Financial topics

[Marc]

I'm near a key military base which would be very key in the event of nuclear attack. I guess I just live with it Again, I respectfully feel that we have more rabbits to pull out of the global financial hat for awhile and thus am personally not expecting a global financial collapse in 2012. But again, I'm not a guru here, and could end up eating my words. —Best regards, Marc

[Trevor]

We might be able to delay it for a short time, but I don't see us delaying it for much longer, especially in light of Greece's imminent default, although I'm still surprised they haven't. Italy and Spain are rapidly crashing and even Germany's feeling the squeeze.

Well, I'm not sure if you're at the age where you can be conscripted, but yeah, living next to a key military base would be rather hazardous.

[Marc]

Thanks for the further, thoughtful insights. I'm an early-wave X'er, and thus might be passed over in the event of a military national emergency, but you never know.... —Best regards/Peace, Marc

[Trevor]

In that case, they might draft you if things get really desperate. I'm a relatively early Millennial (born 1989) so I'm well within the range of getting drafted. I think the financial collapse will start sometime next year and run its course in 12-18 months. The war will probably start a couple years after that, perhaps by China desperately trying to avert a civil war by projecting their anger towards an outside enemy. It's what I'd do in their situation.

[Marc]

China is definitely a worrisome tinderbox. I can also see it veering towards civil war, and the Chinese leadership trying to "deflect" it some way. I wish that any civil war there would just stay a civil war, of course....

And, I guess if we must have a near-future financial collapse, that maybe it at least can wait until 2013: That's the Fed's Centennial year.... —Best regards/Further peace, Marc

[Trevor]

Yeah, but the leaders know China's history and will be anxious to avoid that, hence their brutal crackdowns. They can also delude themselves into thinking they can fight a quick war against us and that we will have no will to fight back, same as what Japan believed. Never underestimate the human capacity for self-delusion; seems to be quite common in crisis eras. It would also be advisable for us not to get overconfident.

With our financial collapse, I think it'll truly begin sometime in 2012, and 2013.... will either be a continuation of that or it'll be the recovery after the depression has run its course.

[Marc]

Yeah, but the leaders know China's history and will be anxious to avoid that, hence their brutal crackdowns. They can also delude themselves into thinking they can fight a quick war against us and that we will have no will to fight back, same as what Japan believed. Never underestimate the human capacity for self-delusion; seems to be quite common in crisis eras. It would also be advisable for us not to get overconfident.

With our financial collapse, I think it'll truly begin sometime in 2012, and 2013.... will either be a continuation of that or it'll be the recovery after the depression has run its course.

I agree that your thinking in regards to China's thinking is, if not entirely spot-on (not that you're not bright, but just since we all lack crystal balls and Chinese mind-probes, including me!) is at least heavily spot-on.

I think that if/when we have an economic depression in the near-term future, that there may be a strong temptation and ability to try to do additional heavy interceding in the national/global economy to slow the rate of collapse; as such, this could make for a much longer economic-depression period. Again, just my own thoughts there.... —Best regards, Marc

[thomasglee]

Yeah, but the leaders know China's history and will be anxious to avoid that, hence their brutal crackdowns. They can also delude themselves into thinking they can fight a quick war against us and that we will have no will to fight back, same as what Japan believed. Never underestimate the human capacity for self-delusion; seems to be quite common in crisis eras. It would also be advisable for us not to get overconfident.

With our financial collapse, I think it'll truly begin sometime in 2012, and 2013.... will either be a continuation of that or it'll be the recovery after the depression has run its course.

Delusion is a valid point. I've discussed China with many of my friends and they always say, "China needs our money" or "we owe China so much, they'll never go to war with us". They overlook the delusional aspect of the Chinese and they forget about the matter of Chinese pride. That's why they'll fight for Taiwan some day because of pride more than anything.....

[Marc]

I remember visiting an online article not terribly long ago and then looking at the Comments section for it. The article was about an educated man's theory that there was a significant chance of the US getting into a war with China. (Sorry, I forgot the source of the article.) The comments were huge in number, and almost entirely expressed outrage and derision about how the US and China could go to war with each other, echoing similar arguments to what Thomas just posted. I likewise could only shake my head in regards to just how myopic so many Americans can be after reading those comments. —Best regards, Marc

[thomasglee]

I remember visiting an online article not terribly long ago and then looking at the Comments section for it. The article was about an educated man's theory that there was a significant chance of the US getting into a war with China. (Sorry, I forgot the source of the article.) The comments were huge in number, and almost entirely expressed outrage and derision about how the US and China could go to war with each other, echoing similar arguments to what Thomas just posted. I likewise could only shake my head in regards to just how myopic so many Americans can be after reading those comments. —Best regards, Marc

I'm a HUGE college football fan and frequent a CFB message board. Being that's it's mainly (I'm an old foggy there) young, educated (or getting educated) men, I would think half of them would have a clue. But whenever a thread gets started on China (we talk a lot of global events too, not just CFB), I would venture to say that AT LEAST 98% haven't a clue about what's going on in the world - and they REALLY have NO CLUE when it comes to Asia (especially China).