Generational Dynamics World View News

[Guest]

Biden needs to come out forcefully against China or all hell will break loose. The Chinese are smelling blood in the water now.

[Guest]

The Eu just signed a massive trade deal with hellscape China. Why are American troops still defending Europe?

[John]

** 29-Dec-2020 World View: EU - China investment deal

> The Eu just signed a massive trade deal with hellscape China. Why
> are American troops still defending Europe?

This is an investment deal, not a trade deal, and has to be approved
by a majority in the European Parliament.

I just saw an interview on Bloomberg TV with Reinhard Bütikofer,
European Parliament China Delegation Chair. The following are my
notes:

Skeptical of this investment deal, and wonders why the European
Commission, which is negotiating the deal, is in such a rush.
The investment deal, if approved, would be a precursor
to a full-scale trade deal.
Issues of forced labor in China are not addressed by the deal,
even though European Parliament has said that they should be.
Public perception of China has been worsening.
Germany has the most trade with China, and is pushing the
deal. Other countries want to stall.
It's not clear whether or not the European legislature will
approve the deal.

[Cool Breeze]

If you had to pick 1, what sets off the Chinese beginning to start a war or provoke an oncoming one (such as invading Taiwan or messing with Japan)?

A global financial and economic crisis?
A fight with a neighbor (as you've said, India or Russia)?
Famine/plague and revolution ideas of their own people?

I actually fear that it will be the US, not China, who ends up starting the war. Our own foreign policy elite has proven to be just as reckless as the CCP, if not more so.

When will we "start" it or after who does what?

[Bob Butler]

When will we "start" it or after who does what?

The problem with a war in Hong Kong is that the US really doesn’t want to fight a land war in Asia. The problem with Taiwan is that China really doesn’t want to fight a sea war with the US. Still, both countries want to distract attention from how poorly they handled the virus among other things, so there will be a good deal of smoke and mirrors. I anticipate much noise and complaint.

If something starts it could well be China in Hong Kong but they do not want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs, and they do not want to start anything that resembles a revolution. They are currently walking a fine line that keeps it police rather than military. I suspect that will continue.

Sorry, but major powers have not fought a crisis war in the Information Age. Not issuing a War of the Week alert may not be quite so popular here, but I don't see it in the near future.

[DaKardii]

When will we "start" it or after who does what?

Honestly, who knows? I just don't trust our government to not be the one who starts it.

[John]

** 29-Dec-2020 World View: Possible airstrike on Shia militias in Iraq

We are now two days away from the one year anniversary of the
assassination of Gen. Qassim Soleimani, Iran's most important military
figure, and head of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He was
killed by an American airstrike at Baghdad’s international airport in
Iraq.

** 4-Jan-20 World View -- Iran faces tough choices after Soleimani assassination
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200104


Michael Pregent, an analyst at the Washington DC based Hudson
Institute, was interviewed today on al-Jazeera.

According to Pregent, Iran-backed Shia militias in Iraq are planning
attacks on American forces in Iraq to commemorate the assassination.
According to Pregent, American forces are expecting an attack and will
defend themselves, and may also defend themselves proactively. I
interpret this to mean that American forces may launch some kind of
attack in anticipation. One possibility is the assassination of
another Shia militia leader like Soleimani.

[Cool Breeze]

Sorry, but major powers have not fought a crisis war in the Information Age. Not issuing a War of the Week alert may not be quite so popular here, but I don't see it in the near future.

I always slow our friends roll here too. I say economic crisis before any war, as stated in my prediction. I have 2022-25 for economic major problems, and 2027-30 for the war issues.

[Bob Butler]

Sorry, but major powers have not fought a crisis war in the Information Age. Not issuing a War of the Week alert may not be quite so popular here, but I don't see it in the near future.

I always slow our friends roll here too. I say economic crisis before any war, as stated in my prediction. I have 2022-25 for economic major problems, and 2027-30 for the war issues.

Between the COVID related economic problems, the recent floods in China and their attempts to punish Australia by blocking sales of coal and the resulting blackouts, you are if anything slow with the economic problems prediction. It is already starting. I'll hold on the war predictions until we see how the economic issues play out.

I've been saying the ugly and long Chinese era from the Boxer rebellion to the Great Leap Forward really traumatized the Chinese people. They are understandably reluctant to enter traumatic times again. Still, that time is fading from living memory.

Autocratic cultures like China do not respond well to non violent attempts at change. They simply ignore the will of the people. There may have to be some sort of violence to overthrow the CCP. Until now, the people have been reluctant to embrace it. With the Chinese economy going south, the economic problems could trigger the violence. I'm hardly sure that will happen, but I'd like to think there is still a road from autocracy to democracy.

[Guest]

Autocratic cultures like China do not respond well to non violent attempts at change. They simply ignore the will of the people. There may have to be some sort of violence to overthrow the CCP. Until now, the people have been reluctant to embrace it. With the Chinese economy going south, the economic problems could trigger the violence. I'm hardly sure that will happen, but I'd like to think there is still a road from autocracy to democracy.

Taiwan, Japan, and Hong Kong are examples of Asian democracies. Taiwan and Hong Kong are Chinese democracies. Democracy not only works but liberal deomcracy allows people to thrive. Japan was far more autocractic than China, and yet it thrived under democracy. Of course there is a road from autocracy to democracy. There are other factors, but this is enough for now.