Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Prediction: China will not make a move on Taiwan before the winter Olympics (which they are hosting) in February 2022.

Cool Breeze wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:00 pm

Tom Mazanec wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 6:10 am The Seventh Crisis and the Millennials
https://www.americanthinker.com/article ... nials.html

The Millennial and Gen-Z generations will suffer most from the Seventh Crisis. They need to resist it on a political, economic, and social level, but also on a philosophical and spiritual plane. To overcome it, they must do so by transforming the struggle into a personal heroic experience designed to ensure one’s personal liberty through the establishment and maintenance of Ordered Liberty.

Or they will go into the Long Dark.

Every time I see that guy Jamie on the Progressive commercials I think of Neil Howe. It's like they are long lost brothers or father and son, and both are borderline effeminate. I give John a hard time for not making, or getting bothered by requests for predictions, but Neil will never make them either. Or they are totally lame (he just said inflation may come on a realvision interview with Ed Harrison). Am I the only one that doesn't think cycle theory is good or even interesting unless you can predict something about it?

Once again, for the third or fourth time, have you read The Fourth Turning and John's book?

I keep waiting for some defining event to tell me the Fourth Turning is here. Something like a stock market crash, Chinese military attack, etc.

I think we are in the middle of it now. The mass panic and irrationality is here and has taken hold.

The population has panicked and ran out to get an experimental shot, that did not meet the legal definition of a vaccine before the shot was available (they have since updated the legal definition).

The long term effects of these mRNA shots are not fully know, that is a fact. They are now finding that within 14 days of the AstraZeneca shot there are risks particularly to young women to develop rare blood clots. Was this something the governments knew of but failed to inform people? Or are we finding these things out as we go?

Who is to say what will happen years after receiving the shot? There is a reason even prescription medication takes years to come to market.

With the failure of government institutions and corruption everywhere why would anyone get an experimental shot for something with a 99.98% survival rate?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/astraz ... -1.5968128

Suspend AstraZeneca use for people under 55, vaccine committee recommends
Social Sharing

Canada's National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) is recommending provinces pause the use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford COVID-19 vaccine on those under the age of 55 because of safety concerns — guidance most provinces said today that they would follow.

The change comes following reports out of Europe of very rare instances of blood clots in some immunized patients — notably among younger women.

** 30-Mar-2021 World View: Generational Eras vs Regeneracy Event

tim wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:37 am > I keep waiting for some defining event to tell me the Fourth
> Turning is here. Something like a stock market crash, Chinese
> military attack, etc.

> I think we are in the middle of it now. The mass panic and
> irrationality is here and has taken hold.

Turnings / Eras are not defined by events. The Second Turning
(Awakening era) begins when the first postwar generation (Baby
Boomers) comes of age. The Fourth Turning (Crisis Era) begins when
the Nomad generation (Generation-X) comes to power. In the current
time, the Crisis era began in 2003.

When you're talking about events, you're usually referring to
"Regeneracy Events." These are events, usually but not necessarily
occurring during the Crisis Era, that shock the population and
regenerate civic unity for the first time since the end of the
previous crisis war (WW II, 1945). Obviously, there is no civic unity
today, but a regeneracy event (such as a Chinese missile attack on
American soil) would end political differences and result in civic
unity.

So, I've been looking further into Brzezinski's "Eurasian Balkans" theory which is a major (if not the central) influence on the American foreign policy establishment's grand strategy. With Biden in office, it's very likely that the US will be doubling down on this strategy between now and at least 2025.

There are six countries who are capable of disrupting this strategy to the point of no return: China, India, Iran, Pakistan, Russia, and Turkey. During Biden's presidency, expect tensions to rise with all six of them.

Meanwhile, assuming that John's predictions regarding alliances are correct, expect two rival alliances to emerge among those six countries. The first alliance will consist of India, Iran, and Russia; the second will consist of China, Pakistan, and Turkey.

Because of what's at stake in those regions, in my opinion it is very likely that World War III will start either in the Caucasus or in Central Asia. If the United States and its allies do not intervene immediately, chances are they will do so once either American treaty allies or American bases are endangered, or if the United States itself is attacked.

Outside of a direct attack on the United States, I personally believe that the incident that draws it into the war will most likely happen within whatever countries are likely to be caught in the crossfire between the main parties. Those countries are:

-Afghanistan
-Armenia
-Azerbaijan
-Bhutan
-Bulgaria
-Georgia
-Indonesia
-Iraq
-Japan
-Kazakhstan
-Mongolia
-Myanmar
-Nepal
-North Korea
-Oman
-Romania
-South Korea
-Taiwan
-Ukraine

John wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:11 am ** 30-Mar-2021 World View: Generational Eras vs Regeneracy Event

tim wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:37 am > I keep waiting for some defining event to tell me the Fourth
> Turning is here. Something like a stock market crash, Chinese
> military attack, etc.

> I think we are in the middle of it now. The mass panic and
> irrationality is here and has taken hold.

Turnings / Eras are not defined by events. The Second Turning
(Awakening era) begins when the first postwar generation (Baby
Boomers) comes of age. The Fourth Turning (Crisis Era) begins when
the Nomad generation (Generation-X) comes to power. In the current
time, the Crisis era began in 2003.

When you're talking about events, you're usually referring to
"Regeneracy Events." These are events, usually but not necessarily
occurring during the Crisis Era, that shock the population and
regenerate civic unity for the first time since the end of the
previous crisis war (WW II, 1945). Obviously, there is no civic unity
today, but a regeneracy event (such as a Chinese missile attack on
American soil) would end political differences and result in civic
unity.

Yes I understand that.

Every day I am watching for the defining event for myself when I know future historians will look back and identify our Black Tuesday, Firing on Fort Sumter, or Intolerable Acts.

These are events, usually but not necessarily
occurring during the Crisis Era, that shock the population and
regenerate civic unity for the first time since the end of the
previous crisis war

Not necessarily? Can you give me an example of a Regeneracy Event which occurred outside of a Crisis Era?

** 30-Mar-2021 World View: Unexpected invasion

Tom Mazanec wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:28 pm > Not necessarily? Can you give me an example of a Regeneracy Event
> which occurred outside of a Crisis Era?

An "unexpected invasion" can occur at any time.

Also, countries like Mexico, Turkey, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Russia
today are in a Fifth Turning, so the Crisis Era has already ended, and
so when a regeneracy event occurs, it will be outside the Crisis era.

** 30-Mar-2021 World View: Protecting Biden

‘Protecting Biden from further embarrassment’: YouTube to hide
‘dislikes’ on videos as users ruthlessly downvote president

30 Mar, 2021 19:46

https://www.rt.com/usa/519642-youtube-h ... kes-biden/

tim wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:24 am

Cool Breeze wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:00 pm

Tom Mazanec wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 6:10 am The Seventh Crisis and the Millennials
https://www.americanthinker.com/article ... nials.html

Every time I see that guy Jamie on the Progressive commercials I think of Neil Howe. It's like they are long lost brothers or father and son, and both are borderline effeminate. I give John a hard time for not making, or getting bothered by requests for predictions, but Neil will never make them either. Or they are totally lame (he just said inflation may come on a realvision interview with Ed Harrison). Am I the only one that doesn't think cycle theory is good or even interesting unless you can predict something about it?

Once again, for the third or fourth time, have you read The Fourth Turning and John's book?

Yes