Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

aedens wrote:It will be event driven.

I agree. The herd is driving the events and responding to the news.

The herd is not watching the center, they are watching the outliers. In such times as these, the center cannot hold, so the readings from the outliers become irrelevant.

By next fall, Italy will go the route of Greece, and there is not enough money in Europe to rescue Italy.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzn ... d=rss_home

The language of Rule1.29 allows “The investment of customer funds in instruments described in 1.29 shall not prevent the futures commission merchant (MF Global) or clearing organization so investing such funds and retaining as its own any increment or interest resulting therefrom.”

Higgenbotham wrote:The herd is driving the events and responding to the news.

Yes, you are right. It will be a down day today on the NYSE looking at the futures and stocks in Europe.

One of the few markets, at present, with a genuine direction is gold.

Greetings,

I just discovered this.

https://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011 ... aphic.html

Regards,

Higgenbotham wrote:

aedens wrote:It will be event driven.

I agree. The herd is driving the events and responding to the news.

http://seop.leeds.ac.uk/entries/ceteris-paribus/

The window was meet Higg. I will not buy or sell today. Be carefull and humble.

From yesterday.

Higgenbotham wrote:The 14 month polarity inversion of the herd off the flash crash discussed earlier this year is still correlating (now August 27, 2010 low to October 27, 2011 high) and there was not enough short covering fuel into the 18 month cycle inversion to break it. This would tend to indicate a secondary high but it would need to be confirmed by a reversal tomorrow, I believe. This lower high is in my interpretation more bearish than if a low had been put in today. Though the S&P will need to take out 1200 to prove that thesis and if that happens a new fork in the road presents itself.

aedens wrote:It will be event driven.

Higgenbotham wrote:The herd is driving the events and responding to the news.

It appears the tea leaves are being read correctly on this forum. My tea leaves continue to say that THE generational panic will occur before the end of November. 2008 was not it. The event will likely be a major bankruptcy or recognition of a bankruptcy. We will enter full blown Fourth Turning at that time.

This comes to mind again as possibly being relevant. In the 1340s Italy didn't exist as a country (that's according to my medieval history maps) but the Italian city-states were the financial capitals of Europe. Now Italy has surfaced in the news, though I should clarify that the role of Italy is not the same.

Higgenbotham wrote:When Edward III started the Hundred Years War in 1337, the Bardi and Peruzzi (Florentine banks) provided about half of the loans for this effort, only to have Edward go bankrupt, and by 1343 both the Bardi and Peruzzi were also bankrupt. According to this source, the Florentine government intervened to keep the Bardi solvent, but the scheme failed and the Bardi collapsed three years later in 1346.

http://books.google.com/books?id=53ZBMP ... #PPA110,M1_

I like the part where it says in so many words that the Bardi was thought to be "too big to fail" so the Florentine government "kicked the can down the road" at taxpayer expense. I know of no other situation in world history this similar to the financial events of 2008-2011.

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 1343#p4659
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 1343#p6951

Subjecting the United States to a economic controll burn. I find the pattern as do you in context of time also.
They assume they can control the wind direction. Views, tea leaves are no different just level of equity contracts.
Common law exceptions to the general rule, allowing rights to third parties and some impositions of obligations.
The taxpayers are serfs to support others only. They wander the streets today unknowing that there next
step is blood money from there Master's as a call to order. Ship of fools we already conveyed.
Earlier surety for the enforcement was free man becoming no man, of "whatever estate or condition he may be"
and introduced the phrase "due process of law" for "lawful judgement of his peers or the law of the land"
So what rights do investors have since they are which class in true contextual reality.
So called unique allures and variety of strategies.
Human Action.

Higgenbotham wrote: I like the part where it says in so many words that the Bardi was thought to be "too big to fail" so the Florentine government "kicked the can down the road" at taxpayer expense. I know of no other situation in world history this similar to the financial events of 2008-2011.

I think this pattern has been repeated over and over, at least that was my take from reading "This Time is Different". To me the pattern seems to be:

1) Banks take in demand deposits and loan most of them out long term like 10 or 20 years
This is called "fractional reserve banking" but should be called "not matching terms on
deposits and loans" or "fraudulently telling depositors they can take their money at
any time when really the bank is not always able to handle it".
2) At some point banks are sure to get in trouble because there is always some amount
of withdrawls from the demand deposit accounts that they can not handle.
= "Banking Crisis"
3) Government bails out the banks.
4) Government get too much debt and get in trouble = "sovereign debt crisis"
5) Central bank bail out the government = monetizing debt = printing money
6) Currency Crisis

To me it looks like this happens over and over and over again in any place where banks do not match the terms on deposits and loans, which seems to be all Western banking.

http://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Differe ... =pd_cp_b_1