Yes that is one way China works, the salami slice strategy as they're doing with the South China Sea against smaller weak countries. And I thought they might just be patient and let us implode. But then I realized we have several single points of failure that China would not let go to waste: single carrier build location at Newport News, single aluminum plant, non-existent computer motherboard manufacturing. Plus a time-sensitive aspect: they already stated, "We don't want a Cold War with the US", and I believe that's true, because they saw the lessons of the Soviet Union and might lose that one and implode themselves.Xeraphim1 wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:13 amAnd of course the Chinese leadership is living in some kind of dream world and doesn't understand the consequences of using nuclear weapons on US forces. Remember, the most important thing for the Chinese leadership is ensuring that they remain the leadership. Nuclear weapons flying around tends to make that much less likely.Burner Prime wrote: Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:50 pm China is not going to attack Taiwan any time soon, though eventually they'll do it as a surprise 3-prong strike. Before that, they gonna build up their nuclear-capable subs, which will be the linchpin. If they attacc before, we'd take out the ones currently under construction, the new big boys capable of 24 nukes each. So they gonna wait until those are operational. One thing they ain't gonna do is repeat Japan's mistakes.
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China has a pattern of making small incremental gains rather than going for a knock out blow.
They can't salami-slice Taiwan's main island. Maybe they can take some of the smaller ones, but patterns like that won't be tolerated and they would probably face some kind of UN condemnation. Any long game gives the US time to correct and other countries to react and prepare and uncertainty grows over any long time horizon for any enterprise. How long can they wait to let Taiwan build millions of MBs for the world's military? For the US and France to build more attack subs?
I am convinced all our efforts to protect Taiwan are due to the fact we rely on them totally for that crucial technology, computer motherboards and other printed circuitry, including for military. Without that we are in big trouble. Of course China knows that too. John is right about that, we will protect Taiwan at all costs, but we will fail if China throws nukes everywhere. China has the same mentality, they will take Taiwan at all costs, as it's their key to hobbling the US and destroying Japan, besides reclaiming their honor.
John makes the best point that some unforeseen and unexpected incident may trigger a chain reaction of things as the situation becomes panicked and leaders irrational.
Still their new nuclear subs (48 nukes) have one purpose, to launch a surprise attack against the US.
About Japan's mistakes, those are first Pearl Harbor and letting things become a long-game against US manufacturing might. Then was Midway, where they squandered precious assets needed for naval dominance. They learned from those mistakes (esp operational ones) but it was too late once those assets were gone and they lost initiative. China won't make those mistakes and we won't have that incredible technological (radar), intelligence (broke their code) and manufacturing (we suck now) advantages. Guam is toast, they won't spare anything to obliterate that powerful radar station.
China will tolerate the long-game slugfest once they complete their first strike. By then the US will be in trouble with no MB manufacturing and possible destroyed carrier fleet, shipyards, and aluminum smelting. China will probably still have most or all those things.