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Re: Financial topics

Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 5:44 pm
by aedens
Meanwhile do you feel lucky? I do not but a bear will fade to close only.

Re: Financial topics

Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 6:20 pm
by Reality Check
Reality Check wrote:
aedens wrote:
... we decompiled bots to rts for bios firmware deletion ...
I am curious.

What type of bios firmware on what type of components and systems and equipment were you deleting ?

Does rts stand for Real Time System, or Request to Send, of Real Time Strategy ( game ) or something else ?

What does "bots" mean in this context ?

I am truly curious...
aedens wrote:Old school Unix, the mirrored apache winsox DOS-virus cloaking methods with advanced techniques including the hooking of low-level disk INT 13H BIOS interrupt calls to unhook rash to unauthorized modifications to files. We just reconfiged to deltree.
Pretty much a non-answer, answer.

Lot's of adjectives and jargon, but not much in the way of a responsive answer.

Unlike some of your other statements, this is a technical language I do understand.

Re: Financial topics

Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 6:28 pm
by Higgenbotham
Higgenbotham wrote:This could be very wrong, but here's my best attempt.

Normally, after a bad employment report, the market will tend to sell off at the end of the day, probably to the low of the day. I had estimated that the futures would perhaps rally to 1348 or so some minutes before the close, then sell off to 1342 by day end. Upon the release of "the leak", the futures rallied past 1348 on up to 1352.50 at day end, then were closed at 1351.75. Tonight they just opened up at 1349.25 and have traded in a range of 1348 to 1349.75. Preliminary indications are that "the leak" did not have much impact beyond the knee jerk response.
There's a bit more evidence today that the Central Banks are losing their ability to support the stock markets.

One thing any market observer should check every day is the direction of the US dollar relative to stocks and other markets. Normally, when the dollar falls, stocks will go up on any given day or week, but not always. Whether or not the exceptions are important can be judged somewhat based on context.

Today, the US dollar fell while stocks also fell. Stocks didn't fall much, but this also occurred during a backdrop of Fed speeches saying that another QE bond buying program would be desirable. I clearly remember a similar day where the dollar fell while stocks also fell. It was April 26, 2010, 10 days before the Flash Crash. I wouldn't say quite yet that the door is wide open for a crash, but it may be opening just a crack.

Re: Financial topics

Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:07 pm
by aedens

Re: Financial topics

Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:35 pm
by Higgenbotham
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48127901
PFGBest customer bank account missing some $220 million: NFA
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/u-brokers-fund ... ector.html
U.S. broker PFGBest freezes funds after founder's suicide attempt

CHICAGO/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Independent U.S. futures broker PFGBest said it had effectively frozen customer accounts on Monday after a suicide attempt by the company's founder set off an investigation into possible "accounting irregularities."

In a dramatic turn that may trigger a new round of anxiety over the stability of the brokerage industry less than a year after the collapse of much larger MF Global, the Cedar Falls, Iowa-based firm told customers that they would be limited to liquidating open positions until further notice.
Based on a list I saw, this is the 33rd largest futures brokerage in the US.

Re: Financial topics

Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2012 2:02 pm
by aedens
Given how equity markets have behaved in recent years with historical beta assumptions often breaking down, it's not surprising that these funds have not done well recently.

Re: Financial topics

Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:47 pm
by Higgenbotham
http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-iowa-fu ... ector.html
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Russell Wasendorf Sr., the sole owner and chairman of stricken futures broker Peregrine Financial Group, Inc., intercepted and forged bank documents for more than two years to cover up hundreds of millions of dollars in missing money, a person close to the situation told Reuters.

The National Futures Association on Monday froze the funds of the Iowa-based brokerage, which does business as PFGBest, after discovering an estimated $220 million shortfall in PFGBest's customer accounts. The NFA had said in an affidavit that Wasendorf "may have falsified bank records."

Wasendorf, 64, is reported to be in a coma after a suicide attempt Monday morning, according to a complaint filed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Tuesday that accuses Wasendorf and Peregrine of fraud.
It looks like Wasendorf is a Baby Boomer who acted alone in perpetrating this fraud.

Re: Financial topics

Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:59 pm
by Higgenbotham
aedens wrote:Meanwhile do you feel lucky? I do not but a bear will fade to close only.
Most of the small professional traders I know short a retrace failure. They go long or short depending on what their method is telling them and consider a stop loss to be a cost of doing business. Bearish as I am, I still make it a point to go long in my trading at least sometimes to provide balance. I usually do that by covering shorts but also go net long very small. I was net long very small for a few minutes this afternoon.

Re: Financial topics

Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2012 6:34 pm
by jcsok
Hig - I was net long 3 times Monday, for small profits each time. Told myself today about 1:00 that's stupid, remember that I'm a bear. At about 2:30 went net long, small position again, and then I started berating myself for going against what will happen, but just couldn't keep from trading long against a trendline.

Re: Financial topics

Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2012 6:46 pm
by John
It's all just a gambling addiction, isn't it?