Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Burner Prime

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Burner Prime »

Xeraphim1 wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:13 am
Burner Prime wrote: Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:50 pm China is not going to attack Taiwan any time soon, though eventually they'll do it as a surprise 3-prong strike. Before that, they gonna build up their nuclear-capable subs, which will be the linchpin. If they attacc before, we'd take out the ones currently under construction, the new big boys capable of 24 nukes each. So they gonna wait until those are operational. One thing they ain't gonna do is repeat Japan's mistakes.

<big snip>
And of course the Chinese leadership is living in some kind of dream world and doesn't understand the consequences of using nuclear weapons on US forces. Remember, the most important thing for the Chinese leadership is ensuring that they remain the leadership. Nuclear weapons flying around tends to make that much less likely.

China has a pattern of making small incremental gains rather than going for a knock out blow.
Yes that is one way China works, the salami slice strategy as they're doing with the South China Sea against smaller weak countries. And I thought they might just be patient and let us implode. But then I realized we have several single points of failure that China would not let go to waste: single carrier build location at Newport News, single aluminum plant, non-existent computer motherboard manufacturing. Plus a time-sensitive aspect: they already stated, "We don't want a Cold War with the US", and I believe that's true, because they saw the lessons of the Soviet Union and might lose that one and implode themselves.

They can't salami-slice Taiwan's main island. Maybe they can take some of the smaller ones, but patterns like that won't be tolerated and they would probably face some kind of UN condemnation. Any long game gives the US time to correct and other countries to react and prepare and uncertainty grows over any long time horizon for any enterprise. How long can they wait to let Taiwan build millions of MBs for the world's military? For the US and France to build more attack subs?

I am convinced all our efforts to protect Taiwan are due to the fact we rely on them totally for that crucial technology, computer motherboards and other printed circuitry, including for military. Without that we are in big trouble. Of course China knows that too. John is right about that, we will protect Taiwan at all costs, but we will fail if China throws nukes everywhere. China has the same mentality, they will take Taiwan at all costs, as it's their key to hobbling the US and destroying Japan, besides reclaiming their honor.

John makes the best point that some unforeseen and unexpected incident may trigger a chain reaction of things as the situation becomes panicked and leaders irrational.

Still their new nuclear subs (48 nukes) have one purpose, to launch a surprise attack against the US.

About Japan's mistakes, those are first Pearl Harbor and letting things become a long-game against US manufacturing might. Then was Midway, where they squandered precious assets needed for naval dominance. They learned from those mistakes (esp operational ones) but it was too late once those assets were gone and they lost initiative. China won't make those mistakes and we won't have that incredible technological (radar), intelligence (broke their code) and manufacturing (we suck now) advantages. Guam is toast, they won't spare anything to obliterate that powerful radar station.

China will tolerate the long-game slugfest once they complete their first strike. By then the US will be in trouble with no MB manufacturing and possible destroyed carrier fleet, shipyards, and aluminum smelting. China will probably still have most or all those things.
DaKardii
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Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Guest wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:15 am No, the KSA does not. The Chechens do look to the House of Saud for anything. The Chechens were fighting the Russians bfore Saudi Arabia even existed and they did it without foreign help. (Not even the from the Ottoman Empire.) You don't know whaqt you are talking about. You are posting Moscow's or some other anti-Muslim groups talking points. You have no clue as to what really happens in the Muslim world. You study propagaqnda as if it were fact. That is why your analysis is absolutely wrong.
Guest wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:15 am It's Russia who faked the Moscow apartment bombings in 1999 and blamed the Chechens. Ask Moscovites what they think. They will tell you. Well, maybe not you. You obvious hatred of Muslims and Arabs is far too apparent. Also, that you believe Putin and the Kremlin is a sign of stupidity to the average Russian.

I had hoped that twenty years of losing wars and bankrupting yourselves would have led more Americans to a better understanding of their folly. Some Americans do understand; you don't.
Yes, the Chechens did hate the Russians before Saudi Arabia existed. Yes, the Russian apartment bombings may have been a false flag. That doesn't change the fact that many of the Chechen militias were tied to the Saudi regime.

It may be difficult for the average American to comprehend the true extent of Saudi Arabia's sponsoring of terrorism, because (1) the politicians and the media keep denying it; and (2) Saudi Arabia often sponsors terrorism through third parties (unlike Iran, who sponsors terrorism directly). But more and more people are waking up.
DaKardii
Posts: 955
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Leaked audio features WHO officials complaining about China not giving them enough information concerning COVID-19:
https://www.wionews.com/videos/gravitas ... ses-359761
Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Burner Prime wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 1:02 pm

Yes that is one way China works, the salami slice strategy as they're doing with the South China Sea against smaller weak countries. And I thought they might just be patient and let us implode. But then I realized we have several single points of failure that China would not let go to waste: single carrier build location at Newport News, single aluminum plant, non-existent computer motherboard manufacturing. Plus a time-sensitive aspect: they already stated, "We don't want a Cold War with the US", and I believe that's true, because they saw the lessons of the Soviet Union and might lose that one and implode themselves.
The USSR was losing the Cold War because it couldn't compete with the US economically and was falling behind in the tech war. China does not have that problem because it saw what happened to the USSR and undertook economic reforms to prevent that problem. John has touched on this issue many times.
They can't salami-slice Taiwan's main island. Maybe they can take some of the smaller ones, but patterns like that won't be tolerated and they would probably face some kind of UN condemnation. Any long game gives the US time to correct and other countries to react and prepare and uncertainty grows over any long time horizon for any enterprise. How long can they wait to let Taiwan build millions of MBs for the world's military? For the US and France to build more attack subs?
The US is already greatly stronger militarily than China. It's China that needs a lot more time to catch up because right now it would lose any non-nuclear war. Even in a nuclear war it would be affected worse and China's leaders would either die or be left ruling a radioactive wasteland.
I am convinced all our efforts to protect Taiwan are due to the fact we rely on them totally for that crucial technology, computer motherboards and other printed circuitry, including for military. Without that we are in big trouble. Of course China knows that too. John is right about that, we will protect Taiwan at all costs, but we will fail if China throws nukes everywhere. China has the same mentality, they will take Taiwan at all costs, as it's their key to hobbling the US and destroying Japan, besides reclaiming their honor.
The US has had a law obligating it to sell Taiwan defensive weapons for some 40 years now, long before Taiwan had any economic importance. Right now it's TSMC that the issue because it has the best nodes in its fabs. A lot of the other production, such as motherboards, takes place in other countries, particularly China, because the margins are low. However, both Intel and Global Foundries still have fabs in the US; they're just producing using older processes. With a few exceptions US military needs could be sourced from US based fabs. Once TSMC's Arizona fab is running that wouldn't be a concern. China on the other hand is greatly dependent on imports for critical technology. Computer CPUs (not ARM processers) are all imported.
John makes the best point that some unforeseen and unexpected incident may trigger a chain reaction of things as the situation becomes panicked and leaders irrational.
This is certainly true, but we have to look at probabilities. In the past 75 years the US has not used nuclear weapons for a reason. That same reason applies to China and crossing the line is something taken extremely seriously.
Still their new nuclear subs (48 nukes) have one purpose, to launch a surprise attack against the US.
The PLAN has a total of 66 submarines: 16 nuclear including 7 SSBN. The rest are diesel electric. Like all other SSBN's, their purpose is more second strike than first because they're harder to locate. Any first strike would be with land based missiles because those are use them or lose them assets. I would be more worried about a large increase in land based ICBMs.
About Japan's mistakes, those are first Pearl Harbor and letting things become a long-game against US manufacturing might. Then was Midway, where they squandered precious assets needed for naval dominance. They learned from those mistakes (esp operational ones) but it was too late once those assets were gone and they lost initiative. China won't make those mistakes and we won't have that incredible technological (radar), intelligence (broke their code) and manufacturing (we suck now) advantages. Guam is toast, they won't spare anything to obliterate that powerful radar station.
Japan lost the war against the US long before it started. You're drawing the wrong lessons.

A nuclear attack on Guam, something that inconvenience the US, would lead to a nuclear strike on at least one Chinese base that would be more critical to China's purposes and kill millions more people. The CCP knows this.

BTW, the US has been expanding its bases in the area. Wake is getting an upgrade, North Field in Guam likely will be refurbished and other nations in the area are looking at allowing US basing in exchange for financial/industrial support. Palau is lobbying heavily.
China will tolerate the long-game slugfest once they complete their first strike. By then the US will be in trouble with no MB manufacturing and possible destroyed carrier fleet, shipyards, and aluminum smelting. China will probably still have most or all those things.
China would tolerate a slugfest only if there was no other option. The deaths would be horrific, the economic damage to China would be immense and there is the strong likelihood that the Chinese leadership would be incinerated.

You seem to keep forgetting that the leadership likes their cushy jobs and wants to stay in them. Multiple RVs pounding their country makes that very difficult.

Could there be a nuclear war with China? Sure, it can't be ruled out. But it would be the result of lots of bad decisions and desperation.
DaKardii
Posts: 955
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Yesterday, CNN's Fareed Zakaria did an interview with Cui Tiankai, the Chinese ambassador to the US.

During the interview Cui blamed the US for growing tensions between China and its neighbors, stating that anytime the US gets involved with anything anywhere around the world it only makes things worse.

Cui also defended the CCP's Xinjiang policy, stating that it was necessary to prevent terrorism and lift the Uighurs out of poverty. He even went as far as saying that the workers at the camps are not forced laborers; they are working there willingly because they need a job. He then attacked Western media (particularly the BBC) as lacking credibility due to its coverage of the camps.

Cui then went on to defend the CCP's Hong Kong policy, blaming the current situation on foreign interference and saying that China's territorial integrity is at stake.

Finally, Cui denied that COVID-19 originated in China, stating that there is evidence that the virus actually originated outside of China and accusing proponents of the "Wuhan Lab" theory of being fake scientists.

https://newsus.cgtn.com/news/2021-02-08 ... index.html
DaKardii
Posts: 955
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

DaKardii wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 2:20 pm Finally, Cui denied that COVID-19 originated in China, stating that there is evidence that the virus actually originated outside of China and accusing proponents of the "Wuhan Lab" theory of being fake scientists.

https://newsus.cgtn.com/news/2021-02-08 ... index.html
The CCP has previously claimed that COVID-19 may have originated in the US, and on at least one occasion gone as far as accusing the US of intentionally releasing it as a bioweapon. The CCP has even called for the WHO to investigate the possibility of COVID-19 being an "American virus."

Personally, I wouldn't entirely doubt those claims. Like the CCP, our own government has its share of pathological lying sociopaths. If our government did do it, then my guess is that the motive was to create a casus belli for war with China. "Xi has weapons of mass destruction, after all."

Of course I'm not going to use that as an excuse to side with the CCP in the upcoming war, unlike certain people on both the anti-establishment left and the anti-establishment right. I love my country and its people too much to do something like that.
DaKardii
Posts: 955
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Congressman Ron Wright (R-TX) has died at 67 after contracting COVID-19. Wright is the first sitting member of Congress to die from the virus, although back in December a Congressman-elect (Luke Letlow (R-LA)) died at 41 after also contracting it.

https://www.npr.org/2021/02/08/96537087 ... -diagnosis
DaKardii
Posts: 955
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

DaKardii wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 2:44 pm Congressman Ron Wright (R-TX) has died at 67 after contracting COVID-19. Wright is the first sitting member of Congress to die from the virus, although back in December a Congressman-elect (Luke Letlow (R-LA)) died at 41 after also contracting it.

https://www.npr.org/2021/02/08/96537087 ... -diagnosis
Keep in mind that Wright was already battling lung cancer prior to contracting the virus; Letlow's actual cause of death was a heart attack suffered while on the operating table during a COVID-related procedure. It's thus possible (but debatable) that the virus exacerbated pre-existing conditions in both cases. "Who came first, the chicken or the egg?"

Either way, may they rest in peace.
DaKardii
Posts: 955
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Former IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard warns that the Biden stimulus could lead to high inflation and a sharp increase in interest rates.

https://twitter.com/ojblanchard1/status ... 0329927680
Zoomer go Brr

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Zoomer go Brr »

Whatever Trump does next will likely have minimal effect on anything. His core supporters have been revealed to be lunatic conspiracy theorists. Sadly logical people have abandoned the Trump version of the Republican Party because his core is insane and he can’t accept a loss like a man. Here are some of the conspiracy theories the Trump core of Q-Anon idiots believe:

- Trump brain-swapped with Biden.
- Biden is a show president or a hologram, Trump is executing “criminals” at the WH currently
- Biden is in hiding and giving press conferences from a studio in California
- Trump is a prophet from God sent to stop the evil, pedophile lizard people

Truth is Trump and the Republicans could’ve helped themselves in 2016-2017 when they had a majority. Should’ve addressed voter security, big tech control and censorship, but no, Trump had to try and build a wall. I know I’m blaming the “Victim,” but it was so obvious COVID would be stretched to warp the presidential election. Trump couldn’t even see that and couldn’t even feign care or concern.

What you have now is the following:
1. Open borders to import voters
2. Student loan payoff talk to buy voters
3. Marijuana legalization to attract degenerate productive drug addicts to hope for more legalization.
4. A complete media campaign where if you overly support Trump your career and life are ruined. Most recent example is the sign language interpreter fired from the WH because she supported Trump on social media.

Get what free stuff you can and get ready for the new dichotomy: Far left dem and moderate dem. The democrat primaries will be the most important voting going forward. Republicans will simply be a show party for the democrats to bully, with many republicans willing and eager to take the abuse so long as they can participate in whoring themselves to Wall Street, China, or any lobbyist.
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