Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Reality Check
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Reality Check »

vincecate wrote:
OLD1953 wrote: Knowing the final effects of a law as complex as the affordable healthcare act is not possible until after full implementation, and then you'll have to wait for adjustments to the law and the adjustments society will make to the change in the law. It might be possible to know the full effect about 2020. Blaming the movement to part time on the act seems a bit much to me though,[...]
If an employer has to pay an $8,000/year health tax for full time employees and nothing for part time employees, then the picture is very simple and clear for him. He should try to just use part time employees and as few full time employees as possible. Nothing complicated or hard to understand for him. Mish has had several articles about this. Employers clearly understand this. Common sense should be able to tell you what will happen. It seems you have too much faith in central planning.

There is another Twist to this that makes the Incentive huge to move almost all employees to part time in those companies that now have a mix of full and part time employess and downgrade existing employer based health insurance plans to the lowest common denominator.

As long as all the full time employees you have, regardless how few, have the option of buying a health insurance plan through their employer that meets the bare minimum of Obama Care ( a bronze plan ). Such as a 70% - 30% plan with deductibles into the $1,000s of dollars per year, and annual limits on maximum benefits, plus the employee has to pay part of the insurance premiums out of their pay check ( what all of us would call a very, very poor health insurance plan ). Then, even if one, or more, full time employee makes the very rational decision not buy that very expensive, very poor health care insurance plan through the employer, the employer avoids all penalties, because the employer offered the minimum to only full time employees, and all full time employees are barred from receiving any federal government subsidies through the obamacare exchanges ( they can still buy health insurance through the exchanges, but they pay 100% of the costs without any help from their employers nor from Obamacare subsidies to make it "affordable").

But, if even one full time employee is is not offered a minimum Obamacare qualified plan through the employer, and that one employee elects instead to receive federal subsidies under an Obamacare exchange, then the employer is fined $2000 per year, per every employee, ( the $2,000 per year, per employee, penalty is not limited to just full time employees, but includes part time employees as well).

Which, when added to the new Obamacare change to pre=existing federal laws treating even "very slightly related companies" as the same company, for both Obamacare, and pre-existing federal health care law purposes, will result in a huge financial incentive for all U.S. businesses to down grade their employer health insurance plans for full time employees to the lowest minimum plan allowed by Obamacare, the so called "Bronze Plan".

Obama has given the official U.S. Government seal of approval to U.S. companies down grading they health insurance plans to the lowest common denominator ( Obamacare has approved a "Bronze Plan" as "quality health insurance at an affordable price" ). Obamacare also provides huge financial incentives to do so. While at the same time encouraging companies with all, or mostly all, full time employees to push them on to the exchanges and pay $2,000 dollars per employee per year, rather than $12,000 per employee per year.

Obamacare mucked with the United States Federal code all over the place. Two thousand plus pages of mostly amendments to existing code sections. Yet it chose to create this monster that will do very little good, why? To make the costs appear Trillions of dollars less, than any reasonable insurance plan would cost. While at the same time allowing supporters of government control of health care to go out on the political stump and fraudulently promise that begining in 2014 Obamacare will provide quality health care at an affordable price. The destruction to the U.S. economy, the U.S. health care system, and the people's trust in government that is going to be caused by this, if implemented, is horrific. All to worship the God of U.S. government control of the U.S. health care system as a worthy end in it it's self.
Last edited by Reality Check on Sun Oct 21, 2012 2:21 pm, edited 7 times in total.
Reality Check
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Reality Check »

vincecate wrote: ... I decided to try to address all the Hyperinflation skeptic questions and so have a new post, "FAQ for Hyperinflation Skeptics".
FAQ here: http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2012/10 ... ptics.html

Any feedback appreciated.
-- Vince
Vince - on his FAQ - wrote:More than $8 trillion of the $16 trillion debt matures in less than 12 months.
This appears to be complete fiction.

Only about $11 Trillion of that $16 Trillion is Marketable Debt, the average maturity on that $11 Trillion is more than 5 years.

The largest percentage of Marketable Debt coming due in any 12 month period I saw was 26% and that works out to 2.86 Trillion.

Even that 2.86 Trillion number of appears high.

Where the blog you were quoting got the $8 Trillion is very questionable.
vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

Reality Check wrote:
vincecate wrote:
Vince - on his FAQ - wrote:More than $8 trillion of the $16 trillion debt matures in less than 12 months.
This appears to be complete fiction.

Only about $11 Trillion of that $16 Trillion is Marketable Debt, the average maturity on that $11 Trillion is more than 5 years.

The largest percentage of Marketable Debt coming due in any 12 month period I saw was 26% and that works out to 2.86 Trillion.

Even that 2.86 Trillion number of appears high.

Where the blog you were quoting got the $8 Trillion is very questionable.
Thanks. Where did you find that info?

An Sept 18 article in the WSJ says, " It must frequently refinance this debt which, when added to the current deficit, means Treasury must raise $4 trillion this year alone." If the deficit is $1.2 trillion and refinance is $2.8 trillion that would make $4 trillion. So it fits with what you found.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 93610.html
Reality Check
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Reality Check »

aedens wrote: Simply put they are taxing retards and the so called smart money will and has left.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000087 ... Collection
From Linked Article wrote:
When Scott Schmith finally got his Swiss passport last month, it was time for him to take a drastic step: hand back his American one.

Among the reasons was a pending U.S. regulation aimed at tracking down tax cheats that is making life difficult for some Americans abroad. These expatriates say that foreign banks, which have expressed concern about compliance costs and potential penalties for failing to report on their American clients, are turning away their business.

John E. Roudabush, an American who lives near Lausanne, Switzerland, couldn't get a mortgage from Swiss banks. He's shown here shown with his wife, Catherine, and daughter Cassandra.

The new law, expected to be phased in over several years, requires foreign banks to identify Americans among their clients and to provide their financial information to the Internal Revenue Service. Just one person overlooked could mean a penalty equivalent to 30% of a bank's U.S. income.

The measure, known as the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, or Fatca, applies globally. Swiss banks are particularly nervous. The U.S. has alleged that 11 Swiss banks helped Americans avoid paying taxes.

Most banks in Switzerland have little appetite to deal with such risk and are quietly—or openly—ushering American clients out or limiting the range of products offered to them, tax experts and bankers say.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000087 ... Collection
Reality Check
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Reality Check »

vincecate wrote:
Vince - on his FAQ - wrote:More than $8 trillion of the $16 trillion debt matures in less than 12 months.
Reality Check wrote: Even a 2.86 Trillion number appears high.
vincecate wrote: Thanks. Where did you find that info?
The blog you were quoting was using 50% of the total $16 Trillion dollar debt.

Currently as of October, 22nd, 2012:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLog ... %20Rhoades
U.S. Treasury wrote:Total Public Debt Outstanding: 16,198,000,000,000
sub-total - Debt Held by the Public: 11,347,000,000,000
sub-total - Intragovernmental Holdings: 4,851,000,000,000
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLog ... %20Rhoades

U.S. Treasury.gov links related to "Marketable Public Debt" Maturities here:
PDF Pages 16,18,20,24.27,29,30 are of Interest in the below linked U.S. Bureau of Public Debt 2011 vs 2010 Report:
The detailed discussion and graph on page 18 indicates why fiscal 2012 and fiscal 2013, have been, and will be, peak percentage refinancing years:

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/repo ... nn2011.pdf

PDF Pages 23, 22, 25. 24 are of Interest in the below linked U.S Office of Debt Management - Q3 - FY 2012 - Report:
This is the most current
- actual data through June 30th, 2012 :
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center ... 202012.pdf

The "maturity" information on the "Intragovernment Holdings" Debt of 4,851,000,000,000 is not so readily available and the term maturity and re-finance has a different meaning for the "Intragovernment Debt". The so called Social Security Trust Fund IOUs ( and the other Intra-Government Debt for that matter ) have historically been refinanced from the ever growing ( historically ) surpluses in the Social Security Trust fund, so maturity date of all that Intra-Government Debt has meant very little to the dissussion of how much money the U.S. Treasury needed to get from the Public Debt Markets, Foreign Countries, or the FED as part of Quantitative Easing Operations. When you also consider these IOUs can be cashed in at any time, as needed, from the U.S. Treasury then the maturity dates have even less meaning for use in projections of future money needed to Refinance these Intra-Government Debts using the Public Debt Markets, Foreign Countries, or the FED (as part of Quantitative Easing Operations). The Intra-governmental Holdings debt has been growing, steadily, over the years but the financing ( and re-financing ) for that debt historically came from excess Social Security Taxes collected from workers.

The 4.8 Trillion number has been dominated by the large Surpluses the Social Security Trust Fund has run for decades; However in the last few years and in 2012 that has changed to a near net zero change in debt in the Social Security Trust Fund. The Surpluses in the Federal Employees Retirement & Military Retirement Trust Funds . however, have been continuing to grow but these trust funds lack the scale of growth historically experienced by the Social Security Trust Fund. Even so, interest payments on the 4.8 Trillion have more than covered the net principle deficits that occurred in the Medicare and Social Security Trust Funds in 2012. That will be changing slowly over the next few years, but projections that have direct meaning to your discussion of the need for refinancing monies coming from the public debt markets. Foreign Countries, or the FED are difficult to find ( at least I had difficulty finding anything that was clear without a lot of number crunching and data from multiple sources).
Last edited by Reality Check on Mon Oct 22, 2012 5:26 pm, edited 9 times in total.
Reality Check
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Reality Check »

vincecate wrote:
Vince - on his FAQ - wrote:More than $8 trillion of the $16 trillion debt matures in less than 12 months.
Reality Check wrote: Even a 2.86 Trillion number appears high.
vincecate wrote: Thanks. Where did you find that info?
The debt maturities - and what percentage needs refinancing over 12 months - for the 11.347 Trillion in Marketable Debt Held by the Public is widely available from the U.S. Treasury. That is where the "highest year" percentage of 26% ( of 11.347 Trillion ) came from.

U.S. Treasury.gov links related to "Marketable Public Debt" Maturities here:
PDF Pages 16,18,20,24.27,29,30 are of Interest in the below linked U.S. Bureau of Public Debt 2011 vs 2010 Report:
The detailed discussion and graph on page 18 indicates why fiscal 2012 and fiscal 2013, have been, and will be, peak percentage refinancing years:

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/repo ... nn2011.pdf

PDF Pages 23, 22, 25. 24 are of Interest in the below linked U.S Office of Debt Management - Q3 - FY 2012 - Report:
This is the most current
- actual data through June 30th, 2012 :
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center ... 202012.pdf

That is the Short Answer...

The more complete answer is: http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 304#p16304
Last edited by Reality Check on Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reality Check
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Reality Check »

vincecate wrote: http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2012/10 ... ptics.html
Any feedback appreciated.
-- Vince
Question ???
Vince's FAQ linked above wrote:...There is also the "excess reserves" that are earning interest, much like government bonds really. If people stop rolling over bonds, and banks take out their excess reserves, then the government will need the Fed to print around $11 trillion in 12 months ($8 for short term bonds coming due, $1+ for the current deficit, and around $2 for the excess reserves).
Can anyone see any reason why the banks, with excess reserves of some 1.x Trillion in Federal Reserve Accounts credited to the banks, can not just request all of those excess reserves be converted into printed "Federal Reserve Notes" and distributed to the commercial banks that made the requests ?

Of course the above question assumes that each individual bank would be limited to converting only those excess reserves credited to that specific bank.
aedens
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Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

http://dailybail.com/home/ex-citi-chmn- ... -in-t.html
May the looting continue as your coke or pepsi candidate discuss your options to serve them or else.
http://home.comcast.net/~davidriggs01/right.htm
Time to smell the coffee people. Prepare to be found in his works only.
Steven was ready. As we noted stand your ground, they have none since
the letter and the book mean nothing to them.

when everyone did that which was right in his own eyes

Three things have brought us to today. Marc is spot on but we must judge the conduct of our own net works.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49500213
I will not convey the periods of decades of decline we know as fact. Marc sugar coated reality for some so I can respect the message and his resolve of work. We know we must press forward but most cannot fathom what we see. I cannot judge since we cannot as told. We can only do our duty since fear of the word conveys that truth only. Many know this already so take care.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NJ23Ak03.html

Old posted this site again for us. http://endoftheamericandream.com/
My children who live outside the home in college and in medical school are healers who answer the door with with a glock behind there back.
We have military and law enforcement for many many years in our family. They have my blessing. We will not run, or listen
to liberal idiots that discussions will solve the issues of the day. We want peace, we will not back down, we are legal
gun owners and permit carriers. Welcome to Michigan, mind your manners. Republicans and Democrats are not welcome
since you offer nothing. We are doing the work, you are not.
vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

Reality Check wrote: The debt maturities - and what percentage needs refinancing over 12 months - for the 11.347 Trillion in Marketable Debt Held by the Public is widely available from the U.S. Treasury. That is where the "highest year" percentage of 26% ( of 11.347 Trillion ) came from.

U.S. Treasury.gov links related to "Marketable Public Debt" Maturities here:
PDF Pages 16,18,20,24.27,29,30 are of Interest in the below linked U.S. Bureau of Public Debt 2011 vs 2010 Report:
The detailed discussion and graph on page 18 indicates why fiscal 2012 and fiscal 2013, have been, and will be, peak percentage refinancing years:

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/repo ... nn2011.pdf
I can not find 26% in that report and can't understand what numbers you used to calculate it. Can you show me?
vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

Reality Check wrote: Can anyone see any reason why the banks, with excess reserves of some 1.x Trillion in Federal Reserve Accounts credited to the banks, can not just request all of those excess reserves be converted into printed "Federal Reserve Notes" and distributed to the commercial banks that made the requests ?
Wiki says, "They are reserves of cash more than the required amounts."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excess_reserves

If it is more than required, I can't see anything that would keep the bank from taking out the cash.
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