Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

I am going to pick some of what I consider the easier questions and give my humble opinion:

1. Will the U.S. Congress attempt to kick the can down the road again rather than solve the twin problems of a $1,500 Billion dollar per year deficit, and minor ( compared to the long term deficit problem ) automatic 10 year spending cuts which are set to automatically kick in at the end of the year?

Yes

2. If they will attempt to kick the can down the road, will they do it before the election, or after the election, or both?

Yes, they will attempt to delay what ever minor "fix" they will "announce" until after the election. Events may force them to "announce" a small part of the post election "fix" before the election. In any event they will not "announce" a solution, but only another kick the can down the road fix.

3. Does anyone believe the U.S. Congress, regardless of which major party is in control, will ever do anything other than attempt to kick the can down the road, until after another "Great Depression" or another existential crisis war occurs?

Regrettably, No, for the reasons noted in 10 below.

4. Is the $1,500 Billion dollar per year deficits one of those things that "eventually can not continue"?

Yes.

5. Is the current United States economy one of those things that "eventually can not continue", if the automatic cuts go into place at the end of the year?

Yes.

6. Is the current United States economy one of those things that "eventually can not continue", if 1,000s of Billions of dollars in new taxes over the next 10 years are implemented?

Depends on who they are implemented on, and when they go into effect, and many other factors. Currently the vast majority of federal government taxes that go into the general fund ( which pays all the debt and most federal government spending ) come from federal personal income taxes, and a much smaller amount from corporate income taxes, and even smaller amount from all other taxes. Medicare spending and Social Security spending come from other taxes, and to a minor, but growing degree, from the general fund as well.

Currently, the lower income half of the public pay no federal personal income taxes. If the 1,000 of Billions of dollars in new taxes was raised on the lowest 70% ( by income ) of the population, and they were raised very slowly over 10 years, and federal government size and spending was slowly reduced over that same period by even more 1,000s of Billions of dollars, then the U.S. economy might have a slight chance of surviving.

Raising of taxes by 1,000s of Billions only on those earning over $250,000 a year in income, even if possible, would only accelerate the flight of businesses and capital out of the United States. Currently those rates of exit are accelerating a decades old trend.

The slight chance would also depend on changing the tax structure to encourage production of goods within the United States and implementing the only massive tax on imports that complies with the World Trade Organization, that is a federal sales tax and/or Value Added Tax on all goods sold in the United States, elimination of double taxation of corporate dividends, and making the United States the cheapest place to start and run a business from a tax and regulation stand point.

Health care will also have to be dealt with in way that does not require the costs of goods sold by United States corporations overseas to include both the costs of health care for United States citizens and also the cost of health care for foreign citizens. Obama care makes this problem worse, not better. But even the existing status before Obama care is implemented must be fixed to avoid this strong incentive for manufacturing to move out of the United States.

But for political reasons ( the Baby Boomers and Generation X voters will never accept the sacrifices required ) the above will never happen before a great depression or existential crisis war. So the answer is:

Yes, the United States economy is one of those things that "eventually can not continue" if taxes are raised by 1,000s of Billions of dollars over the next 10 years.

7. When will the "eventually" arrive in each of these cases:

7a. ( 3 is true )

7b. ( 4 is true )

7c. ( 5 is true )

7d. ( 6 is true )

Coming up with the answers to those questions far exceeds both my knowledge and my skills.

8. Will the next attempt to kick the can down the road being delayed until after the election change the answers to the above questions?

Answering this question also far exceeds both my knowledge and my skills.

9. If, and when, the "eventual" arrives will there be hyperinflation, or will assets decrease in value, or both?

The answer may be different depending on when a crisis war starts relative to the start of a Great Depression.
Pretending no crisis war at all - then:

I believe the answer will be both.

Property values relative to the value of gold will collapse. The United States Dollar will be repeatedly devalued by either the government, the market or both. The model here being Italy and France during the Great Depression of the 1930s, not the United States, which in the 1930s was a creditor nation with the huge federal government controlled gold reserves which backed up the U.S. dollar. Today the United States has only only a mix of paper and electronic money, Trillions of dollars of which can be created within seconds on a keyboard, and worse yet, the person in charge of the key board has proved he is willing to do so when he believes an emergency exists. Today the United States is also the largest debtor nation in the world.

Commodity values, relative to gold, will fluctuate greatly based on geographic location because a constant global price will no longer exist after the failure of the futures and option markets, and a total distrust of that financial model. Commodities will also fluctuate over time as a result of social unrest, security issues, and lawlessness, at various times, and in various locations affecting mining and production. Local weather and other factors related to growing crops locally will also affect the value of commodities in varying ways, at varying times.

10. Does anyone believe the U.S. Congress can do anything to avoid another "Great Depression" or avoid another existential crisis war?

I have come to accept the answer to that question is no. My reluctant answer to that question is based on two things: the size of corporate and government debt being one, and the political limitations that Generational Dynamics places on our elected leaders and our elected representatives.

An honorable mention also goes to the leveraging, and multiplying, of risk, created by "Credit Debt Swaps" and the financial institutions that supposedly hold in safe keeping Trillions of dollars in deposits of other peoples and said financial institutions which are speculating in such synthetic "investments" using those deposits. And also an honorable mention to the government of the United States for putting the full faith and credit of the People of the United States up as a guarantor of those financial institutions doing the speculating with other peoples money.

We're about to have another debt ceiling debate in a month or two, based on how the national debt is progressing. My expectation is that both sides will be screaming at each other for a couple of months, accusing the other of not caring about our future. Let's not forget the "won't someone please think of the children?" routine as well. About two days before the limit, they'll make some symbolic cuts and promises to cut future spending that will of course never happen. Pretty much what happened during the last debate.

We can't avoid a crisis war. The only thing we can do is prepare for it and get ready for war.

He is not to be trusted as a friend who mistreats his own family.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_ar ... 012_452883
Working at the Press and Communications Unit of the European United Left/Nordic Green Left Group in the European Parliament in Brussels, the 32-year-old German knows a thing or two about media stereotyping and perceived prejudice.

“We want to show our work to a public that is curious and critical about what is going on in Europe.
http://www.marxists.org/archive/luxembu ... l/ch10.htm
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... start=6110 vendee
Our goal is to share information and try to change the way it flows.”

During rapid currency debasement an asset may appear to be rising in nominal terms but actually decreasing as
a claim on the underlying wealth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Re ... E2%80%9319
If you wait for any government to help you will end up as a bleached skeleton.

And when they say we are here to help run for your very life.

Given the mirror of the past I would give them 3 years until it all crumbles
with the main linchpin being the peace accord on Syria setting the timer
for the hard right lunatice on the Hill and Iran-proxy. Best guess

Trevor wrote:We're about to have another debt ceiling debate in a month or two, based on how the national debt is progressing. My expectation is that both sides will be screaming at each other for a couple of months, accusing the other of not caring about our future. Let's not forget the "won't someone please think of the children?" routine as well. About two days before the limit, they'll make some symbolic cuts and promises to cut future spending that will of course never happen. Pretty much what happened during the last debate.

We can't avoid a crisis war. The only thing we can do is prepare for it and get ready for war.

If you wait for any government to help you will end up as a bleached skeleton. And when they say we are here to help run for your very life.

Bulgarian media is reporting that the suicide bomber responsible for the terror attack had no connection to Iran, but was former Guantanamo detainee Mehdi Ghezali, a Swedish citizen of Algerian and Finnish ancestry. He was captured in 2002 in Pakistan and turned over to the United States on suspicion of being an al-Qaeda sympathizer.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/bulgarian- ... i-ghezali/

Cross roads
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/20 ... -corn.html

aedens wrote:Bulgarian media is reporting that the suicide bomber responsible for the terror attack had no connection to Iran, but was former Guantanamo detainee Mehdi Ghezali, a Swedish citizen of Algerian and Finnish ancestry. He was captured in 2002 in Pakistan and turned over to the United States on suspicion of being an al-Qaeda sympathizer.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/bulgarian- ... i-ghezali/

This story was reported in U.S. alternative media 5 days ago on July 19th.

I looked for it in the Main Stream Media for conformation, but none found at the time. In fact the Main Stream Media was reporting the Bulgarians, Israel and the U.S. had no idea as to the identity of the bomber.

Here is the link to the July 19th article: http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2012 ... ased-Gitmo

I missed it thanks. I was watching the story off and on and did not know how long the dna would take
to clarify the facts. Also I am seeing as a few the ICP issues locally. An officer was attached by a hatchet weilding youth.
He was disarmed and incarcerated.

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... all#p10148
http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2012/07/ ... ttles.html
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 120#p10163
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/where-did ... -20-stocks correlation removes alpha

The laboratory is being used to recruit and train junior traders and to provide continuous learning and
development for their more senior colleagues. markit

Under the sun nothing is new. egkrisai "salve for the eyes" thus kollourion "third eye"

Lest I strip her naked, and set her as in the day that she was born, and make her as a wilderness,
and set her like a dry land, and slay her with thirst. In one word, failure. In some words a period to endure.

Simply put, as we know there is already too much debt in the system. Trying to lower interest rates even further in order to encourage
additional borrowing is a fool's exercise. Structurally speaking to date the election solves nothing as we are but in theory runs the Scoundrels
out as Carroll Quigley (1966) conveyed. Nothing has changed but names.

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 130#p10168
H seeing some full circle and prisoner dilemma again, sprinkle in some nash for fun. I observe to date it is a twenty year
playbook and watching the process two cycles it is truly amazing in a GD context. Not a penny more or penny less
to rebel or seek alternative routes of lesser abuse to go or stay. Being of a nature from before Corporate
that you owe no gratitude but a quality and quantity the rest is irony to us dust bowl farmer stock. Three corporate renditions
ago I knew the research chemist before he passed and we talked on countless topical issues to the day's. He said the best day
was when he went back to Rutgers to teach and left the Company. In some ways he never left the Company as we talked on the
projects underway but I could tell he was at peace as he mused of his village and cheerfull under his eye. We were on vacation
and stopped by to check on him and my wifes aunt and the best class we had was on sundays. I still look forward as we are
and no we are not slowing down to be brief. Steady as the ship goes on the starboard side. Last time intentionally
was established what is described as a period of "discontinuity," a period of purposeful, noticeable disruption
that let everyone know nothing would be as it once had been. Austerity measures were implemented that could
be described as shock therapy for those survived the savage cuts in the early 1990's. It was not but a decade or less the
culture switched to bolt on's for growth models and the voyager status to management since for some managers
are now xxv in numbers over time for many. Change is not bad in its self but noted affects of stranded costs
has numerous connotations since as some who actually followed the narrative understand we have come full
circle in facets some will never remotely see. As we all know friends come and go but we know whats it entails
for the remnant which we note as gradualism and consolidations effects to areas of intent. Most have noted
the answer was not even the question as you noted to intent and interpetation from your tenure also.