Financial topics

[malleni]

Good text Matt.

Especially this part:

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2 ... -have.html

Traditional money supply measures don’t capture the full picture.

I already wrote about traditionally and unconventional measures:
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... a&start=50


The article is generally correct, but it does NOT explaining the real cause behind of present problem.
Just simply to say:

"

...
If you follow the global media, rather than just the blinkered North American version, you will see how many countries are already teetering on the brink as a result of the credit crunch. Check out Iceland, or Pakistan, the Ukraine, Spain, the UK, Ireland, much of eastern Europe and many more. Many of those countries had far worse housing bubbles than the US and have much further to fall as a result.
...

... is not good enough.
AND of course - not precise too.

If we recall just one year ago - a complete World was awash with "cash". This was unprecedented inflation roll-over the World! I believe that a short explanation "just where do all these money come from...???"
You know the Answer.


"Many of those countries had (NOT) far worse housing bubbles than the US..." -...
The reason is that those countries are "connected" to strong to the USA.
AND they have NOT possibility to print "money" as USA do...
But even if that is correct - the housing bubble cannot be bigger that this in USA. That is just simply - wrong)


Anyway, as mentioned previous many time, you can try with simple example:
- We can agree that just few people on the world know what is relay happening now. EVERYWHERE on the Planet! (Not just in USA!)
If we imagine that percentage of those few clever people are the similar for each part of the Earth - than is simple to understand that clever answer is possible - especially OUTSIDE USA!
(There are more people outside USA - simple...)


Now:
If you ask anybody (I mean really anybody - from shoeblack to finance minister of Germany, China, Russia, Bulgaria, Poland, Iceland... or ANY other country!!!) - simple question:
WHO is responsible to this financial disaster?

The answer is always - the same:
The United Sates of America!!!

(Two days ago, the German finance minister openly said that Opel will NOT get ANY money - as long they are connected to GM... The reason is simple - he (and everybody) knows that this money will "escape to USA!" (With correct these words!)


I really do not understand why it is , dear Americans, so difficult to understand?

I understand that you are habituate on the cosy nice position of you country:
Printing money - and with this paper pay other nations for REAL work or commodities!
Almost NO real production... NO manufacturing jobs... Just - "managing" the wealth from other nations, making the wars and printing "the money".

Even if completely World bail out USA (as John suggest!) - WHAT will USA do with it, in this shape???

It is obviously the other nations are VERY CLEAR - WHAT and WHO is the main problem in this sick system!

If you, dear Americans, really believe that you are intelligent and the all other nations are - plainly stupid...I would suggest that you try your opinion one more time.

United States of America has the biggest, the most expensive and the most aggressive military on the entire World.
That can be also agreed always.
This is the MAIN reason for NO changes in the rotten Breton Woods system.


Even today - United States of America refuse to talk about it as soon as on the G20 meeting.
That is clear that - nothing could happen without basic changes of this system.
It is clear that USA as biggest Empire on the Planet - defend its position until the last.

How it will finished?
Everybody has a bad feelings about end... and it is obviously near.
Additionally, I am very sure that the other World nations will not just sit there and look - and permit the Empire to continue with rubbery....
(even if John and probably many Americans believe that creditor nations " will find the way" to bail out USA... It will just remind - a dream.)


It is understandable for the Empire, but for intellectual American people I believe - it is not way to discuss.
I would not be surprised - that now come John - and as usual (if he commented this at all) and noticed: "This is irrelevant nonsense...")... On the end - probably he commented a member of forum "intelligence" - and conclude that since he is American - he has the Right to:
- "predict" future events - based on - nothing...
- underestimate intelligence of forum members, as well as all nations of the World.
- overestimate his own intelligence, as well as other people who saying to him "yes... I agree..."


I am sorry, I do not think that this will help you or any other in USA.

[malleni]

Perhaps for better understanding, here is an article which showed that far from "all Americans" think like "one"... for example:

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms. ... 547&page=0

There, on the page 2, are some possible real proposal which USA could start with.
Unfortunately - it will not happened.

[Witchiepoo]

hmm ...

Does this mean that other countries like Barack Obama because they think he will make it easier for them to kick our ass?

[Matt1989]

Good text Matt.

... is not good enough.
AND of course - not precise too.

Okay well it was actually a speech and not an essay/article.

The answer is always - the same:
The United Sates of America!!!

(Two days ago, the German finance minister openly said that Opel will NOT get ANY money - as long they are connected to GM... The reason is simple - he (and everybody) knows that this money will "escape to USA!" (With correct these words!)


I really do not understand why it is , dear Americans, so difficult to understand?

Who are they going to blame? Themselves? Or the easy target?

I understand that you are habituate on the cosy nice position of you country:
Printing money - and with this paper pay other nations for REAL work or commodities!
Almost NO real production... NO manufacturing jobs... Just - "managing" the wealth from other nations, making the wars and printing "the money".

Even if completely World bail out USA (as John suggest!) - WHAT will USA do with it, in this shape???

It is obviously the other nations are VERY CLEAR - WHAT and WHO is the main problem in this sick system!

You are not grasping the root by treating a symptom as a cause. Yes, it's quite easy to blame America's (to paraphrase Kevin Carson) iron fist behind the invisible hand since America is the leading economic and military power, and nearly all finance runs through the United States at some point. However, the issue is not who is the main problem, but rather, what is the main problem? History has demonstrated that powerful agents will take advantage of any system that allows it and use this advantage for the purpose of exploitation. While this process is certainly deplorable, it is also inevitable, regardless of WHO is in the driver seat. The issue is ultimately systemic.

(even if John and probably many Americans believe that creditor nations " will find the way" to bail out USA... It will just remind - a dream.)

I'm a bit skeptical of other countries relieving America of its debt, but if a bailout were to occur, it would have nothing to do with the way the rest of the world treats America. They will act to save their own asses.

It is understandable for the Empire, but for intellectual American people I believe - it is not way to discuss.
I would not be surprised - that now come John - and as usual (if he commented this at all) and noticed: "This is irrelevant nonsense...")... On the end - probably he commented a member of forum "intelligence" - and conclude that since he is American - he has the Right to:
- "predict" future events - based on - nothing...
- underestimate intelligence of forum members, as well as all nations of the World.
- overestimate his own intelligence, as well as other people who saying to him "yes... I agree..."

Technically, anyone has the right to do any of these things, but where do you get off making all these accusations? There is a powerful and well-detailed mechanism that gives insight into the past, and provides us with the opportunity to get a better look at what is coming.

[malleni]

hmm ...

Does this mean that other countries like Barack Obama because they think he will make it easier for them to kick our ass?

No.
You "kick your ass" good enough - by yourself.
It is more than clear that nobody threat USA, but also USA is definitely NOT in position to threat anybody too.
Simply - the United State of America has NO money...

... AND those guys in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Italy, Kosovo, Japan..... and all 150 (or more) countries with American military bases.... - NEED money ... You know?

And since the United State of America has NO money (at least REAL money) - those guys can be quite nervous too...
Of course somebody can perhaps believe that this is the "Exit" from crises (as usually)... Just another war - and everything is again - fine...
BUT - again - how to pay those guys with REAL money???



Generally, I do not like the "predictions"... because those are very often too sad and on the end - they do not fulfill... Either the future is much worse, or not so bad at all...
Anyway, if John permits me to "predict" something about USA - I could do it in short:
1. the state USA is today without money and with RAPID reducing of taxpayers base - its ability to collect money through taxes will be drastically reduced.
2. I doubt that ANY nation will credit USA in this situation which means that even this source of easy money - is very soon (if not even now) - out of reach.
3. the USA as state has, in the last couple decennials, spend money not to development country ability to produce and survive alone, but only to spent and in best case to rubber other nations with overwhelming military force. Very soon, I "predict" that other creditor nations will stall the USA - a very "delicate" question:
"Where is our money?"
(despite what John believe.)
4. Now - it is time to pay... Not less for this "overwhelming military force".
5. Since there are NO money - I can imagine that those guys (not only generals) will be not very satisfied to be "layoff".
6. Since there obviously not enough REAL money there, many people will soon stay without source for survival (especially when "big three" fall) ... it is not difficult to predict that this will cause big (perhaps huge) social disorder.
7. We must not forget that American are the most armed nation of the Planet.
8. In attempt to reestablish order on the American streets - the state will use (...you guess) - the military of course... (It would not be first time)

How it will finished...?
Nobody knows.

So shortly:
The United State of America will very soon default due to the enormous debt. This will come together with enormous social problem caused due to inability to create a new amount of jobs...
The United State of America will try to suppress these uprising with force - of course.

So if you are interested for the future "predictions" I would suggest George Orwell and his famous "1984".

That is much more real that any of those "GD theory" - predictions.

[malleni]

You are not grasping the root by treating a symptom as a cause. Yes, it's quite easy to blame America's (to paraphrase Kevin Carson) iron fist behind the invisible hand since America is the leading economic and military power, and nearly all finance runs through the United States at some point. However, the issue is not who is the main problem, but rather, what is the main problem? History has demonstrated that powerful agents will take advantage of any system that allows it and use this advantage for the purpose of exploitation. While this process is certainly deplorable, it is also inevitable, regardless of WHO is in the driver seat. The issue is ultimately systemic.

...

Technically, anyone has the right to do any of these things, but where do you get off making all these accusations? There is a powerful and well-detailed mechanism that gives insight into the past, and provides us with the opportunity to get a better look at what is coming.

Matt,
I agree with almost everything you wrote, but not quite understand these two meanings.

I tried couple times to present what is my opinion and answer on the question: "what is the main problem?"
I agree definitely with you that this is systematic error.

[malleni]

Perhaps, this is "solution":

"The US will be forced to issue foreign currency-denominated US Treasures in its hour of need," said Mizuno. "The US cannot finance its deficit by itself. The US financial system cannot survive without foreign investors. We will see 'Obama Bonds' in the future."

http://atimes.com/atimes/Japan/JK19Dh01.html

[John]

Remember that I'm using as a model the attempted American bailout of
Germany in 1931. That attempted bailout failed.

There WILL be an attempted bailout of the US Government, but it will
fail. Everything will fail.

Today's economic news is scary and disastrous. I'm not going to get
much sleep tonight.

Sincerely,

John

[isaac]

I'm not going to get
much sleep tonight.

John

John,

You really need to find a better frame of mind. I know things are bad, but your a smart guy and your as ready for it as anyone. As important as seeing the problem coming is finding a way to live and be happy even when things are not as we wish they were. The good old days are no doubt behind us, but peace of mind and happiness are choices every human has a right to make.

I'll sleep fine tonight. I sleep fine everynight.

Isaac

[jwfid]

John,

I'm having trouble sleeping too. I was thinking about the same things last night. Everything will fail. Everything has to fail.

I hope it doesn't. I hope somehow that throwing money at this financial black hole will save us.

Oh, the suffering I see down the road. That's what keeps me up at night. We are destined to repeat everything that happened in the 1930's. I fear its only going to be worse, however.

John, you were right. I've been saying that for days now. You were right. I've read some more of your posts from earlier this year. I with I had the time to read them all. You were right.

Very few people I've spoke to in the last two months have any idea what's going to happen. I'm alone here; well, almost anyway. Thanks to everyone here and the one person here in my hometown that doesn't think I'm nuts. Everyone else seems to be in a state of denial.

Thanks everyone.

Joe