Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Guest wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:18 pm

Guest wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 6:16 am

Read Navigator's book and then prepare to lay in wait.

So that whole rant was just a book advertisement?

No, not really. Navigator has one view of how bad stuff in the future comes about, John has a generational dynamics view of the future, and this was yet another view. The point in all these views is this: the future outcome is restoration of morality and civility. Navigator has excellent information in his book on how to prepare, however you might see bad stuff coming. We need to live through the bad stuff so we can be part of that restoration.

Navigator, do you agree? I'm not trying to put words in your mouth.

My view is that in the end, things get much much better. Its just that they will be almost unimaginably bad before that happens.

Taiwan preserved the ancient traditions and cultural of historic China, while the CCP set about destroying it all during the so-called cultural revolution. Their hare-brained theories ruined the economy and resulted in the deaths of millions from starvation and persecution. The CCP exists by force alone, and based on its horrific record has no legitimacy whatsoever.

One by one the communists states have fallen: Poland, East Germany, Hungary, Romania, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, Albania, the USSR. Only a handful now remain, and only one with the power to do any serious harm. Keep the pressure up, and it will be gone soon as well.

Support the real China, Taiwan.

Navigator wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 12:11 am Since there is again a lot of talk about the Chinese making a move, here is my earlier post on what I expect:

Navigator wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:23 pm
So here is my guess on roughly how it will play out with the Chinese:

Chinese grab the Taiwan owned Quemoy island (Kinmey County on Google Maps) which is just a few miles off of the coast of the mainland city of Xiamen. Possibly they also grab the Taiwan owned islands of Wuqui Township as well. These areas are almost impossible for Taiwan to defend nowadays, though they were successful in the 1950s/60s (when the CCP was MUCH weaker). Biden protests to CCP about escalating tensions by doing this, but does nothing to intervene militarily. [kind of like Austria]

Emboldened by grabbing Quemoy with minimal repurcussions, the Chinese now move to take the Pescadore island (Penghu county on Google Maps). Biden has withdrawn the US Navy from the area in a bid to de-escalate "tensions" over the Quemoy thing. Taiwan puts up a fight, but they do not have the ability to reinforce the island, and it quickly falls to the CCP forces. Biden does not have the US get involved, as some small island is not "worth fighting over". [kind of like Sudetenland/Czechoslovakia]

Once the CCP has Penghu, which has a huge airport and massive natural harbor (it was the Japanese naval staging area for their WW2 invasion of the Philippines), they build up massive forces there.

At this point, Biden warns the CCP that they are not to actually invade Taiwan proper. Problem is that with Penghu, Taiwanese defenses are seriously compromised. Negotiations to "keep the peace" are held.

Biden feels forced to act once the CCP actually land on Taiwan, which they do once they have completed their build up on Penghu. [kind of like Poland]

Note that the last thing is what John is talking about, Biden being backed into a corner by Chinese moves.

It will get serious once the Chinese actually grab the Taiwanese islands right off their coast (see above).

Fat, clueless, brain-dead Yank commenters make me laugh.

Taiwan is China, and there's *NOTHING* the USA can do about it.

In over 19 years US military hasn't been able to subdue a bunch of Afghan farmers. And that was even before they made transgender grooming standards and mandatory buttsex part of their SOP.

The USA is finished - FINISHED. China is the future.

Guest wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 12:45 am

Navigator wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 12:11 am Since there is again a lot of talk about the Chinese making a move, here is my earlier post on what I expect:

Navigator wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:23 pm
So here is my guess on roughly how it will play out with the Chinese:

Chinese grab the Taiwan owned Quemoy island (Kinmey County on Google Maps) which is just a few miles off of the coast of the mainland city of Xiamen. Possibly they also grab the Taiwan owned islands of Wuqui Township as well. These areas are almost impossible for Taiwan to defend nowadays, though they were successful in the 1950s/60s (when the CCP was MUCH weaker). Biden protests to CCP about escalating tensions by doing this, but does nothing to intervene militarily. [kind of like Austria]

Emboldened by grabbing Quemoy with minimal repurcussions, the Chinese now move to take the Pescadore island (Penghu county on Google Maps). Biden has withdrawn the US Navy from the area in a bid to de-escalate "tensions" over the Quemoy thing. Taiwan puts up a fight, but they do not have the ability to reinforce the island, and it quickly falls to the CCP forces. Biden does not have the US get involved, as some small island is not "worth fighting over". [kind of like Sudetenland/Czechoslovakia]

Once the CCP has Penghu, which has a huge airport and massive natural harbor (it was the Japanese naval staging area for their WW2 invasion of the Philippines), they build up massive forces there.

At this point, Biden warns the CCP that they are not to actually invade Taiwan proper. Problem is that with Penghu, Taiwanese defenses are seriously compromised. Negotiations to "keep the peace" are held.

Biden feels forced to act once the CCP actually land on Taiwan, which they do once they have completed their build up on Penghu. [kind of like Poland]

Note that the last thing is what John is talking about, Biden being backed into a corner by Chinese moves.

It will get serious once the Chinese actually grab the Taiwanese islands right off their coast (see above).

Fat, clueless, brain-dead Yank commenters make me laugh.

Taiwan is China, and there's *NOTHING* the USA can do about it.

In over 19 years US military hasn't been able to subdue a bunch of Afghan farmers. And that was even before they made transgender grooming standards and mandatory buttsex part of their SOP.

The USA is finished - FINISHED. China is the future.

It would seem that the CCP is rattling their sabers, in the light of the immediate destruction of the 3 Gorges Dam the instant Taiwan is attacked.

See you in Hell.

Navigator wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 12:22 am Almost entirely the left. Once America gets attacked, those on the right will predominantly rally to the flag, no matter who is president, for the duration.

Those on the extreme left are spouting mostly Marxist ideology and will want the CCP to win.

There are people on the extreme right who will want the CCP to win as well. These people will be predominantly from one of two groups:

1) Anarcho-libertarians who believe the federal government has become tyrannical and therefore lost all legitimacy. They will root for the CCP out of hope that an American defeat will result in the federal government collapsing.

2) Radical traditionalists who believe the US is the greater evil because it promotes liberal/progressive values in its foreign policy, sometimes aggressively so. They will root for the CCP because again, they believe the US is the greater evil.

Time for another map. This one is rather important.

This is a good indication of which countries China plans to take territory from. Every country colored in red has territory that once belonged to China. The dark red countries were once completely controlled by China.

DaKardii wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:38 am Time for another map. This one is rather important.

This is a good indication of which countries China plans to take territory from. Every country colored in red has territory that once belonged to China. The dark red countries were once completely controlled by China.

Source map, from a 1941 Chinese textbook:

Navigator wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 12:06 am On the financial front, I have been doing some research on finding good explanations as to why Deflation will be the result of the next financial crisis.

....

Here is a link to a couple of people talking about the why's of Deflation. It is still more complex than I would like, but it will give you a lot of insight into what is going on, and why Deflation will be the result.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_HCIyc6MaA

The video is also very good at explaining QE, Low Interest Rates, and their effects.

Ugh, if you can't explain, and have to point to a 1 hr video, and can't even paraphrase the core premise, you don't understand the issue.

You believe we're headed for deflation because John believes it, nothing more. You don't have any original thought on the matter, just parroting others as usual.

Anyway, we're not headed for deflation mainly because the population of the US is increasing, which drives every aspect of the economy. John recommends holding cash which would be the right move and what an expert (real one that is) would recommend in the case of deflation. Cash for deflation, gold for inflation, stocks in prosperity, bonds for recession, basic stuff from AIER. However I disagree that we're heading there.

If you want an example of a country that is undergoing real inflation look at Japan. That's because the population is shrinking and the demand for everything is shrinking overall as well. Don't point to sectors, look at the overall picture. Housing is in freefall and in many cases the value of the building is zero, the only value being in the land. Tokyo is a different story but again that's a local phenomenon.

The culture also promotes deflation as most people there save like maniacs and expect prices to fall. They also operate heavily on cash which may have psychological effects; it's harder to part with crisp bills than plop down your credit card that dispenses invisible magic money.

Abe tried to stop deflation with an easy money policy and it has worked to some degree.

I think John's position is that despite massive liquidity, the velocity of money is not keeping up, so hyperinflation will never happen. But money may be tied up in assets instead, not sitting in a safe collecting dust. If that's true, asset holders who refuse to sell drive up prices, again that is not deflationary. Asset prices fall in deflation. I think that easy money is being used to buy stonks and property.

If the idea of holding Benjamins in the face of a money-printer-goes-brrr, instinctively sounds crazy, you don't believe we're in deflation.

If you want an example of a country that is undergoing real [inflation} look at Japan.

Correction "deflation".

** 29-Jan-2021 World View: The Inflation Religion

Burner Prime wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:30 am > You believe we're headed for deflation because John believes it,
> nothing more. You don't have any original thought on the matter,
> just parroting others as usual.

It always amazes me how there seems to be some sort of Inflation
Religion of people who believe that inflation or hyperinflation is
just around the corner. Ever since 2003, when I first started posting
that we were in a deflationary era, the so-called "experts" have been
predicting "inflation next quarter" every quarter. They've now been
wrong for 70 quarters in a row. You'd think they'd learn, but no,
there are still plenty of predictions of "inflation next quarter"
going around. However I did hear Powell say the other day that
"inflation was a long way off," or something like that, so I guess we
can feel some kind of relief that at least the Fed members are not
devotees of the Inflation Religion, since they're capable of at least
understanding the simple truth that if there has been no inflation for
70 quarters, then there probably won't be inflation next quarter.

I remember back in the late 2000s decade, there was a guy running some
sort of service that purported to be tracking the "real" rate of
inflation which, as I recall, was supposed to be around 17-18% at that
time and which was supposed to be growing every quarter. This guy
posted a graph every month that showed this increasing rate of
purported inflation and how it was going up. People would criticize
me for being naïve and not knowing what I was talking about, and to
prove it, they would point to this guy's "expert" graphs and his
long-winded explanations. Some of those posts are probably still
available on this forum, though it would take a while to search for
them. This guy was charging his clients a lot of money for his
"expert" advice, telling people how to navigate in the inflationary /
hyperinflationary world that was just around the corner. I don't know
how long he kept doing this, but I assume that at some point he took
his money and disappeared, and went onto charging different clients
for giving "expert advice" on something else.

Anyway, people who think inflation is just around the corner really
don't have a clue how inflation works, which is clear from the fact
that they've been wrong for at least 70 quarters, and keep making the
same mistake. (Cue the joke about the definition of insanity.)
Inflation is literally impossible right now, and for the foreseeable
future. We are in a deflationary era, and deflation is going to get
much worse. I've written about this many times, and if I have the
time and feel in the mood, maybe I'll write another article giving all
the reasons. But what's the point? Inflation is a religion, and
people who believe in it are not going to be convinced by reason,
especially if they've learned nothing from 70 quarters of being wrong.