Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

aedens wrote:We covered that. Rubin based the bonus "his" on the book opened. The CCI was the clean up crew. It roots to are the red and blue less, or more honest than the market of 80% trying to keep all the idiots alive since the 20% have more rights than us. A interesting fact of nature is when
one percent of a critical part fails the probability increases to total demise. The polarity syndrom of extremes distance appears to root this thought disengagment. We have a base acount on the mischeif of groups to draw from and the conseqeunces noted, also the gatekeepers sole duty.

Sometimes you posts remind me of those web pages that generate random key words in the hope search engines will give them high priority.

The funny part is sometimes I will go back and read your "random posts" days, or weeks later and they will actually make some sense.

Not sure if that is really funny, or just scary...

http://the-reality-check.com/articles/Wolf/wolf.htm

to single out the sheepdogs RC

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 260#p15070 <-------- context to below
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... aopen1.png

aedens wrote: NYSE volume has trended exponentially lower for over 8 years

Is that an exponent of a number greater than 1 or less than 1?

What exactly is that series of numbers, those annual New York Stock Exchange volumes, that are trending exponentially lower over the last 8 years?

aedens wrote:Old news for a new day.

Those who do not understand history are doomed to repeat it.

As you well know, the 2007-20?? financial crisis, and the "history" that the Crisis unleashed is still in progress.

I am willing to admit that some of the things I thought I knew about what was on the FEDs balance sheet, and about what happened to those so called "Toxic Assets" on the banks books, was incorrect.

Those $1 Trillion dollars plus of Mortgage Backed Securities ( MBS ) that were not guaranteed by the U.S. Government and also were not guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, and are also apparently not part of the 8 tenths of a Trillion dollars in MBS on the FEDs balance sheet, are clearly somewhere.

One wonders if the orphans and widows should be checking on what assets their source of income is dependent on.

If they are still on the banks' books, then the likelihood of Dodd-Franks being used to implement a 1930s style bank holiday, and all that includes, sooner, rather than later, increases.

aedens wrote:H, what do you feel about TBT until 2013 closes for a percentage term play?

Short answer is I think the meat of the move is 1-2 years out. And I'm not even sure the bears will get anything for another year.

aedens wrote:NYSE volume has trended exponentially lower for over 8 years and today's volume was still a 3-Sigma outlier to the downside.

I'm noticing futures volume is getting thinner, just over the past few days.

aedens wrote:It was a coordinated smack.

I see a lot of what I think is hedging going on. The appearance of large funds locking in profits. That's what my read of the order book indicates. There are a lot of days when I watch the tape (my order book) very closely. I need to blink, though. For those who wonder what I am talking about, my software has an order book which contains all the orders in the futures markets several layers deep on each side, and as each order is executed, the volume is shown. It's not unusual to have this information and anyone can get it for free, though it doesn't seem very many are aware of this.

When there are large volumes of orders available at a price level, I occasionally see sellers step up and take them all. If you have a $10 billion fund and want to hedge it 20% with the e-minis, that's 30,000 lots. So if there are 3,000 lots hanging out at a good price near the close, the manager may want to take most of it, and I have seen 3,000 lot blocks disappear all at once. It may have happened yet again today but I wasn't watching closely. I don't know this, but I suppose if a couple funds put a transaction like that through, the algos might hop on the bandwagon, thinking more might be coming. It's something people can't know, but if you've got an Internet finance site, it can be fun to create some intrigue and keep people coming back to the site. With a subject as dull and boring as hedging in a market with 2.9 million in open interest, and macro funds folding, something has to be written to keep it fresh and exciting.

aedens wrote:Note the total lack of follow-through in any othe risk-asset... td
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... aopen1.png

This is a different case than the hedging discussed above. I've seen what happened last night probably a dozen times this year. I cleared out of 1/3 of my position before the spike, as I saw a decent probability of a spike coming. So the fact that a bloke like me could read the coming spike shows it is not an entirely random attack. There are certain conditions that must exist to lead to the attack. The fact that other blokes like me can probably also read these conditions can make it a self fulfilling prophecy. So here are the conditions:

It happens in the evening when volumes are light and the market is close to highs where stops are resting. Naturally, the stops are there because most traders can't or don't want to tend to their positions around the clock like I do. First of all, his graph is off base because the stock index futures do not lead in the evening, they follow. In the evening, they follow the Euro. Last evening, the Euro bottomed around 8 pm eastern and rallied 20 pips over the next hour, while the stock index futures moved 1.25 off their 8 pm low. The reason the stock index futures lag at that time (I think) is they are waiting for Asia to open up and get some of their cues from the opening of stocks in Asia. If the open in Asia is positive or "better than expected" and the Euro has been rallying and the market is near a high where stops can get hit, then these spikes can occur. And I would guess there are some very clever Asian traders "helping" this process along. And I don't think there's anything wrong with that. If US traders are too damn lazy to watch their positions then they either shouldn't have them on or they deserve what they get.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EHSI& ... z=l&q=l&c=

This chart should show the gap up Hong Kong opening last night, which I believe was concurrent with the 9 pm Eastern spike in the US futures markets.

Hig - I also watch the Market Book when contemplating placing orders. Although I haven't performed any empirical analysis, in just watching the tape, it appears that the market trends to the larger order stacks. Its as if the algos eat toward the large order pool. Fascinating to watch.

1418 of 1425 I was off.

Another Ponzi scheme shut down.

It won't take much more of this to cause a market collapse. The "penny auction" sites are frauds from start to finish, so it's a natural thing for them to have a Ponzi scheme in the wings.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/17/technol ... index.html

ZeekRewards is a companion to the penny auction site Zeekler.com. Visitors to the the ZeekRewards site were told that by paying subscription fees and becoming "affiliates," they could share in the company's profits.

In fact, the SEC said, the payouts the firm made came from the funds of new investors, "in classic Ponzi scheme fashion."