Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Speaking of useless bubbles and a lack of real production, that reminds me of the "Bernake extension" of the current stock market bubble and where it might end. Near as I can tell, heading into the juncture of late September and early October, the increment of 2.5 years, plus or minus 1 month, with 8 of 10 possible hits over the past 25 years, fits best. That seems to be supported by other cycles and the market price structure, but it needs to be kept in mind that there is now quite a bit of disorder in the system, so nothing works as well as it used to.

August 25, 1987 (all time high at that time before the 1987 crash) 25 years ago plus 1 month
March 24, 2000 (all time high) 12.5 years ago (Dow high was in January)
April 20, 2005 (low of year) 7.5 years ago minus 1 month
April 26, 2010 (high before flash crash) 2.5 years ago minus 1 month

October 2, 1987 (lower high before the crash) 25 years ago
October 5, 1992 (low of year) 20 years ago
October 7, 1997 (minor low) 15 years ago
October 9, 2002 (low of 2000 to 2002 bear market) 10 years ago
October 11, 2007 (second all time high) 5 years ago

Based on this data, the obvious place to expect a high would be 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 years from these previous October highs and lows, 3 of which I would say are highly significant. But the market tends to do things that are not so obvious and a high Tuesday or Wednesday, September 25 or 26, would not be surprising. If there's a dip toward Tuesday or Wednesday, a push up to early October would not be surprising either.

OLD1953 wrote:Higgs, I'm sure there's some thinking along those lines, but I think at bottom the reasoning goes that if the public sees the financial economy as a liability and not a benefit, the public might demand drastic solutions. There are a LOT of ways to manage things without going to an 18th century mode of banking.

I wouldn't go quite so far as to say "the idea of Ben Bernake" is "the cult of Ben Bernake" but a mainstream publication just did.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/09 ... cha-think/
Based on what I've read over the years, "the idea of Ben Bernake", which is improved a bit over the idea of Alan Greenspan, but basically the same thing at its core, is:
1. There is a natural cycle of boom and bust that would, in the absence of intervention, result in something similar to the Great Depression.
2. Various mistakes were made leading up to the Great Depression and Ben Bernake is the foremost expert on how to avoid these mistakes and thus prevent another Great Depression. This goes hand in hand with his idea that deflation can be prevented.
3. Asset bubbles can be used as a means to paper over a depression so that the economy comes through that period intact. Artificial means can be used to promote investment in financial assets (for example, holding interest rates at zero so that stock dividends and bond coupons provide more income than cash, or using psychological tactics to create the inverse of selling panic).
Preventing another Great Depression prevents a whole bunch of nasty side effects that those in power don't want, including what you mentioned.

Last note on this. I'm absolutely astounded that this has worked for over 4 years after the Lehman event, for many reasons, the primary one being over 90% of the public is absolutely being given the shaft in open view and is assiduously taking it! I am astounded every day.
Definition of ASSIDUOUS
: marked by careful unremitting attention or persistent application
LOL, Bernake has definitely carefully, unremittingly and persistently applied the shaft to the public, and they've taken it likewise.

A view on the stock market that is similar to mean reversion and rebuts a corollary of "the idea of Ben Bernake", the idea that asset prices can be permanently managed through a scheduled deflationary cycle and things will come through that cycle intact.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35602.html

It will not matter soon. Obamacare will destroy the economy on fees. Example: There will be a HUGE incentive to de-lever, downsize, keep the old car, and work part time in order to qualify for what you would otherwise have to bust your ass 60 hours a week for to end up at the same place.
Why would I bust my ass to work two jobs or overtime so that I can't have time with my loved ones and all my effort goes to pay taxes that go to banks, insurance premiums that go to corporate sick-care and attorneys, and fundamentally spending 30 hours of my life per week to fund the Kleptoligarchy?

Socialism is a mental desease and theft. The fees are $6000 dollars a year. People elect idiots and now the rot is core. We knew this when aids wiped
out the health care system decades ago it was over. Fraud is rampant so they had to do something, so they doubled down on taking the system out. Now some left coast liberals are even saying it will be a disaster. It appears some can do the math now but that time has passed. The Republic has no backbone and the lunatics turn all the knobs to save the planet with the oxy moron smart bombs. Between vaporizing goat farmers making the world safe plus working for aliens Washington needs to f off and leave us alone. Soon the Barbarians will be welcomed to rids us of parasites to pay less taxes as Rome was to stupid to see the writing on the wall. Now they will crater when ever, who ever, where ever since we gave the Letter away and the Book has never been wrong. if you can make say whatever you wish it is as they said as and all did as they seen in there own eyes the effect is certain. As for Ben B I have no issue to what he has done because he has since 1983 said what he would do. I have found him a interesting creature of what Jefferson warned of and Ben knows that.

John wrote:

aedens wrote:Follow up: http://www.wzzm13.com/news/article/2260 ... ing-jailer

Maybe we won't have a war after all.

The armed forces of Syria and Jordan clashed Saturday after Syria fired into Jordanian territory.

Tell this to Jordon. My youngest is named Jordon.

http://www.amazon.com/Obamas-America-Un ... 1596987782
The recent buzz now is something to the effect of will the world go into a dark age by 2016 if Obama is reelected. Maybe they don't use those words exactly, but the description fits.

How Obama plans to use debt as a weapon of economic mass destruction to downsize the United States.

Done.
It's a documentary film now that has been released nationwide and grossed $30 million. 2016 is the name of the film.

Thanks H I will check it out. I started noting the channels in 1974 because some friends who survived the domino theory.
I was online then and noted so called reality of the secular mind with still fresh stench of burning city's in my nostrils of thought.
They convey The conclusion is that we are headed into a crisis and I hate to remind them of the obvious we are in it since
the tech bubble massacre and before also. Numerous never made it back as they lost 1/3 wages and 1/2 benefits then. I remind them
of this because the relationships still apply to purchasing power now even more debased and they will target as inflation IT "have" as
we covered here point blank from the meetings of verbiage now at any means of resolve. PI product inflation targets which are separate
from stock basket pushed separate since Input targeting is offsets in the supply chain unacounted for but as you noted the CFO report
which was not different from our 2009 view as we did very early on to net working capital. Capex is stream controlled better now for node
supply chains but cluster control is what the FED is. Not that it is good, or bad but is, therefore we know the trail to the Letter dismissed
of consequences of moral hazzard. As we note the Senate is on break currently, and since the early 80's are dismissed to local affairs anyway
and is more than well documented. Any one who asserts contrary you can surmise as you cannot see the string since you never have looked
or are on a assasin's mission to obscure and kiss your masters ring. First lesson I learned was money in, and from misery since the four soils
parable. The attack on Jordon was provoked and anything else would be contrary to constructive thought forward. Assad has a bigger problem
now than before. As we know here nothing is new under the Sun. I have some reading to do but the internalized thought to affairs only was
and is past naive from some commentary I have noted to wit.

We are surrounded by morons backed with gunpowder: http://www.theblaze.com/stories/man-spe ... al-action/

Hope to a future of trade and commerce: On Friday, protesters overwhelmed the compound of the Ansar al-Shariah Brigade in the center of the eastern city of Benghazi. Ansar al-Shariah fighters initially fired in the air to disperse the crowd, but eventually abandoned the site with their weapons and vehicles after it was overrun by waves of protesters shouting “No to militias.”

WASHINGTON – At a time when states are struggling to reduce bloated prison populations and tight budgets, a private prison management company is offering to buy prisons in exchange for various considerations, including a controversial guarantee that the governments maintain a 90% occupancy rate for at least 20 years. The $250 million proposal, circulated by the Nashville-based Corrections Corporation of America to prison officials in 48 states, has been blasted by some state officials who suggest such a program could pressure criminal justice officials to seek harsher sentences to maintain the contractually required occupancy rates. "You don't want a prison system operating with the goal of maximizing profits," says Texas state Sen. John Whitmire, a Houston Democrat and advocate for reducing prison populations through less costly diversion programs. "The only thing worse is that this seeks to take advantage of some states' troubled financial position. States Selling Prisons -- Including Inmates -- to Private Industry

http://www.ihr.org/jhr/v10/v10p161_Brech.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... st-SS.html

Fed's balance sheet has remained flat in notional terms, its Ten Year equivalent exposure has soared, rising by 50% during Operation Twist alone, from $900 billion to $1.313 trillion. What this means in practical terms, as Stone McCarthy summarizes, is that the Fed now owns 27.05% of the entire inventory in outstanding ten-year equivalents. This leaves less than 75% of the market in private hands.
Notional level we guessed in hind site rather close even if by accident.
Fed, which will hold every US Treasury paper in the entire market, will simply pull a BOJ, and proceed to monetize everything else: REITs, ETFs, Corporate bonds, but not stop there and go ahead and purchase all the insolvent student loans, pension funding debt, and all other rate-based paper.
The only question is how long until this glaringly obvious endgame is priced in by what remains of the "market." ht z/h
What market did we ever refer to....... As we know it will become clear that the State’s necessarily violent nature results in the consumption of built up capital rather than the adding to or replacing of it. The predatory nature is the advent of relationship. The hope that the Crocodile eats you last.
On the other hand the Goverment is the solution to the human condition which in our family history are genocidal lunatics of fact. I was considering Johns view on rhetorical context of insularity or until I define further on the regressionary traits of avarice.
When this explodes, or deflates which may suffice in terms they will remember this as the event since only 8% of hedge funds are outperforming the market with just 3 months left in the year. It also explains the dramatic ramp in the Russell 2000, aka 3x+ beta central from tylers granular onservation. Pure evil genius as they cannibalize the cannibals.
We have noted the sheep pens funds and as you note the descent into darkness H. We observed the hard rain and the adjusted view to the eye we posited to early but we survived that onset view to recover and reposition from O and his chart correction of view we shortly lingered into. As a few noted the beta chasers are limited and red circled to an extent as we see from aggregate data we Austrians accumulate in the historical context of data from the facts because we clearly understand the keynasian playbook better than the Monetarist Statist view to aggregate pull semantics to Utility and claims to labor.
On a personal note to time dynamics they say what St. Paul taught was good as far as it went but that he had not taught the full perfection of Christ. And this was not surprising, as he was not one of the great Apostles who had been taught by Christ Himself, and received their commission from Him. Whatever St. Paul knew he learned from others. No one can deny his comission to the Gentiles to we leave it alone. In the course of centuries, gallic tribes, related to those that invaded Italy and sacked Rome, wandered east through Illyricum and Pannonia. At length they penetrated through Macedonia (279 B.C.), and assembled in great numbers under a prince entitled Brennus, for the purpose of invading Greece and plundering the rich temple of Delphi. The leaders disagreed and the host soon divided, one portion, under Brennus, marching south on Delphi and the other division, under Leonorius and Luterius, turned eastward and overran Thrace, the country round Byzantium. Shortly afterwards they were joined by the small remnants of the army of Brennus, who was repulsed by the Greeks, and killed himself in despair. In 278 B.C., 20,000 Gauls, under Leonorius, Luterius, and fifteen other chieftains, crossed over to Asia Minor, in two divisions. On reuniting they assisted Nicomedes I, King of Bithynia, to defeat his younger brother; and as a reward for their services he gave them a large tract of country, in the heart of Asia Minor, henceforward to be known as Galatia. Galatia was named for the immigrant Gauls from Thrace who settled here and became its ruling caste in the 3rd century BC. The Galatians were still speaking the Galatian language (Gaulish) in the time of St. Jerome 347-420. Later we read Walker who related the famines from 970 to 1040 and worse followed to the Demise of Rome itself from the signs of the times to conditions of the four soils mentioned to the mind to see. Point being if the time is as Judges we just move forward in the Book to certain ends by defined means. Moving borders of normalcy bias and bent of mind to solutions for borders issues is no different today. I find it a regional paradox since it may be the same kinsman of bloodline they target now.
Good timely article: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-2 ... cy-imminen

aedens wrote:WASHINGTON – At a time when states are struggling to reduce bloated prison populations and tight budgets, a private prison management company is offering to buy prisons in exchange for various considerations, including a controversial guarantee that the governments maintain a 90% occupancy rate for at least 20 years. The $250 million proposal, circulated by the Nashville-based Corrections Corporation of America to prison officials in 48 states, has been blasted by some state officials who suggest such a program could pressure criminal justice officials to seek harsher sentences to maintain the contractually required occupancy rates. "You don't want a prison system operating with the goal of maximizing profits," says Texas state Sen. John Whitmire, a Houston Democrat and advocate for reducing prison populations through less costly diversion programs. "The only thing worse is that this seeks to take advantage of some states' troubled financial position. States Selling Prisons -- Including Inmates -- to Private Industry

http://www.ihr.org/jhr/v10/v10p161_Brech.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... st-SS.html

Public or private, it'll be corrupt. In California where I live, they released several hundred prisoners due to overcrowding. They were supposed to release only non-violent offenders, but ended up releasing a bunch of extremely dangerous people as well. When asked about it, they shrugged and said "Oops, clumsy us." Really helps to inspire confidence.

Trevor I agree with what we have seen here also. Michigan does not have a express lane to Hell either since a very long time ago a truly innocent man was hanged. Meanwhile one guy a few days ago got out for savings a officers life and I truly hope his new lease on life goes well. Meanwhile a few convicted butchers beyond the shadow of any frickin doubt could be hanged in the local park and with applause from the locals. One case I remember was a guy who rented boats and three basically beat the life out him in brutal cold blood. Not much redemptive quality's of that lot we are paying forever. I think private owed is a bad idea for felons. I think a cutoff should be established. Ohio found out the hard way on cost basis for mental services. I remember a 19 year old strapped to a gurney in Michigan until he died. Judge Ensler went off on them as he should and the State was unprepared to any scrutiny to fix it anyway so I guage that event as a linchpin to the effect we had to segragate the truly need to be hanged lunatics and population who just plain screwed up. My Son in law who is Federal dumps out the weeds as we call them and chews them out but lets them go since his area which is vast is reserved for the true lunatics he deals with. Facts that would make your skin crawl.

For those who read anything anymore Amos 4-7 was this summer so pay attention going forward because it is your choice.
Uploaded by Tomorrow's World on Dec 15, 2011
Earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, and all sorts of disasters are increasing all around the world. There is news of mounting food shortages, and long-established governments are facing overthrow by militants.
As I noted the Jordon incident was a fulcrum point for me. Think more say less some say.