Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

I am always a day late anyway. Just appears lately to be that some more segment models growing up and PE tired of obtuse model players.

It seems like now people are finally starting to realize that this is not something we're going to be able to just shrug off. Millions more are going to have their lives ruined before all of this is over. The DJIA seems to be holding steady, but from the looks of it, a lot of other stocks are still in the tank.

At the moment, I'm just waiting for the coming trade war.

Trevor wrote:The DJIA seems to be holding steady, but from the looks of it, a lot of other stocks are still in the tank.

The Russell 2000 (2000 small stocks) is cruising toward a record high. You got me.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/in ... style=1013

So much to dig out given reporting on numbers, marked optimism, and the Euro zone will get togeather or be left behind in the dust in a few more utopian daydreams over the next few quarters. China is still the inland island of Asia, and will land on reform or hard landing from social impedimants from to much central choking and I "assume only" they are smarter than that. Still some intense obvious frictions zones. Hard to tell if they grind themselves to utter stupidity but well under way on that. Water, Wheat and Weather are the final cards I start with and go from there. Still watching consolidation on speciality markets underway in France and the States. I have yet to review more in depth LEI reports and PMI yet. I drained some equity's so this quarter % is not a issue. No hurry on my part for emergencys of others systemic errors which are the headline head winds. Some segments are shifting up in my narrow views. Still mindfull of rollover tho since as many know also we have not turned around yet in to many areas.

However, the timing of the market relative to sentiment extremes usually has significant lag time, but there is no favorable risk/reward to buying the current O/B market at these levels, but the US market as outperformed all other major foreign markets in US dollar terms in 2011 and if that continues it can extend the current O/B condition before any correction. Regardless of which party wins the election, the structural US debt problems, unfunded liabilities, etc will not go away, but as I said in the previous commentary, if Obama gets elected the odds heavily favor the next bear market cycle because there will be more debt, more taxes, more regulation, bigger government, more wasteful spending, and he will continue to crowd out the private sector, which is always the Socialist agenda.
Kevin Haggerty served as Senior Vice President for Equity Trading at Fidelity Capital Markets, Boston, a division of Fidelity Investments. He was responsible for all U.S. institutional Listed, OTC and Option trading in addition to all major Exchange Floor Executions.

Mindfull of O and H indications indeed also. John's headlines in my opinion convey the Arab Spring atempted Confederation of States will never have impact given
the brutal attributes to consolidate from inception to reunite our people on the foundation of a political partnership in a larger construct. How can probable
get traction with basic unions of the commons to water, food, and shelter press more every day?

http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fre ... 020612.pdf
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
http://www.ism.ws/files/ISMReport/JPMor ... 020312.pdf
http://solari.com/blog/sir-james-goldsm ... 4-warning/ Fundamental needs of the economy...

In the United States, we've got a few things of our own that can start a chain reaction and crash the economy. There are a few states that are not far from imploding in on themselves. California would be the worst of them with high unemployment and a low bond rating, in addition to one of the highest deficits. Not only that, but California has over 10 percent of the U.S. population. If they start going under, and since I live in California that's what I'm seeing, it's going to have a severe effect on the United States.

The perennially negative Nouriel Roubini – nicknamed Dr Doom for his usually critical views – is turning bullish. You read that right, Roubini is betting on additional stock market gains.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46296487

An amazing thing to note is that in two out of the last three weeks gasoline usage has dropped below 8,000,000 barrels per day.

The last time usage fell that low was the week of September 21, 2001! And you know what that week was! Prior to that you have to go back to 1996 to have a time period truly consistently below 8,000. We have done it two out of the last three weeks.

The second graph once again shows the year on year change in usage of distillates. The Obama "stimulus" package and Fed monetary actions masked the underlying systemic problems

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... oline.html

I think replacement with natural gas is beginning to have an impact - garbage trucks and school busses have switched to NG at a fantastic rate.

http://www.eia.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ ... ia914.html

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/n ... nce08.html

And search on "natural gas fleet". Too many relevant hits to list.

I suppose that could be considered an arbitrage opportunity, while natural gas prices are lower than other fuels, it's time to move and get the cash before everyone moves and the other fuels move in price to compensate. OFC, if OPEC or war keeps crude prices high, then the switchover will be faster and more comprehensive than otherwise.

Also, Obama is tone deaf on H1-B's.

http://www.salon.com/2012/02/06/obamas_ ... singleton/

According to data compiled by ComputerWorld, this manipulation of the H-1B program is now one of the biggest ways the visa is used. As the trade magazine reported just three days before President Obama’s public defense of the H-1B program, foreign “offshore outsourcing companies” — read: companies that subcontract huge swaths of domestic work to low-wage locales offshore — now “make up the majority of the top 10 H-1B visa users in 2011.” This is why in a separate story, the Times went on to report that relatively few H-1B employees from offshore outsourcing firms seek permanent green cards. Far from the H-1B being used in the way its proponents assert — as a method of attracting new, high-skilled workers to become permanent residents and thus improving America’s overall high-tech workforce — the H-1B is now being used as a means of shipping America’s entire high-tech industry offshore.

Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Syria’s bloody crackdown and Greece’s potential default are leaving markets unfazed as central bankers take unprecedented steps to prevent the global economy from crumbling.

The VIX, a measure of equity volatility known as the “fear index,” fell to 17.1 on Feb. 3, the lowest level since July, according to the Chicago Board Options Exchange.

While geo-political risks have risen, investors are taking their cue from policy makers from Washington to Frankfurt to Beijing who are driving down interest rates and flooding the world with cash to prop up their economies. The balance sheets of the world’s six biggest central banks have more than doubled since 2006 to $13.2 trillion, according to Chicago-based Bianco Research LLC.

“Investors are numb and sedated,” Jeffrey Sherman, a commodities money manager who helps oversee $25 billion for DoubleLine Capital LP in Los Angeles, said in a Feb. 7 telephone interview.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-0 ... -cash.html