Financial topics

[aedens]

It is internally recycled via sweeps for marked to market buffer "think POMO extensions of tranches"
and redemption periods to the end of the year of percentages. Hedges are markes of letter as black flags
and the smart money already is gone doing other things as we are prone to do under contracts. We touched
on that element some months ago. The morning mist is already gone guys. The Banks will recycle this untill hell freezes over
as the M2 has a siamese twins. I think Benny and the injets assumed higher fund failures, maybe so who knows since both
are on the same terminal on data. Like we said when we seen the margin float money moved we set there hair on fire and
the Judge agreed on that construct of contract.http://www.hfalert.com/
IMO

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/fe ... t_id=10719

[OLD1953]

The stupid thing is, I could bear up under the debt load we're taking on, if the money was being used in some way that would alleviate the problems. Throwing money at insolvent banks doesn't help anything. Building roads or mines or developing new technologies (and not selling every bit of new infrastructure to the Chinese) would be better than just flinging money like a monkey flinging crap.

The motto of the Great Recession; "WE WANT A BIGGER BUBBLE!". Since leverage doesn't work any more, they want the impossible. We are past the bubble time, it's time now to cultivate the fields and hope for a harvest.

The people who say they want a balanced budget generally don't. They simply want to redirect the money flow, often to their own pockets and usually for very honorable and noble reasons. Nobility actually comes pretty cheap on that scale.

http://www.nobility.co.uk/

That and a few bucks will get you a cup of coffee where I come from, but some folks love the idea of adding some meaningless letters to their names.

[aedens]

Last time in the eighty's houses the city had on book went for a dollar. This time we have record numbers taken back on
land tax sales which is fact. My point being in a few decades how the peoples are corupted. In our area 1968 to 1971 was brutal
and 1979 to 1981 was not much better. It is no inclination to assert this time we have issue even common sense will not address. I still think the area can figure it out after the final tally on this induced bubble insanity and if they do not may the creator have mercy on there soul because this will pass to untold generations the debauched essense of a fallen land.
Last time the City opened its mouth it was "what problem is there with debt funded growth models"
What are the commons to do with children with matches in City Hall. The only active city department is the police arson unit lately.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... nkers.html

Irving Fisher thought credit cycles led to an unhealthy concentration of wealth. He saw it with his own eyes in the early 1930s as creditors foreclosed on destitute farmers, seizing their land or buying it for a pittance at the bottom of the cycle.
The farmers found a way of defending themselves in the end. They muscled together at "one dollar auctions", buying each other's property back for almost nothing. Any carpet-bagger who tried to bid higher was beaten to a pulp.

http://silverbearcafe.com/private/06.10/shutdown.html

http://brucekrasting.com/fed-economist- ... re-stupid/

http://duckduckgo.com/?q=nuclear+genie we get it guys

[John]

From EuroIntelligence:

This is the most hilarious story in our area we have come across in a long time. Suddeutsche’s front page lead is that the German court of auditors has asked the Bundesbank to weigh all the gold after German MPs acted on rumours that the German gold might no longer be there, or replaced by some certificates. The Bundesbank duly counted and weighed all the 82857 gold bars stored in Frankfurt, some 1100 tons. MPs were even allowed in the cellar to see if the gold is still there. In an ultimate act of desperation, the Bundesbank is even considering to let journalists inside the vaults. The problem is only that the gold held outside Germany has not been audited. There are no official figures, but Suddeutsche estimates about 1500 tonnes are held by the Fed, and about 800 tonnes by the central banks of England and France. The total value is some €133bn. The court of auditors has now demanded regular audits of Germany’s foreign gold reserves. The last audits from New York were from 1979/1980. The Bundesbank has since been let into the vault, but not allowed to open the boxes in which the bars are stored, something that has obviously stokes suspicions.

The Bundesbank has released the court of auditors statement, with several parts being blacked out, presumably given the continued official secrecy about the location of Germany’s gold reserves. The Bundesbank insisted that there is no doubt about the integrity of the foreign depots warning that the doubt itself could have considerable political implications. As a sign of goodwill, Suddeutsche writes, the Bundesbank wants to repatriate 50m tons from abroad, melt it and test the quality.

In an editorial, Suddeutsche writes that the gates should be opened for inspections. (yes, no kidding!).

(We are just trying to picture Jens Weidmann opening a vault in Fort Knox and discovering an IOU with a smiley on it. It is hard to beat this story in term “we were robbed” type paranoia. It also has a certain Götterdämmerung quality. We wonder how the Fed, the BoE, and the BoF reacts to these allegations, which are, after all, fuelled by the German court of auditors, an official institution of the German state. The Fed may respond by just sending the gold back to Frankfurt – that is if it is still there of course!)

[OLD1953]

That certainly appears to be a case of nationalism run amok.

[John]

That certainly appears to be a case of nationalism run amok.

Being generally an extremely paranoid person, I'm inclined to wonder
if there isn't a grain of truth in the suspicions. For example, I
feel pretty certain that there are gold fund scams in existence
somewhere, where the fund doesn't have all the gold needed to back the
investments. Of course, those will do pretty well when the price of
gold reverts to the mean. But in a world where the norm is fraud and
extortion, can we really be sure that there aren't some central banks
lying about how much gold they have?

[Reality Check]

I can not find 26% in that report and can't understand what numbers you used to calculate it. Can you show me?

I am confused, Vince, in your FAQ you show 50% of the $16 Trillion, U.S. debt would need to be refinanced within a 12 month period (your point being in a worse case scenario the $8 Billion would need to be refinanced by printed money from the FED, rather than a non-worse case scenario where most of the refinancing could come from the public bond market and foreign countries). Your FAQ here:
http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2012/10 ... ptics.html

When I questioned that $8 Billion number and requested a more authoritative source than a blog, you then ask me where you could find the 2.8 Trillion I proposed as more accurate number than 8 Trillion found in your FAQ ( you did not specifically ask about 26% ).

I responded, in good faith, by locating two, very current reports from the U.S. Treasury Department (reports which I located in response to your request related to the 2.8 Trillion number). Those reports can be found here:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/repo ... nn2011.pdf
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center ... 202012.pdf

The two linked Treasury Reports more than answered your question about the 2.8 Trillion and also provide percentages ( even though you did not request them), both literal percentages ( which included the 26% number in one of the pages I suggested you look at ), and calculable percentages, all percentages support the $2.8 Trillion number, and clearly do not support the $8.0 Trillion ( 50% of $16 Trillion ) number in your FAQ, and also clearly show the $2.8 Trillion as a peak, when considered as a percentage going forward.

Why are you now asking for a 26% number, when the number in your FAQ is 50%? Can you find a U.S. government report saying that 50% of the $16 Trillion dollar debt needs to be refinanced within a 12 month period? I suspect not.

This is not about gotcha questions for me. The actual numbers mean something, and you make some great points in your FAQ. Having a bogus number in your FAQ, like 50% of the $16 Trillion Dollar debt needing to be refinanced within a 12 month period, tends to distract from what otherwise is a very powerful FAQ. You do not need such obviously bogus numbers to make your point.

Vince, your FAQ still shows:

More than $8 trillion of the $16 trillion debt matures in less than 12 months.
http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2012/10 ... ptics.html

Just for the record, your above question about the 26%, was responding to one, or the other, of two posts by me, both of the posts contained links to both of the two Treasury Reports also linked above. In your question about 26% above you totally ignored the second Treasury report and did not bother to include it in your quote above.

If you had, and if you had read PDF page 25 of that second report you would have found the below percentages for Fiscal Years 2011, 2012 and 2013.

I specifically mentioned page 25 as one of the pages I suggested you look at. My previous two posts, one of which your 26% question was responding to, are here:
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 304#p16304
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 306#p16306

PDF page 25 of the second linked Treasury Report, ( the page I specifically suggested you read in the post you were raising the 26% question about ) includes:

Fiscal 2011 26.8% History
Fiscal 2012 26.3% History now. 2012 ( Fiscal ) ended on September 30th, 2012.
Fiscal 2013 24.4% Projection
Fiscal 2014 24.0% Projection
Fiscal 2015 22.9% Projection

[vincecate]

PDF page 25 of the second linked Treasury Report, ( the page I specifically suggested you read in the post you were raising the 26% question about ) includes:

Fiscal 2011 26.8% History
Fiscal 2012 26.3% History now. 2012 ( Fiscal ) ended on September 30th, 2012.
Fiscal 2013 24.4% Projection
Fiscal 2014 24.0% Projection
Fiscal 2015 22.9% Projection

Thanks much! Just trying to understand. I have put a note in my FAQ.

This PDF shows that 40% was under 1 year in 2008. My understanding has been that people are moving toward the shorter term since then. So having it at 26% now is surprising to me. The Fed has been buying the long term and seems to own a good fraction of the long term at this point. I would really like to know the maturity info for debt not held by the Fed or Social Security. The risk is that the general public stops rolling over their bonds.

[aedens]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... SoCZs8WlDg#!

Coffee is ready to be served and so are you. Run For It

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxVEOc_PQ3E

[OLD1953]

If you look at it as collusion between the FED and the Treasury in driving down interest rates to allow for a smaller percentage of the total budget being interest paid, then it makes sense to me.

Same token, a lot has been made of all the new corporate bonds/debts. At these interest rates, it would be irresponsible to NOT refinance everything possible. And the govt is doing the same.