https://kirschsubstack.com/p/jay-bonnar ... tistically
Jay Bonnar's anecdote is statistically impossible if the COVID vaccines are safe
Jay lost 15 of his friends who all "died suddenly." All were vaccinated. Four dropped dead within 24 hours of the shot. 3 of the 4 were ~30 years old, perfectly healthy before their death. Whoa.
Most people who call themselves “scientists” are dismissive of anecdotes, especially if the numbers are small (such as less than 20). They are fond of educating people that “the plural of anecdote is anecdotes, not data.”
This is simply untrue. In fact, it is misinformation.
A single, independently-verifiable anecdote can be extremely powerful. It can totally destroy the scientific consensus and prove beyond any reasonable doubt that the CDC is lying.
I’m going to show you an example of this in this article.
One guy whose verifiable story completely blows the "safe and effective” narrative.
I’ll show how we can apply various statistical analyses to Jay’s story to show convincingly that what Jay observed cannot happen by chance and cannot happen if the vaccines are as safe as the FDA claims.
The only way to explain Jay’s story is that the COVID vaccines are killing around 1 person per 1,000 doses as I’ve said before.
Jay’s story aligns with my estimate and is statistically impossible if the vaccines are as “safe” (as the FDA has claimed).
Jay’s story at a glance
Jay is a 57 year old sales executive in Seattle, WA
Jay has 7500 direct friends that he knows personally; he estimates 75% have taken the COVID vaccine: 5,625 vaxxed and 1,875 unvaxxed.
0 unexpected deaths in Jay’s history prior to the vax rollout; this includes during COVID, but before the vaccine.
Since the COVID vaccines rolled out, Jay has lost 15 friends, all vaccinated, who died “unexpectedly.” None of his unvaccinated friends died.
4 of his 15 friends who died died within 24 hours of their COVID vaccine. I’d call this a smoking gun. It’s a clue as to what might have killed them.
3 of the 4 “same day” deaths were in people who were 30 years old
None of them had COVID at the time they died or just before they died. Everyone who got vaccinated and died had COVID at least once. Jay estimates his vaccinated friends are getting COVID at a rate easily 4X more than his unvaccinated friends.
Jay estimates he has roughly 7,500 friends (email contacts, LinkedIn contacts, etc). These are all direct relationships where Jay has spoken directly to that person.
Before the COVID vaccines rolled out, Jay had never, in his entire life, known anyone who died unexpectedly. This means when he heard of the death, he would react as “wow, that was totally unexpected.” So someone who is involved in a traffic accident isn’t unexpected because accidents happen. Someone who has a long history of heart disease who dies from heart disease isn’t unexpected. Someone who is very old dying from natural causes or an accident isn’t unexpected. An unexpected death means the person was fine the day before they died and then, was dead the next day. For example, a 20 year old who is totally fit dies in his sleep. Or a 40 year old develops a “turbo cancer” and dies a couple of months later.
Jay is the very first person I’ve talked to who personally knew more than 10 people who died unexpectedly and who was willing to disclose their names so that third party fact-checkers could verify the information was true. This makes his story unique. So Jay wasn’t cherry picked from thousands of anecdotes. He was simply the first person who spoke to me who had a large enough sample to be statistically interesting and who could reveal names so that his story could be verified.
However, even if I talked to everyone in the world, I wouldn’t be able to find anyone with Jay’s story if the vaccines were perfectly safe and not causing unexpected deaths (I’d have to chat with at least 2e21 people to find such a person which is 12 orders of magnitude more people than on planet Earth).
Key takeaways
The key takeaways are:
The COVID vaccine is killing people at the rate of 1 per 1,000 doses. Jay’s data is exactly aligned with this. There were 14,000 estimated doses among his vaccinated friends and 15 of them died unexpectedly.
The CDC and FDA are lying to you by claiming the COVID vaccine is safe (which means kills 1 in 1M). The probability the FDA is right is poisson.sf(14, .014)=
1.2e-40 which basically says there is no way the FDA is right (14,000 doses should yield .014 deaths per the FDA, and Jay observed 15; we have to subtract 1 because the survival function is >X rather than >=X).
There is no other way to explain away this data. For example, even if Jay is “more aware” of deaths now which accounts for the dramatic rise in unexpected deaths he observed post-vaccine, the sheer number of unexpected deaths Jay experienced relative to the size of his friend network make this an anecdote that cannot be dismissed with hand-waving arguments about heightened perception; it just means that one of the many mathematical analyses (rate before COVID vs. after COVID) could be attacked.
The rate of unexpected deaths is probably around 100X higher than it was before the COVID vaccines (which was very small). Virtually all the increase in this category has been driven by the COVID vaccine. So, for example, in the last 55 years, Jay never had an unexpected death. But say he’s only noticing this since age 35. So 20 years, no events. Now he’s averaging 6 per year. So if he had one death in the 30 years, that would be a 120X increase.
Note that athlete sudden deaths increased by just 19X (538/yr vs. an average of 29 per year per GoodSciencing.com), but there was a baseline of 29 expected deaths per year; the number of unexpected deaths (where people just died unexpectedly was likely <20% per year so 6 deaths that were truly unexpected, so the net new number of unexpected deaths is 509/yr vs 6/year is nearly a 100X increase).
The only way to explain Jay’s evidence is that the COVID vaccine caused the 15 excess deaths.
Jay’s friends who have died
Died within 24 hours of COVID vaccination (4):
Scott Plutko, 53, - work colleague, SVP of Global Channels, Saviynt; talked of getting boosted “to do the right thing” and 24 hours later had a massive heart attack and dropped dead in front of a live audience in London during a tech presentation. Proof he died
Alexander Nuber, 30 y.o. Man, worked out at my gym, perfectly fit and healthy. We spoke in person about how eager he was to get the C19 injection. He received it and four hours later dropped dead at home. Doctors were baffled. He died October 17, 2021. Here is his obituary. There is no mention that he died on the same day he was vaccinated. Are you surprised? The COVID vaccine is the killer that few people have enough courage to blame.
Zach Broten, 30, personal trainer, worked at my gym. Had a heart attack on the same day as the shot and died just days before his 31st birthday. He told other people at the gym he had just received the C19 injection.
Andrew Titus (nephew) - 28, perfectly healthy collegiate lacrosse athlete, died suddenly in sleep right after getting the shot; had received both injections and several boosters. Doctors were baffled as to the cause. Here’s his obituary. No mention he died on the day he got vaccinated
Other unexpected deaths (11)
Jay notice 11 other “unexpected” deaths. They were all among his vaccinated friends. Was that a coincidence? Read their stories and then read the analysis below to determine the likelihood that Jay just got “unlucky” and that these are simply all “coincidences.”
Alejandrino Taculad (former father-in-law), 78, received injections and boosters. 60 days later was diagnosed with stage 4 lung cancer. Never smoked or drank alcohol a day in his life; died 90 days after getting the jab.
Matt Runte, 44, Seattle firefighter. I knew Matt through friends in the first-responder community. Mandated to get the jab (the Seattle firefighters who refused the jab are suing). Matt was out for a jog and just dropped dead right before his shift. Here’s the story on his unexpected death:
Jessica Wilson, early 30’s - Seattle mom, my kids attended the same school where hers did; couldn’t volunteer as room mom w/out the jab per Gov Inslee mandate, blood clots in lungs weeks after injection and died suddenly one week later.
Dori Monson, 61, radio talk show host, met through friends - died of “cardiac event”; he was vaccinated and spoke of his regret for getting it prior to death.
Chloe Nuttbrock, 18, Mukilteo HS student - aneurysm, daughter of a friend/neighbor, vaccinated. Had migraines after covid vax. Died 1 week later.
Gabriel Jungmann, 20, of Bellevue - died suddenly while showering; vaccinated.
Chris Smith, 31, heart attack - XFL athlete, went to my church, vaccinated per league requirements.
Rachel Marshall, 42, owner of Rachel’s Ginger Beer - died suddenly (cardiac arrest). I was a customer at her shop (but stopped going after they required vaccines). Vocal vaccine and mask proponent.
David Black, 55, work colleague (Boeing), died suddenly (cardiac arrest); no known health problems; Boeing has mandatory vax requirement.
Steven Hahn, 54, church member, died suddenly and unexpectedly from “heart problems” - wife said he had been vaccinated. Nobody can explain this. No known health problems. Super-healthy guy.
Michael Howland, early 40’s, died from a heart attack just walking on the beach while on vacation in Cancun, Mexico with family, super fit. Triathlete. Company had a C19 injection mandate.
Injured (7)
Rosalinda Taculad (former mother-in-law), 70, had a massive stroke just 1 week after her second injection. She is permanently disabled now; her husband Alejandrino died 120 days after his injections.
Hannah, friend of my wife - 25, perfectly healthy, stroke and paralysis, permanently disabled a few months after getting the jab. Told me how excited she was to get the C19 vaccine so she could “get on with life.” Refuses to admit it was the vaccine. Believes she was injured because she was working too hard (50 hours/week). Doctors baffled as to how a 25 year-old could be disabled. Her vertigo is so bad that she can’t work. Tinnitus. Paralysis. Constant pain. Thousand needles. No relief.
Steve, former manager at work - VP Sales, 52, heart attack 1 week after his booster; Steve was a vocal advocate of the injections, tried to convince me to take it “to do the right thing” and stated everyone in his family would be vaccinated (see below).
Steve’s 16 yo daughter - HS soccer star, full scholarship to Univ of UT, heart attack after booster and permanently disabled; had to have a pacemaker installed for the rest of her life. Her heart attack happened while Steve was in the hospital recovering from his heart attack.
Steve’s daughter’s 16 year-old boyfriend - HS football star, heart attack after 2nd injection, can never play sports again. The boyfriend had his heart attack 2 weeks after Steve’s daughter. All three of them (Steve, daughter, boyfriend) all went to the same doctor to get injected together. They all had cardiac injuries within 1 to 2 weeks of each other.
Ryan, friend in Canada - His perfectly healthy 16 y.o. daughter had a heart attack just one day after she got the booster. Diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes one month post injection. Previously perfectly healthy. Now has an implant in her kidneys. She’s now 17. The parents divorced over this incident.
Gary - 52 y.o. Man, perfectly healthy and extremely fit. MMA fighter. Runs a security company in the Seattle area. Didn’t want to do it, but was forced to get jabbed by his employer. Gary got the shot at noon and that night had a heart attack. Had to be rushed to the ER. After 3 weeks, he had to get the second shot to remain employed. Today he can’t exercise. Can’t do a push up or walk up a flight of stairs. He can no longer work.
“Thou shalt not bow down thyself to them, nor serve them: for I the LORD thy God am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the children unto the third and fourth generation of them that hate me; - Exodus 20:5
