I can imagine a way that things might be saved. Imagine we start getting high inflation in the next few months. Further Imagine that a big "Ron Paul was right" meme starts floating around. If he was then able to win the election and become president I could imagine things being saved. But this is really a long shot. Odds very near 0%.Higgenbotham wrote: Only one difference I can see between what Singer is saying and what I've concluded. That is, that it is too late to save Western Civilization. I don't see any way that any leadership, no matter how good, can undo the damage that has been done in the past few months. Or what person of any intelligence would want to try to engage in such futility. Or even if such a person emerged that the electorate would have the intelligence to vote for that person - they don't.
Financial topics
Re: Financial topics
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Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7990
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
OLD, you have accurately framed the Apple situation. Managing short term results versus building long term value. I need to give Jobs more credit.
Vince, that would seem to be the required scenario. I don't believe the US will survive 4 years of Obama or Romney. Though I believe it is too soon to see the kind of inflation that would be severe enough to provoke the kind of reaction to get Ron Paul in. We still have one level of protection left against inflation and that is the movement of funds into dollars from bonds or, in other words, the time dependency I talked about last year. Granted, with the Fed putting a lot of long term bonds on the balance sheet, dollars and bonds are more and more one and the same, so the time dependency probably won't last a long time. On Wednesday as bond prices tanked, stocks prices were down, gold was down, the dollar was up. We may see this as the final type of deflation to be experienced over the next year or two. I don't know, but it could be quite severe, like the 50% deflation in Weimar. From there, if nothing changes, the strong inflation can come in say 2013 or 2014. So the timing is really bad for the US. The citizens got the government and the Federal Reserve Chairman that they deserved.
Vince, that would seem to be the required scenario. I don't believe the US will survive 4 years of Obama or Romney. Though I believe it is too soon to see the kind of inflation that would be severe enough to provoke the kind of reaction to get Ron Paul in. We still have one level of protection left against inflation and that is the movement of funds into dollars from bonds or, in other words, the time dependency I talked about last year. Granted, with the Fed putting a lot of long term bonds on the balance sheet, dollars and bonds are more and more one and the same, so the time dependency probably won't last a long time. On Wednesday as bond prices tanked, stocks prices were down, gold was down, the dollar was up. We may see this as the final type of deflation to be experienced over the next year or two. I don't know, but it could be quite severe, like the 50% deflation in Weimar. From there, if nothing changes, the strong inflation can come in say 2013 or 2014. So the timing is really bad for the US. The citizens got the government and the Federal Reserve Chairman that they deserved.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
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Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics
Read more: http://trib.com/news/state-and-regional ... z1pUotnPVyCHEYENNE — State representatives on Friday advanced legislation to launch a study into what Wyoming should do in the event of a complete economic or political collapse in the United States.
House Bill 85 passed on first reading by a voice vote. It would create a state-run government continuity task force, which would study and prepare Wyoming for potential catastrophes, from disruptions in food and energy supplies to a complete meltdown of the federal government.
The task force would look at the feasibility of Wyoming issuing its own alternative currency, if needed.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
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Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7990
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
Mentioned this weekend, on May 19, 2008, at the high point before the crash:
Today:
Then it was further noted that the CEO of Sandisk made some comments about high oil prices that triggered the reversal from the high.The equity markets were buoyed early by comments from officials in the euro zone's two largest economies -- Germany and France -- that were optimistic.
France is on track to meet a target of between 1.7 percent and 2 percent economic expansion in 2008, said Economy Minister Christine Lagarde. Germany surprised analysts and grew 1.5 percent from January to March, its strongest quarterly expansion since 1996.
Today:
The IMF said Greece remains "accident prone" and may require further debt restructuring or additional financing from Euro-Zone countries if it struggles to implement measures attached to its most recent 130 billion-euro bailout. IMF Managing Director Lagarde also warned that high oil prices, debt levels, and the risk of slowing growth in emerging markets threaten global economic stability. The euro and stocks also weakened after the CEO of PIMCO, Mohamed El-Erian, said Portugal will probably become a second Greece as its current rescue package will prove insufficient and the country will ask the Euro-Zone for more money.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Re: Financial topics
2 percent economic growth? Generally speaking, growth below three percent is considered stagnation. Of course, it's a sign of the times that even anemic growth would be considered good news.
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Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics
They probably thought those GDP numbers were great because at that time in 2008 the latest GDP release in the US was running at 0.6%. And the US stock market was right about where it is now.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nationa ... dp108a.htm
I went back and looked at all the economic releases from early 2008 and it's quite interesting. The weekly unemployment claims were a little higher than they have been lately. People might take that to be good news but then again there aren't as many people to lay off because workforce participation has come down a lot.
And today we see that Tim Cook at Apple has continued to "manage" their stock price. They will now pay a 1.8% dividend. Cook was born in 1960 so now we can all argue about whether he is a Boomer or an Xer. I can say this, though. Having known several managers born in 1959 or 1960, it would be just like them to come up with a plan to "manage" the stock price higher.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nationa ... dp108a.htm
I went back and looked at all the economic releases from early 2008 and it's quite interesting. The weekly unemployment claims were a little higher than they have been lately. People might take that to be good news but then again there aren't as many people to lay off because workforce participation has come down a lot.
And today we see that Tim Cook at Apple has continued to "manage" their stock price. They will now pay a 1.8% dividend. Cook was born in 1960 so now we can all argue about whether he is a Boomer or an Xer. I can say this, though. Having known several managers born in 1959 or 1960, it would be just like them to come up with a plan to "manage" the stock price higher.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Re: Financial topics
Cook is certainly concerned with the stock price. Apples' actual worth is starting to decline IMHO, the new tablet has a great visual display, but that's about it for changes. There isn't anything this IPAD can do that the first IPAD can not in terms of running programs or actual work, it just looks nicer. There isn't much left without a paradigm shift, and those are hard to come by if the CEO is worrying about stock prices to the exclusion of all else.
I've not been an optimist about the economy since the middle 70's, it was obvious to me that the market was underpriced a few times (as in 78) but that's the market, not the economy. The economy was feeding on itself since the early 80's, like a huge boulder rolling down hill, it took work to push it up, and it kept rolling after you got over the top, but now it will take work again to push it up the next hill. However, I believe the US can do this, if we don't tear ourselves apart with stupid and meaningless political purity catfights. I could mock the nonsense that is spewing easily and half of you would think I was serious, and the other half would be offended. Our major problem is simply this, nobody wants to attack the root cause of any problem, because they fear angering the people making money from those root causes.
Let us be blunt:
1. EVERYONE involved in the medical industry in the USA makes too much money from it, and that is the root cause of our insane medical costs. We've got a situation where we've essentially added a "extra profit beyond the sustainable" at every single stage of the process, and we can't afford to keep this up any longer. Calculate it for yourself, if EACH part of a seven stage process adds an extra 10% profit on top of expected profit and costs, and each stage regards the other's total as their initial bottom line costs, how much does the final retail cost go up? THAT'S our problem.
2. Infrastructure in the US is going to hell. It has to be fixed. I'm not just talking about roads and schools and etc., I'm also talking about power plants and rail and rivers and dams and levees and airports. We've got a lot of work to do in these areas.
3. Underhanded attempts to rewrite the Constitution have to be stopped, from both sides, and there's a helluva lot more coming in from people who want to move to pre Civil War law right now than there is from people who want a "socialist" USA. (We've had my lecture on what socialism is, I use the word here in the public\political\incorrect sense, not the exact sense.) Frankly, a pox on both their houses. If you want a Constitutional Convention, call one.
4. The crazy money influence on our politics has to be brought under control somehow. If that takes amending the Constitution, so be it. We can no longer exist as a country for sale to the highest bidder, and "state's rights" is absolutely NOT a solution to this problem, the state governments I'm acquainted with are far more bought and sold and for far less money than the Federal govt.
5. We need a budget more in balance, and we cannot (old post) balance it solely with cuts or with tax increases. That is simply impossible, unless you abrogate a good many responsibilities a country this size requires. Doing so would turn us into a series of balkanized states in very short order.
None of these can be fixed without fixing the politics first. And what comes out of that is going to be very unpredictible. I cannot see the personal philosophy of a Santorum or a Romney as any improvement over an Obama, and Paul is simply unrealistic about all five of the items above. Market forces were certainly at work during the fall of Rome and the Middle Ages, I don't see how we improve ourselves by hoping for an outcome better than "the biggest bastard gets all the gold and the women". That's how "market forces" have worked in the absence of government throughout the ages, and how I expect they would work again.
Very likely, all the above will be fixed, after WWIII destroys several US cities. And that's not something to look forward to.
If you want a prediction of the future, here it is: NOTHING will be done about the pending "doomsday deal" that expires tax cuts and slashes budgets until December. This will be a lame duck session of Congress, and nothing will be done THEN, unless one party or the other has a veto proof majority coming up after the elections. It is far to early to tell which party that might be, and I find it unlikely that either will do so. The Democratic Party has a better chance than the Republican Party at such a feat, however I doubt it will happen - given information available at this time. It would be very easy for either side to set off a crazy firestorm of disgust that would sweep the other into a huge win. Republicans have already picked a couple of those rotten fruits, Democrats haven't but that's only because they aren't running much of anything right now. The electorate is angry and upset, discontent is the order of the day. It is very possible, indeed probable that the lame duck session will NOT reach an agreement and the resulting cuts will start us on the second leg down of this economic collapse.
(Finally, an irritated aside about "socialized" medicine. Socialism, as I've pointed out before, is a concept wherein workers own the means of production and votes, etc., are tied to the workplace. IOW, an autoworker would be voting for the local Autoworker Representative to the Congress. Of course, in such a system, medical care and benefits would be handled THROUGH THE WORKPLACE! In the strict sense, we have the most socialistic medical system you could possibly devise. Listening to the arguements about socialized medicine just irritate me throughly. I'm not arguing the merits of any system, I'm saying that words have meanings, and the more we allow political speech to blur those meanings, the easier it is for politicians to lie to us about what they intend.
I'm a bit irritable this morning, bombs going off close enough to rattle the roof will do that to me.)
I've not been an optimist about the economy since the middle 70's, it was obvious to me that the market was underpriced a few times (as in 78) but that's the market, not the economy. The economy was feeding on itself since the early 80's, like a huge boulder rolling down hill, it took work to push it up, and it kept rolling after you got over the top, but now it will take work again to push it up the next hill. However, I believe the US can do this, if we don't tear ourselves apart with stupid and meaningless political purity catfights. I could mock the nonsense that is spewing easily and half of you would think I was serious, and the other half would be offended. Our major problem is simply this, nobody wants to attack the root cause of any problem, because they fear angering the people making money from those root causes.
Let us be blunt:
1. EVERYONE involved in the medical industry in the USA makes too much money from it, and that is the root cause of our insane medical costs. We've got a situation where we've essentially added a "extra profit beyond the sustainable" at every single stage of the process, and we can't afford to keep this up any longer. Calculate it for yourself, if EACH part of a seven stage process adds an extra 10% profit on top of expected profit and costs, and each stage regards the other's total as their initial bottom line costs, how much does the final retail cost go up? THAT'S our problem.
2. Infrastructure in the US is going to hell. It has to be fixed. I'm not just talking about roads and schools and etc., I'm also talking about power plants and rail and rivers and dams and levees and airports. We've got a lot of work to do in these areas.
3. Underhanded attempts to rewrite the Constitution have to be stopped, from both sides, and there's a helluva lot more coming in from people who want to move to pre Civil War law right now than there is from people who want a "socialist" USA. (We've had my lecture on what socialism is, I use the word here in the public\political\incorrect sense, not the exact sense.) Frankly, a pox on both their houses. If you want a Constitutional Convention, call one.
4. The crazy money influence on our politics has to be brought under control somehow. If that takes amending the Constitution, so be it. We can no longer exist as a country for sale to the highest bidder, and "state's rights" is absolutely NOT a solution to this problem, the state governments I'm acquainted with are far more bought and sold and for far less money than the Federal govt.
5. We need a budget more in balance, and we cannot (old post) balance it solely with cuts or with tax increases. That is simply impossible, unless you abrogate a good many responsibilities a country this size requires. Doing so would turn us into a series of balkanized states in very short order.
None of these can be fixed without fixing the politics first. And what comes out of that is going to be very unpredictible. I cannot see the personal philosophy of a Santorum or a Romney as any improvement over an Obama, and Paul is simply unrealistic about all five of the items above. Market forces were certainly at work during the fall of Rome and the Middle Ages, I don't see how we improve ourselves by hoping for an outcome better than "the biggest bastard gets all the gold and the women". That's how "market forces" have worked in the absence of government throughout the ages, and how I expect they would work again.
Very likely, all the above will be fixed, after WWIII destroys several US cities. And that's not something to look forward to.
If you want a prediction of the future, here it is: NOTHING will be done about the pending "doomsday deal" that expires tax cuts and slashes budgets until December. This will be a lame duck session of Congress, and nothing will be done THEN, unless one party or the other has a veto proof majority coming up after the elections. It is far to early to tell which party that might be, and I find it unlikely that either will do so. The Democratic Party has a better chance than the Republican Party at such a feat, however I doubt it will happen - given information available at this time. It would be very easy for either side to set off a crazy firestorm of disgust that would sweep the other into a huge win. Republicans have already picked a couple of those rotten fruits, Democrats haven't but that's only because they aren't running much of anything right now. The electorate is angry and upset, discontent is the order of the day. It is very possible, indeed probable that the lame duck session will NOT reach an agreement and the resulting cuts will start us on the second leg down of this economic collapse.
(Finally, an irritated aside about "socialized" medicine. Socialism, as I've pointed out before, is a concept wherein workers own the means of production and votes, etc., are tied to the workplace. IOW, an autoworker would be voting for the local Autoworker Representative to the Congress. Of course, in such a system, medical care and benefits would be handled THROUGH THE WORKPLACE! In the strict sense, we have the most socialistic medical system you could possibly devise. Listening to the arguements about socialized medicine just irritate me throughly. I'm not arguing the merits of any system, I'm saying that words have meanings, and the more we allow political speech to blur those meanings, the easier it is for politicians to lie to us about what they intend.
I'm a bit irritable this morning, bombs going off close enough to rattle the roof will do that to me.)
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weak stream
- Posts: 21
- Joined: Sat Jan 08, 2011 12:53 pm
Re: Financial topics
John, I read your blog every day for the past couple of years. I get a mix of information here that is hard to find anywhere else. Generational theory will keep us ahead of the bs that's raining down on us. It's a shame that most people reject it. But I do know why. As a Gen Xer, I can tell you that your analysis of GenX couldn't be better. We are the least ethical generational archetype. What many don't understand about ethics is that it is what causes progress in this world. Lying, cheating and stealing is the essence of barbarism. Barbarism propels us all backward. Von Mises explains this dynamic in exquisite detail. Reading the news and talking to people, you see that almost nobody will acknowledge this. Lying, cheating and stealing is seen as the essence of progress. So, yes, we will have to go all the way to the bottom here just like we did back in the '40's before we see the forest through the trees.
Re: Financial topics
Thanks for your posting. I've been doing this now for almost ten
years, and I keep hoping that I'll read or see something that will
prove me wrong or paranoid or insane. But I keep seeing the steady
stream of lies from politicians and Wall Street types, and I keep
having conversations with Gen-Xers where what they say crazy and
bizarre things. So maybe I am paranoid or insane, but I'm definitely
not wrong.
John
years, and I keep hoping that I'll read or see something that will
prove me wrong or paranoid or insane. But I keep seeing the steady
stream of lies from politicians and Wall Street types, and I keep
having conversations with Gen-Xers where what they say crazy and
bizarre things. So maybe I am paranoid or insane, but I'm definitely
not wrong.
John
Re: Financial topics
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