Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Trevor wrote:I'm noticing there's increased talk of a coming war with China, but most of what I read is rather dismissive of their capabilities. "We can beat them easily. Their entire Navy will be destroyed in a matter of days." and similar sentiments. If I remember my history lessons correctly, we said something very similar about Japan before Pearl Harbor.

Correct. And history will rhyme. China is no paper dragon. Of course, they think the same about us, and we are no paper eagle. It will be ugly.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain
FishbellykanakaDude
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

mps92 wrote:
John wrote:** 02-May-2019 World View: Syria and Russia advance assault on Idlib

...
John ... Should the US get involved or allow Assad to perform genocide?
"Allow" is an interesting word in that sentence.

I prefer to think that genocide is never "allowable", but how much "effort" one puts into "disallowing/preventing" it is a good question, as well as how one might "evaluate" said genocide as to it's "relative evilness".

By the way,.. John's opinion on this question is worthless, as are all those with no "power" to say yea or nay about "allowing" or "stopping" that which we'd like to stop, unless we wouldn't like to stop it, although that would STILL be worthless for the exact same reason except in the other direction.

..don'tcha just LOVE relativity!?

And.. uh... I do value your opinions John,.. really, really, really... do. </insert: slightly cringey silly grin/>
FishbellykanakaDude
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Tom Mazanec wrote:... China is no paper dragon. Of course, they think the same about us, and we are no paper eagle. It will be ugly.
Image
Cynic Hero 86

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cynic Hero 86 »

FishbellykanakaDude wrote:
mps92 wrote:
John wrote:** 02-May-2019 World View: Syria and Russia advance assault on Idlib

...
John ... Should the US get involved or allow Assad to perform genocide?
"Allow" is an interesting word in that sentence.

I prefer to think that genocide is never "allowable", but how much "effort" one puts into "disallowing/preventing" it is a good question, as well as how one might "evaluate" said genocide as to it's "relative evilness".

By the way,.. John's opinion on this question is worthless, as are all those with no "power" to say yea or nay about "allowing" or "stopping" that which we'd like to stop, unless we wouldn't like to stop it, although that would STILL be worthless for the exact same reason except in the other direction.

..don'tcha just LOVE relativity!?

And.. uh... I do value your opinions John,.. really, really, really... do. </insert: slightly cringey silly grin/>
Assad is pacifying his country and restoring law and order. He is NOT committing genocide. He is simply liquidating enemies of the state and enemies of the law.
John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 02-May-2019 World View: China's economy frays as it closes 'zombie' companies

Readers may recall that 8-10 years ago there were lots of stories
about huge "ghost towns" in China -- towns that had been constructed
with hundreds of homes, as well as stores, schools, hospitals and
various amenities. The only problem is that there were no people
living in these towns. China's government had funded the construction
of these towns just to provide jobs.

In order to fend off the financial crisis, China launched a $600
billion stimulus program. Through its system of regional banks, the
program provided cheap loans not only to build the ghost towns
described above, but also to fund thousands of state-run industrial
enterprises, including steel, aluminum, cement and coal producers.
Just as the real estate construction turned into "ghost towns," the
business loans turned into "zombie businesses."

These businesses have not made any profits because they have no
incentive to do so. Making profits requires developing new products,
entering new markets, and risking failure in other ways. But if
you're going to be bailed out by the government anyway, why do
anything risky, that might call attention to yourself? Another
possible name for these "zombie businesses" might be "Solyndras of
China," a because the Obama administration funded Solyndra, a zombie
company making solar panels before it quickly went bankrupt.

There are something like 10,000 of these zombie companies in China.
Each one might have tens of thousands of employees, with a bloated
bureaucracy producing products that nobody wants, and creating a new
debt crisis as China has to provide more and bigger loans to keep them
alive.

China has shut down 1,900 of them, and wants to shut them all by 2020.
But each time one is shut down, all the employees become unemployed.
China's economy already weakening, and closing 9,000 zombie companies
could trigger a major new financial crisis.

This is one of the possible scenarios that could lead to war. From
the point of view of Generational Dynamics, China is overdue for a
major rebellion and civil war. A major financial crisis within China,
and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would redirect towards an
external war, probably with Japan.


--- Sources:


-- Frayed nerves as China kills off its zombie companies
https://www.dw.com/en/frayed-nerves-as- ... a-48013707
(Deutsche-Welle, 21-March-2019 )

-- China's 'zombie' firms weighing on economy
https://www.thenational.ae/business/eco ... y-1.835162
(Reuters, 10-Mar-2019)


-- China’s Zombie Firms Can’t Lurch Forever
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/14/ch ... h-forever/
(Foreign Policy, 14-Mar-2019)
John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 02-May-2019 World View: US-China trade talks may have hit a snag

There are media reports that the US-China trade talks have hit a snag.
This is no surprise to me, since I'm highly skeptical that China would
ever agree to the harsh verification rules that the Trump
administration will supposedly impose.

A US-China trade deal that removes the punitive tariffs that the Trump
administration imposed is considered by economists to be essential to
avoid a world recesseion

China would like a system like the World Trade Organization (WTO),
where they can ignore their commitments, and then ignore the WTO
administrative ruling that finds they violated their commitments.

The Trump administration wants a unilateral "snapback system," which
would allow the US to reimpose tariffs without having to go through an
administrative trial. China opposes a snapback system, for obvious
reasons, since they could be quickly punished for cheating.

With China's economy weakening because of such things a closing zombie
businesses, the CCP are very afraid that they're facing an internal
rebellion, so they desperately need a US-China trade deal. However,
it's not clear whether the report of a snag in the trade talks is
real, or if it's a negotiating ploy to put pressure on the US
negotiators.

As I've said before, the Chinese consider Americans and everyone else
in the West to be lowly barbarians. The Chinese have proven that they
will find a way to cheat on every agreement. Whether an agreement
will be reached, and whether the US negotiators will make the
agreement "cheat-proof" is something that I'm highly skeptical about,
but waiting to see.


--- Sources:

-- Latest China-US trade talks end, revealing fewer details but
continuing efforts
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1148292.shtml
(Global Times, China, 2-May-2019)

-- US, China trade talks may have hit an impasse: Chinese official
media
https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll ... ia/1527305
(Outlook India, 2-May-2019)
John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 02-May-2019 American troops in Syria / Idlib
John wrote: > ** 02-May-2019 World View: Syria and Russia advance assault on Idlib

> This escalation has been expected for a long time. A full-scale
> assault on Idlib would result in a proxy war with Turkey.
> Hundreds of thousands of people would pour across the border into
> Turkey, and from there many would try to continue into
> Europe.
mps92 wrote: > John what do you think the US should do? This is really terrible
> what Assad is doing, but the West is on a collision course with
> the Sunnis. If Assad stays in power, perhaps that means the US has
> another ally when the clash of civilizations happens. Should the
> US get involved or allow Assad to perform genocide?
American troops are on the other side of Syria, in the east, along the
border with Iraq, backing the Kurds. There's no way that they're
going to go to Idlib.

The question is: What will Turkey do? A Syrian-Russian assault on
Idlib will create a humanitarian disaster, and hundreds of thousands
of Sunni Arabs and Turkmens will pour across the border into Turkey.
Turkey does not want this. So the question is not what America
will do, but what Turkey will do.
John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 02-May-2019 Japan before Pearl Harbor
Trevor wrote: > I'm noticing there's increased talk of a coming war with China,
> but most of what I read is rather dismissive of their
> capabilities. "We can beat them easily. Their entire Navy will be
> destroyed in a matter of days." and similar sentiments. If I
> remember my history lessons correctly, we said something very
> similar about Japan before Pearl Harbor.
Were they wrong in 1941? Arguably, Japan never had a chance of
winning the war.
John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 02-May-2019 Worthless opinions
FishbellykanakaDude wrote: > By the way,.. John's opinion on this question is worthless, as are
> all those with no "power" to say yea or nay about "allowing" or
> "stopping" that which we'd like to stop, unless we wouldn't like
> to stop it, although that would STILL be worthless for the exact
> same reason except in the other direction.

> ..don'tcha just LOVE relativity!?

> And.. uh... I do value your opinions John,.. really, really,
> really... do. </insert: slightly cringey silly grin/>
You're absolutely right. It's been well established that everything I
do is completely worthless, since no one is willing to pay me a salary
to do anything. Knowledge and experience are considered to be
worthless baggage, worth less than nothing. That makes me a worthless
human being.
John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 03-May-2019 World View: Massive African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in China having global effects


Image
  • ASF outbreaks in China, Mongolia, Vietnam and Cambodia (FAO)
A massive outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) in pigs in China and
neighboring countries is threatening to spill over into the global
food supply and affect food prices. ASF is an animal disease which
cannot spread to humans, and is not to be confused with swine flu.

ASF is endemic to Africa, and has occasionally spread to Europe and
Russia, where its spread has been largely contained.

When a case was confirmed on the China-North Korea border on August 3,
2018, officials were alarmed because of China's huge pig population.
China has 440 million pigs, half the world's pig population. By
coincidence, 2019 is China's "Year of the Pig."

But apparently there was a mutation in the ASF virus that is making
things much worse than expected. Scientists had expected the virus to
spread rapidly and burn itself out. But the virus has adapted to its
new environment, and instead is exhibiting a slow and steady movement
across Asia.

Although ASF cannot replicate outside of a host, it can survive for
long periods of time without a host, which is why it’s particularly
difficult to control. The virus is hard to kill, withstanding harsh
environments, extreme weather conditions, and even persisting in meat
that’s been cooked or smoked. That means when contaminated food scraps
end up in swill, cannibalistic swine contract ASF. The contagion can
lay dormant in exported corn or grain-based feed, too, until a hungry
pig reanimates the virus, sometimes on the other side of the globe.
The virus is also variable, meaning different strains of ASF are
emerging in different areas of the world. And because the pathogen has
a gigantic genome that easily changes to fit new conditions,
veterinarians don’t have a vaccine against it. (Popular Science)

ASF has literally "gone viral." It's spread nationwide and crossed
borders to Mongolia, Vietnam and Cambodia. In an attempt to contain
the disease there has been massive culling of tens of millions of
pigs, and China's hog herd may decline by 30% this year.

This has already has affected food prices globally, with American
Easter hams costing the most in four years. Prices of other meats
have also been increasing, as consumer switch from pork to beef or
chicken.

China has been severely affected, since pork is a major part of the
Chinese diet. Wholesale pork prices in China are already 21% higher
than a year ago, and China will need to import substantial amounts of
pork and likely other meat and poultry to satisfy demand.

This is one more reason why China is desperate to reach an agreement
in the US-China trade talks. The question is whether they're
desperate enough to agree to the "snapback system" that I described
yesterday, that permits the US to quickly reimpose tariffs if China
cheats on its trade commitments.


--- Sources:

-- ASF / African Swine Fever / China / Pig ‘Ebola’ Virus Sends Shock
Waves Through Global Food Chain
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... food-chain
(Bloomberg, 2-May-2019)

-- ASF / African Swine Fever / The Deadly African Virus That’s Killing
China’s Pigs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -quicktake
(Bloomberg, 1-May-2019)

-- ASF / China / African swine fever has killed a million pigs—and
isn't slowing down
https://www.popsci.com/african-swine-fever-science
(Popular Science, 2-May-2019)

-- ASF situation in Asia update
http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/programme ... pdate.html
(UN Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, 2-May-2019)

-- African swine fever, Cambodia
http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/public/wahid ... rtid=30032
(World Organization for Animal Health, OIE, 3-Apr-2019)
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