of SFAS 123R, most corporations valued option grants using the "intrinsic method", which provided incentive for the backdating of options. According to one authoritative study, 18.9% of unscheduled, at the money option grants to top executives during the period 1996-2005 were backdated or otherwise manipulated.

Goldman will play this straight up IMO since we have already covered this in the forums to oversite teams. I am not naive and this is a indication that sometimes the system can work as planned.

http://www.tamcoforensicgroup.com/Clien ... ntList.htm

If the regulators find a orphan structure this should happen. -------> http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/b ... aaf-wp8931

Very gloomy OECD economic forecast today for growth figures 2011 and 2012 for USA and Europe (in fact global)

Higgie, this could be the trigger needed to put your S&P short into profit

(courtesy of the WSJ):

1) Lehman Brothers Holdings, September 2008: $691 billion in assets
2) Washington Mutual, September 2008: $327.9 billion
3) WorldCom, July 2002: $103.9 billion
4) General Motors, June 2009: $91 billion
5) CIT Group, November 2009: $80.4 billion
6) Enron, 2001: $65.5 billion
7) Conseco, 2002: $61.4 billion
MF Global: $41 billion (as of Sept. 30)
8) Chrysler April, 2009: $39.3 billion
9) Thornburg Mortgage May, 2009: $36.5 billion
10) Pacific Gas & Electric Co., 2001: $36.15 billion

We will never know the scope for some time.

Corzine, the former head of investment banking giant Goldman Sachs Group Inc., oversaw MF Global as it amassed $6 billion in debt issued by financially strapped European countries such as Italy, Spain and Portugal. Their bonds paid bigger returns than U.S. Treasury debt because bond investors believed that they were more likely to default
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/MF-Global ... et=&ccode=

They will never learn since reality is shocks only to there delusional system. We have bubbles in the real world of the taxpayers.
This anger may push the Voters to reality. It will take longer here on a GD Dynamics of my opinion only.
The amount of decades as we conveyed as infection, and they do not have to care translates to the
VOTER GETS ALL HE DESERVES. No we are not Monday morning quarterbacks around here also and Higgs intuition was correct.
If we consider Koo's point to direct fiat to government bonds I would convey it was never a thought in there infinite growth
debt bond fantasy the word NO, so they will stay educated enough to ignore reality. Americans will not acept Japans debt to GDP ratio.
The Burke method of slowly make them submitt will explode in there face sooner not later.
If you walk into the path of a bus by accident of not paying attention on your part does not mean the bus driver was not speeding anyway.
Your negligence and his speeding can be witnesed by 100 people who will have say different things to the cause.
It changes nothing. Debt saturation is a infection in the long term. Remove the debt burden and they are not needed in Government
other than defined scope we wish not them.
Grats Higg.

Higgenbotham wrote:I am 100% short at the close, average short is S&P 1233.

Trading is a dangerous sport and most people lose money trying to outwit the market.

Posted 10 days ago.

Covered all shorts tonight for about a 15 point loss. There'a a lot of data coming out this week, so I'm going to gamble that there will be enough volatility to get in higher at some point later in the week.

aedens wrote:Grats Higg, we both made money on these idiots.

Still working on it, but one thought is that although the backdrop is very poor there may be some hedgies who have their backs to the wall who may have some more S&P shorts to dump.

Higgenbotham wrote:

Higgenbotham wrote:I am 100% short at the close, average short is S&P 1233.

Trading is a dangerous sport and most people lose money trying to outwit the market.

Posted 10 days ago.

aedens wrote:Grats Higg.

Still working on it, but one thought is that although the backdrop is very poor there may be some hedgies who have their backs to the wall who may have some more S&P shorts to dump.

They are targets as rentiers. They will peel them like layers on a onion.

Oh my goodness! There might be something illegal going on at MF Global! Who would have thought such an unthinkable thing!

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/31/ ... mf-global/

Federal regulators have discovered that hundreds of millions of dollars in customer money has gone missing from MF Global in recent days, prompting an investigation into the brokerage firm, which is run by Jon S. Corzine, the former New Jersey governor, several people briefed on the matter said on Monday.

The recognition that money was missing scuttled at the 11th hour an agreement to sell a major part of MF Global to a rival brokerage firm. MF Global had staked its survival on completing the deal. Instead, the New York-based firm filed for bankruptcy on Monday.

Regulators are examining whether MF Global diverted some customer funds to support its own trades as the firm teetered on the brink of collapse.

Higgie,
Just had a look at the S&P 500 and your short is showing a modest profit! I have a feeling that October's gains will be fully lost in November. So little news in the media on the very gloomy OECD economic forecast for USA and Europe! Projecting Europe in 2012 at 0.3% growth. Amazing!

richard5za wrote:Higgie,
Just had a look at the S&P 500 and your short is showing a modest profit! I have a feeling that October's gains will be fully lost in November. So little news in the media on the very gloomy OECD economic forecast for USA and Europe! Projecting Europe in 2012 at 0.3% growth. Amazing!

I'm no longer position short the S&P though I did take a couple pecks out of the short side today. Next big move in my opinion will be up and, if so, I will try again and post it in real time as I did my exit last night.

As far as news, MF Global is a big story. Really, that quote above from Tuchman was meant to show the parallels.

It was a time of default. MF Global
Rules crumbled. Segregated accounts
Institutions failed in their functions. CFTC

Now does anybody still doubt that their broker can fail and they can lose all their money? I know a few things about MF Global from experience that I will keep to myself. Suffice it to say this story has the potential to be very, very big.

I believe the fallout will have a big psychological impact. Leveraged positions may be unwound. The markets may gyrate.

If the S&P cracks to the downside overnight I will not be on board the choo-choo. If there's a rally and I get back on board, there may be nice sized electronic digits in my account but only a pretty electronic statement for my grandkids to view and frame if the dominoes fall.

I agree the S&P will take out all of October's gains by the end of this month.

FBI Will Look into MF Global's Missing Millions
By John Hudson | The Atlantic Wire – 7 mins ago

http://news.yahoo.com/fbi-look-mf-globa ... 53526.html

In a mere 24-hours, MF Global has gone from being a bankrupt brokerage firm with a famous CEO to a federal investigation soon involving the FBI. NBC New York reports that the FBI alongside federal prosecutors are about to join the investigation into how as much as $700 million went missing from the accounts of clients at MF Global, the brokerage lead by former New Jersey Governor and the CEO of Goldman Sachs Jon Corzine. In a separate inquiry, the Justice Department, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodities Future Trading Commission will also be investigating the firm's collapse, according to the report. An SEC spokesman tells NBC New York that MF Global has "possible deficiencies in customer futures segregated accounts held at the firm.”