Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 13-Aug-2021 World View: Invasions of America

> I know from my discussions with a Russian defector, that Russia
> and China agreed to split North America between them as follows:
> Russia would get Alaska and parts of Canada, while China would get
> the lower 48 states (which contains the best land). The agreement
> on this was affirmed by the Russian General Staff in early
> 1992. This joint agreement on a future war against America is the
> basis for the Sino-Russian alliance.

> If Russia was planning to ally with China for a war against the
> US, it would've done so by now. So far, no formal alliance exists.

> Meanwhile, I find it highly implausible that Russia would sign
> onto any agreement that would allow China to get the lower 48
> states, much less in 1992, when Russia was being governed by the
> then-pro-West Boris Yeltsin.

> I don't think we are really capable of establishing that.

> Having said that, I don't see Russia as having the same
> motivations as China, in terms of global domination. China NEEDS
> vast tracts of land because they have 10X as many people as
> Russia. Russia has more land than it knows what to do with. China
> wants Vladivostok. How many Chinese have illegally taken up
> residence in Siberia already? China is taking Russia's women (I'm
> not sure how concerned they are about that). I'm hoping that John
> is right and Russia will be on our side. They surely know that if
> they help China topple the U.S., China will next move to "the
> issue of Russia."

> The closest China and Russia are to an alliance is the alleged
> modern-day equivalent to the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact that is
> targeting Japan. I also wouldn't be surprised if similar pacts
> existed regarding other the countries which share a border with
> both China and Russia (Kazakhstan, the two Koreas, and Mongolia).

> But remember what happened to the original Molotov-Ribbentrop
> pact.

Reading through Jeff Nyquist's blog, it seems clear that Nyquist
believes that Russia is as much a threat to America as China is. As
both of you know, I don't believe that there's any possibility of that
for any number of reasons, including the reason that you gave that the
land-starved Chinese military want Russia's land, and the sex-starved
Chinese men want Russia's women.

Both Russia and Iran are now sucking up to China because China
supports them in the UN security council, and because China goes
around US sanctions. Russia's economy is particularly desperate, so
Putin is begging Xi to buy Russian oil and weapons, and is probably
making promises to help Xi's invasion of Japan or America in exchange
for getting Alaska and northern Canada -- which they may or may not
intend to fulfill.

Why did Stalin sign the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement with Hitler? Was
Russia's economy as desperate at that time as it is today? I don't
know.

Nyquist has also mentioned another comparison -- an unfulfilled
agreement by Germany and Mexico in 1917 where Mexico would support a
German invasion of America in return for getting back its lost
territories of Texas, New Mexico and Arizona. (However, California
would be reserved for Japan.)
https://cosec.bit.uni-bonn.de/fileadmin ... gat07a.pdf

[Navigator]

The closest China and Russia are to an alliance is the alleged modern-day equivalent to the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact that is targeting Japan. I also wouldn't be surprised if similar pacts existed regarding other the countries which share a border with both China and Russia (Kazakhstan, the two Koreas, and Mongolia).

But remember what happened to the original Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

I think that Sino-Russian cooperation has been agreed to, and that it has been the case for quite some time. Yes, this is along the lines of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. Obviously, both sides (Russia / China) have divergent objectives, and do not like each other in the least, but I think that both understand that they could best achieve their objectives if the other pursued theirs at the same time.

In the end, the "allies of convenience" (Russia / China) will start to quarrel among themselves, and will start doing things detrimental to the other. In fact, in the aftermath of WW3, people will be able to look back and say "they could have won if they had only cooperated". Just like we can say this of Germany/Japan, or of the three absolute monarchies of WW1 (Germany, Russia, Austria-Hungary).

I wrote at length about this once on this site, how the allies (or natural allies) on the bad side of past wars have either damaged each other, or done things at cross purposes. A good example is the Italian invasion of Greece from Albania, which backfired horribly. This disaster (by their idiot ally) then required the Germans to go into Yugoslavia/Greece, and this threw off the whole German timetable for invading Russia in 1941 (the Molotov-Ribbentrop ally).

[Navigator]

Why did Stalin sign the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement with Hitler? Was
Russia's economy as desperate at that time as it is today? I don't
know.

Hitler / Stalin entered into the agreement because both wanted half of Poland. Hitler because Poland was the objective in order to establish a link with East Prussia, and to eliminate France's ally (Poland) to the east. Stalin because he had been involved in the 1920's Russo Polish war, and had been thwarted at Lvov (he was somewhat fixated on taking this particular city as a result). Stalin also wanted to destroy Poland, as the west's anti-communist ally on his border.

Also, Hitler wanted to ensure that once Poland had been taken, he would not have to keep large forces in the east, and could redeploy to deal with France.

Once France fell (quickly, to the surprise of almost all involved), Hitler felt that the treaty had served its purpose. And facing the (at the time) only the relatively weak British in the west, Hitler felt he could then redeploy back to the east and take out the Russians.

The Chinese - Russian may have a similar relationship in which each thinks that they will cooperate to take out weak enemies before they go at it themselves.

[tim]

Why did Stalin sign the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement with Hitler? Was
Russia's economy as desperate at that time as it is today? I don't
know.

Hitler / Stalin entered into the agreement because both wanted half of Poland. Hitler because Poland was the objective in order to establish a link with East Prussia, and to eliminate France's ally (Poland) to the east. Stalin because he had been involved in the 1920's Russo Polish war, and had been thwarted at Lvov (he was somewhat fixated on taking this particular city as a result). Stalin also wanted to destroy Poland, as the west's anti-communist ally on his border.

Also, Hitler wanted to ensure that once Poland had been taken, he would not have to keep large forces in the east, and could redeploy to deal with France.

Once France fell (quickly, to the surprise of almost all involved), Hitler felt that the treaty had served its purpose. And facing the (at the time) only the relatively weak British in the west, Hitler felt he could then redeploy back to the east and take out the Russians.

The Chinese - Russian may have a similar relationship in which each thinks that they will cooperate to take out weak enemies before they go at it themselves.

If you were around during WWII where Germany and Russia were allies you would be arguing how Hitler would be crazy to attack Russia even though that is exactly what he said he would do.

During a generational crisis era nationalism and emotional decisions prevail over logic. I'm sure if research was done there were Japanese military officials and politicians talking about how Japan would one day attack America long before 12/7/41.

[Navigator]

If you were around during WWII where Germany and Russia were allies you would be arguing how Hitler would be crazy to attack Russia even though that is exactly what he said he would do.

During a generational crisis era nationalism and emotional decisions prevail over logic. I'm sure if research was done there were Japanese military officials and politicians talking about how Japan would one day attack America long before 12/7/41.

You could certainly argue that Stalin was not very bright in signing the agreement, since Hitler had stated his intention. But then Stalin wanted time to prepare to attack Germany, and his army was undergoing a major reorganization and upgrade (plus still suffering from his insane purge of competent military commanders) at the time.

Many of Germany's top commanders thought Hitler was nuts for going after Russia before finishing the conflict with England. But most German commanders viewed Russia in the light of their WW1 East Front experience, where the Russians caved to any concerted German efforts. So they thought Russia would be a quick and successful campaign.

The Japanese were certainly gearing to go to war with America. This "eventuality" was recognized by both Japan and the US back to the 1920's (note Billy Mitchell's statement to that effect during his court martial).

In the end going to war is almost always an emotional decision. And much logic (as in who to go after, who you should ally with) goes out the window.

Consider what would have happened if Germany and Russia were allied in WW2. Everyone else would have been toast. Luckily, the forces of evil have a self-destructive tendency to destroy or weaken each other.

[Cool Breeze]

Consider what would have happened if Germany and Russia were allied in WW2. Everyone else would have been toast. Luckily, the forces of evil have a self-destructive tendency to destroy or weaken each other.

Yep.

[spottybrowncow]

Consider what would have happened if Germany and Russia were allied in WW2. Everyone else would have been toast.

Are you sure we couldn't have built more than 2 atomic bombs?

[Navigator]

Are you sure we couldn't have built more than 2 atomic bombs?

We had nuclear research and atomic bombs because we had oodles of excess industrial and research capacity. With Germany and USSR allied, we would have had to put all of those resources into building regular ships and airplanes and sending everyone off to the army.

Also, the Germans would have had the resources, and time, to build their own atomic weapons.

Nazi Germany and USSR would have been unstoppable by the rest of the world. Luckily, their ideology caused them to see each other as mortal enemies.

[John]

** 14-Aug-2021 World View: Haiti earthquake

There is probably no country in the world where the people
are more miserable because of disease and poverty, especially
after a massive earthquake in 2010.

Apparently there's been another massive earthquake this morning.

https://www.reuters.com/business/enviro ... 021-08-14/

[John]

** 14-Aug-2021 World View: Taliban encircling Afghan capital Kabul, prepping final assault through east

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives ... h-east.php

• Taliban knocking on the door, 14-Aug-2021 (Long War Journal)

The Taliban’s seemingly unstoppable offensive, which has seen the
group take control of more than half of Afghanistan’s provinces in
only nine days, is circling around the country’s capital and largest
city in Kabul. Today the Taliban took control of the provinces of
Paktika, Paktia, Laghman, Maimana and Kunar as well as Mazar-i-Sharif,
Afghanistan’s second largest city, and is consolidating its control of
the east in preparation for its culminating assault on Kabul. ...

The Afghan military is in complete disarray, and has been defeated in
detail across the country. ...

The Taliban’s strategy has given the Afghan government nowhere to run.
After consolidating its control of more than 170 of Afghanistan’s
contested districts, the Taliban swiftly moved to take the strategic
north and deny the country’s power brokers their base of support.
Concurrently, the Taliban seized the west and south, both which are
firmly under Taliban control. With these three key regions secured,
the Taliban has worked its way up from the south to quickly gobble up
the eastern provinces, with the final objective being the assault of
Kabul. -- Long War Journal