Financial topics

[vincecate]

Euro Pacific has an interesting article on how they think things will unfold:

http://www.europac.net/commentaries/beg ... fiat_money

He's got it exactly right. The only thing he gets wrong is the idea that anyone needs to do something now. I am waiting for stages 1 through 3 to progress as he outlines it and it will be obvious when the metals hit bottom. Even if there is no stage 4, the idea will be to watch the metals and look for the right time to buy when everyone turns bearish and gives up.

Higgie, I think you watch the markets more than the average person and have a chance to move at the optimal time. I think most people are better off to get a good position now than to try to time anything just right.

[OLD1953]

Higgs - since S&P closed below 1240 I assume you made something on those shorts.

The increase in exports last month is interesting, as it indicates the effect of factories moving to the south is having an effect. If this is the primary cause, we will see further reductions in the trade deficit in the coming year, perhaps not in dollar amount per se but in the percentage ratio.

I'd say more, but I'm using a tablet to post, and typing is quite frustrating.

[richard5za]

Extract from Clive Roffey's website of 11 November (he is in London at present) which I publish as some readers may be interested:

"The main London news remains the bickering over the Italian and Greek debts. Euro politicians are running around like headless chickens, all crying that a plan is required but nobody having any credible concepts. Frankly any plan will be like attempting to stem the blood flow from a carotid artery falure with a bandaid. This is all fantastic Elliott Wave conceptual analysis. I remain bullish on the gold sector and bearish on the rest."

[Higgenbotham]

Higgie, I think you watch the markets more than the average person and have a chance to move at the optimal time. I think most people are better off to get a good position now than to try to time anything just right.

In 2004, I got a call from a woman who is a nurse. She was asking a friend who might know how to invest money. I met her and spent 8 hours explaining all my research at the time. At the end, I advised her to put 1/3 of her money in gold ($400 at the time), 1/3 in stocks (Dow 11,000 at the time), and 1/3 in cash treasury bills (paying 1% at the time, but as much as 5% in later years). No bonds and no real estate.

There were 2 interesting results that came out of that. First, she was a pretty intelligent person but I figured out that she really understood nothing I told her. It was too complex. Second, she opted not to buy gold but to buy a duplex instead because friends and family she talked to said not to buy gold and that real estate always goes up. I remember her telling me later that one of her friends said that I didn't understand the "butterfly effect".

Back to your comment. If that person had followed my advice and done nothing, today I would tell her to pull out of all her stocks and reallocate to 50% gold and 50% cash and forget about it. That would mean she might sell some of her gold because it has outperformed everything else by a wide margin. Since she didn't follow my advice, I'm not sure what I'd tell her. Probably to stay 100% in cash and wait.

And I guess the moral of the story is that it's not a good idea to poll your friends and family in order to figure out how to invest.

[Higgenbotham]

Higgs - since S&P closed below 1240 I assume you made something on those shorts.

Old, I haven't yet. Still sitting on a slight loss. I lost about 8 points before settling in at 1240 and the futures are up 8 points tonight.

[aedens]

Given our structure as Higg conveyed from the 1400 crisis. I agree in the contruct of affairs in terms.
Middle English seurte, from Anglo-French seurté, from Latin securitat-, securitas security, from securus
First Known Use: 14th century
One who has become legally liable for the debt, default, or failure in duty of another.
Correctly identified in the forums is crisis of debasement and usury bonds.
We may differ on inception of origen but the axis point conveyed was august 15th 1971
for to the event debasement driven issue we are seeing. We have been sternly warned of the precepts of
contract and property rights. And the Houses as a expiedient terms of capital control.
The modifiers we are seeing today is similar to a flow dynamic to be simple.
The transmission as in terminal velosity is only checked by the size of the conduit
irregardless of the inital pool. Funding between litigants as surety is the issue
from internal checks, not external at the moment for surety to preform another duty
since legal definition of contract has been denied to the common man we transmitt
as crony captilism. Funding acounts is a oversite of control to Legal custodial stewards.
Given that the surety was denied it was policy just for that purpose to deny the serfs
due propery rights. A older man conveyed when the sheep are skinned and not sheared
capital is denied under common law. So I avoid that contractual premise to settlements.
I use serfs as a connotation of manorisms they are subject under for know.
This is in context to futures contract acounts. They can be skinned at will until
accounts are granted status as property rights for surety. I noted the context earlier as no man
under common law. This will not suit the statist bent of mind since we know its gravity.
Minor houses percieved as risk will be deemed wards.

"Earlier surety for the enforcement was free man becoming no man, of "whatever estate or condition he may be"
and introduced the phrase "due process of law" for "lawful judgement of his peers or the law of the land"
So what rights do investors have since they are which class in true contextual reality.
So called unique allures and variety of strategies."

Europa is ideologically unsustainable as documented in GD overview. The rest is history as we very
well know. Avoid the sheep pens and subjects as serfs. Lord Acton clearly conveyed this observation
on Banks and Subjects.

Euro politicians are running around like headless chickens, all crying that a plan is required but nobody having any credible concepts.
No that is a ruse.

[Higgenbotham]

Middle English seurte, from Anglo-French seurté, from Latin securitat-, securitas security, from securus
First Known Use: 14th century
One who has become legally liable for the debt, default, or failure in duty of another.
Correctly identified in the forums is crisis of debasement and usury bonds.

.

We may differ on inception of origen but the axis point conveyed was august 15th 1971.

I don't disagree. Nixon said "We are all Keynesians now", but it would have been more accurate to have said "We have all now become 14th Century Europeans". Though maybe it could be said to have been formalized later in various ways.

Citi's 1980 entry into South Dakota being a bailout reference also.

But it was 1980, South Dakota's economy was a mess, and suspicion was an instinct that Janklow could not afford. "We were in the poor house,'' he recalled. "It cost 42 cents a bushel in 1980 to haul wheat. When something's only selling for $2.20 a bushel, you certainly can't afford to be paying almost 50 cents a bushel to ship it.''
The calls were from Citibank, which was having a serious problem of its own. "It was very simple,'' said Walter Wriston, then the chairman of Citibank. "We were going broke.''
The unlikely alliance would clear the way for Citibank to turn a money-losing credit card operation into a vastly profitable business. "All of their senior people used to say it,'' Mr. Janklow said. "That South Dakota saved Citibank. I believe it did. That South Dakota saved Citibank.''
Read more: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline ... z1dNKKXGdY

Which is basically how the medieval conglomerates operated.

[aedens]

""A Regulation setting up an O[ptional] I[nstrument] of European Contract Law would improve the functioning of the internal market."
European Parliament (Wallis Report)

Funny you mention corn prices. The farm broke even at $2.32 a bussel then. It was the last year it was planted.
Many reasons on the platform of so called policy then. Back then 400 acres was a no go model, Unless you
buckled to subsidy to grow to 4000 plus acres. Many enumerated facts on current issues I have been hearing
but to complex to convey for now. Euro is in desparation mode. The script for freedom will be hard work
and our Senate needs to secure contract rights to acount now. They must not linger in platitudes. They need to
secure the boom base and we know what ratio they are to underpinnings.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBzGuqht ... re=related

I do respect my British Cousins.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsVZ4Vep ... re=related

Never read the last page first. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVLV7LxK ... re=related

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/283060

Napoleanic Contract Law. Right...

[aedens]

Higg,

Prosecutors currently follow a money trail between Austria, Switzerland and Panama that originated at the - of all places - money printing company OeBS (Oesterreichische Banknoten und Sicherheitsdruck Gesellschaft), a 100% subsidiary of OeNB.
According to latest reports by state TV ORF authorities have taken the 2 former CEOs of OeBS and 2 lawyers into custody. A spokeswoman of the state prosecutor said there are allegations of money laundering and other issues.
Together with other local media reports it appears that the OeBS employees may have developed a kickback system through a Panama shell, Venkoy, that was known to OeNB governor Ewald Nowotny, according to protocols of supervisory board meetings which he led. OeNB had fired the 2 heads of OeSB by October 28 after finding out about the theft and reported the matter to authorities.

What are you seeing starboard side?

The central bank of the country - whose "Creditanstalt 1931" 'event' should be a reminder to the exceptions of the 'not possible' situations - threw more light into the lucrative corners of money printing, saying provisions of 20% for deal helpers were a "usual" part of the game.

Conveyed earlier: Euro politicians are running around like headless chickens, all crying that a plan is required but nobody having any credible concepts.
No that is a ruse.
We already posited flight clusters a few pages back. I am on lockdown and fade given the infection. Typical GD.

distribution haze can be fatal be carefull: http://seekingalpha.com/article/304588- ... about-etfs

It continues to baffle me why so many Western commentators and policymakers seem to ignore pretty strong evidence that this “global imbalance” has turned significantly for the better. Goldman's Jim O'Neill

[Higgenbotham]

Higg,
What are you seeing starboard side?

Below is a technical comparison to a market that crashed earlier this year I have been following for weeks. For the last 12 sessions the comparison has been nearly exact. The next 3 weeks will tell the tale. A CNBC article yesterday said a think tank has determined a 65% chance of this outcome using scenario analysis. Two years from Dubai it would be.



http://i42.tinypic.com/17g3kg.jpg

I don't believe MF itself is systemic but it may be a canary in the coal mine of a liquidity crunch. Credit lines as I mentioned when the news broke may not have been pulled soon enough is what I'm suspecting. Goes back to your 14th Century post of yesterday.

The medieval conglomerates did not make errors and neither do these. If (fill in the blank "person of influence") said it, it's automatically true but if you said it, it needs to be proven. Same goes with your money.

Regarding ETFs, those who are bearish should think about whether it is worth the risk to hold inverse ETFs for long periods of time due to the fact that there is decay. Some people on this board were recommending them 2 years ago. I stayed out of that debate at the time but rarely use these.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fu ... r%20Symbol