Financial topics

[richard5za]

Further to my message recently that I was having great difficult reading this market, that Ann Barnhardt letter that John published today finally decided me to take profits and liquidate my positions which I have done. I got 13% profit on my miners and 8% on gold.
It puts me up 27.5% year to date on miners which is a happy position and unless a glaring opportunity arises I will observe the machinations of this completely mad market from a position of cash. Insanity rules.

[Higgenbotham]

Senator Roberts Calls for Hearing on MF Global Bankruptcy
Nov 17 2011

WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Senator Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) today called on Senate Agriculture Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) to hold a hearing on the collapse and bankruptcy of MF Global, given its devastating effect on the agriculture industry.

Roberts has also called on the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the exchanges, and the bankruptcy trustee to work together to immediately release frozen MF Global margin account funds to customers, many who are Kansans.

This effort is in addition to Roberts’ concern over the timing and extent of CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler’s recusal due to his prior relationship with former MF Global CEO Jon Corzine. Roberts’ two letters requesting answers about the date and scope of this recusal have gone unanswered.

The following is the text of the letter sent to Chairwoman Stabenow today:

I write to you today regarding a pressing matter deserving of our committee’s urgent action. The MF Global, Inc. bankruptcy is a critically important event that is having a devastating effect on farmers, country grain elevators, hog and cattle operations and bankers across the country. I respectfully request that the committee conduct a hearing focused solely on this matter as soon as possible...

http://roberts.senate.gov/public/index. ... 6cdf664908

[Higgenbotham]

Panic Selling Sends Jefferies Into Tailspin as Company Tries to Fend Off Rumors
Traders seem to believe firm is next MF Global, Bear Stearn, or Lehman Brothers
November 18, 2011 12:08 PM EST

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/252318/ ... global.htm

Higgenbotham » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:40 pm

Another cycle.

May 11, 1931
Credit Anstalt declares bankruptcy.

August 15, 1971
Nixon declares bankruptcy (reneges on international gold standard - Bretton Woods agreement).

There are 14,706 calendar days between these 2 events. Adding 14,706 days to August 15, 1971 is:

November 19, 2011
Watch for a major declaration of bankruptcy around this date. This could be our generational panic time frame.

My opinion is the cycle is early and what may appear to be the worst to many will continue to worsen.

[Higgenbotham]

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UngNtTVYLjU/T ... B23.29.jpg

Found this on a blog tonight. Prechter is apparently looking for the Elliott Wave 3 of 3 to begin, which in Elliott lingo means the big crash. I don't do Elliott Wave but we're on the same page. I'm sure his web site explains the 3 of 3 concept.

[Higgenbotham]

There was something in one of my recent posts that was unclear.

In 2009, sales of semiconductor equipment as reported in the book to bill fell below the low in sales in the early 2000s. However, it needs to be noted that, in 2009, worldwide sales of semiconductor chips themselves were considerably higher than at the low in sales in the early 2000s. Equipment sales are more of a second derivative function. It should also be noted that the dollar value of semiconductor chip sales far exceeds the dollar value of equipment sales.

To imply that worldwide sales of semiconductors will fall below the low in sales in the early 2000s would probably be seen by industry experts as totally laughable, but I think it's more likely than not given the GD realities which are outside the view of the industry experts.

Gartner Says Semiconductor Inventory Correction Dampening Sales in Second Half of 2011
Reduced Sales Relative to Expectations Are Leading to a Rise in Days of Inventory

STAMFORD, Conn., November 17, 2011— 
As many semiconductor vendors announced relatively weak sales for the third quarter of 2011, and pre-announced poor guidance for the fourth quarter, the anticipated inventory correction is well under way, according to Gartner, Inc. Gartner analysts expect that this process will continue to dampen sales prospects for at least the remainder of the year before sequential growth can return in 2012.

http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1851314
http://www.gartner.com/it/section.jsp?t ... hived=true

Most recent press release. My prediction is that growth will not return in 2012 and we will see downward revision after downward revision as far as the eye can see, but I'm the crackpot here.

[aedens]

That is exactly what they want. You will see those "unconnected" firms fail since
the optimal strategy requires continuous rebalancing, which is impossible in practice.
That was the mathematical fact in 2008 for delta funds.

synthetic-cdo.jpg (16.4 KiB) Viewed 9909 times

[Higgenbotham]

That is exactly what they want. The system is cannibal now.

Yes, like a coworker used to say, "Even Ray Charles can see it now." Wave 3 of 3, in other words.

[aedens]

A sale of MF Global's 4.7 percent stake could shift the odds in the takeover battle for the LME, the world's biggest metal market, which has thrown its doors open to a potential 1 billion pound ($1.6 billion) takeover.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/ ... ompanyNews

[Higgenbotham]

I am 100% short at the close, average short is S&P 1233 (October 21).

Covered all shorts tonight for about a 15 point loss (October 31).

50% short from S&P 1240 (November 2 am).
Update - 100% short from S&P 1240 (November 2 pm).

Covered 20% at about S&P 1205. Futures are down about 10 points tonight.
80% short now (November 20 pm).

I may get rid of a little more if the market falls another 50 points.

[aedens]

“Victori exuviae”
http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@ ... 111711.pdf
When your entire neighborhood is on fire it is not a good time to argue the bad structure and poor management practices of the Fire Department.
Rather, please make sure the firemen have plenty of water and leak-proof hoses. s/d
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... p?f=5&t=27
Reg T needs to be amended yesterday to moderate reality and we did see some coordination IMO. The rest is vanity.
Prior to the 14th century vanity did not have such narcissistic undertones, and merely meant futility.
Caeser:
All Gaul is divided into three parts, one of which the Belgae inhabit, the Aquitani another, those who in their own language are called Celts, in our Gauls, the third. All these differ from each other in language, customs and laws.