Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

John wrote:** 04-May-2019 China and North Korea missile tests

Guest wrote: > Translation, President XI told Kim to fire off a rocket.

This is not what China wants. What China wants is for the US to
withdraw all its forces from the area, including the THAAD missiles in
southern South Korea. This missile test will only increase the
determination of the US government to keep its forces there, and will
also increase the determination of the South Korean government to keep
the US forces there.

Kim is Xi's vassal. Once again, Kim has disobeyed Xi's orders.
How will Xi punish Kim?

** 29-Apr-19 World View -- South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190429

So if NK is really a loose cannon, where does this leave GT? Could the NKs do something reckless and start WW3? NK plays by its own rules.

Guest wrote:

John wrote:** 04-May-2019 China and North Korea missile tests

Guest wrote: > Translation, President XI told Kim to fire off a rocket.

This is not what China wants. What China wants is for the US to
withdraw all its forces from the area, including the THAAD missiles in
southern South Korea. This missile test will only increase the
determination of the US government to keep its forces there, and will
also increase the determination of the South Korean government to keep
the US forces there.

Kim is Xi's vassal. Once again, Kim has disobeyed Xi's orders.
How will Xi punish Kim?

** 29-Apr-19 World View -- South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190429

So if NK is really a loose cannon, where does this leave GT? Could the NKs do something reckless and start WW3? NK plays by its own rules.

Sure NK could do something stupid and start WW3. That is what GD teaches...NK (along with Kashmir, Taiwan, and several other places) could start WW3 at any time. Eventually, one of them will.

"(Book) Review: The Accidental Superpower by Peter Zeihan" -Caspian Report (Shirvan)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMq-OREx5Zw

Tom Mazanec wrote:

Guest wrote:

John wrote:** 04-May-2019 China and North Korea missile tests

This is not what China wants. What China wants is for the US to
withdraw all its forces from the area, including the THAAD missiles in
southern South Korea. This missile test will only increase the
determination of the US government to keep its forces there, and will
also increase the determination of the South Korean government to keep
the US forces there.

Kim is Xi's vassal. Once again, Kim has disobeyed Xi's orders.
How will Xi punish Kim?

** 29-Apr-19 World View -- South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190429

So if NK is really a loose cannon, where does this leave GT? Could the NKs do something reckless and start WW3? NK plays by its own rules.

Sure NK could do something stupid and start WW3. That is what GD teaches...NK (along with Kashmir, Taiwan, and several other places) could start WW3 at any time. Eventually, one of them will.

Time has proven that it's far more easy to believe that the trigger of a world war is more sensitive than it actually is.

Therefore, I'm taking the position that it's LESS likely (until 2023ish) that some triggering event will start the next world war than the "mean" opinion of the denizens of this forum.

There's far too much "flex" and "elastic deformation" in the trigger mechanism, in my entirely intuitive opinion, to make me panic and chicken-little around in public.

More compression of the spongy and bendy bits, so as to make them more effectively drive the hammer home, is required.

"Easy Money" (not to be confused with the tune or Eddy Money) is the support of the "space" that allows that anti-war flexibility,.. and when THAT space starts getting rapidly filled in, THEN I'm heading into the tiny islands of the Pacific with or without my tiny boat.

..I tread water REALLY really well...
(Which makes me shark food, but still...)

FishbellykanakaDude wrote:

Tom Mazanec wrote:

Guest wrote: So if NK is really a loose cannon, where does this leave GT? Could the NKs do something reckless and start WW3? NK plays by its own rules.

Sure NK could do something stupid and start WW3. That is what GD teaches...NK (along with Kashmir, Taiwan, and several other places) could start WW3 at any time. Eventually, one of them will.

Time has proven that it's far more easy to believe that the trigger of a world war is more sensitive than it actually is.

Therefore, I'm taking the position that it's LESS likely (until 2023ish) that some triggering event will start the next world war than the "mean" opinion of the denizens of this forum.

There's far too much "flex" and "elastic deformation" in the trigger mechanism, in my entirely intuitive opinion, to make me panic and chicken-little around in public.

More compression of the spongy and bendy bits, so as to make them more effectively drive the hammer home, is required.

"Easy Money" (not to be confused with the tune or Eddy Money) is the support of the "space" that allows that anti-war flexibility,.. and when THAT space starts getting rapidly filled in, THEN I'm heading into the tiny islands of the Pacific with or without my tiny boat.

..I tread water REALLY really well...
(Which makes me shark food, but still...)

You don't live in Asia. How do I know that? Simple: if you did you would know the economies here are unraveling. High youth unemployment and social unrest are growing. Companies are going bankrupt at a rate not seen since the 1997 crisis. It's not bad here; it's disastrous. If it's bad in Korea, it must be catastrophic in China. I've witnessed 'social unrest' (there is a euphemism if I ever seen one), and it was a full scale riot. I saw that back in 2007. I was lucky not to be arrested as a foreigner just for witnessing such an event. China is coming apart at the seams. They will fight to preserve unity.

--Chicken Little

Guest in Seoul wrote:

FishbellykanakaDude wrote:...

You don't live in Asia. How do I know that? Simple: if you did you would know the economies here are unraveling. High youth unemployment and social unrest are growing. Companies are going bankrupt at a rate not seen since the 1997 crisis. It's not bad here; it's disastrous. If it's bad in Korea, it must be catastrophic in China. I've witnessed 'social unrest' (there is a euphemism if I ever seen one), and it was a full scale riot. I saw that back in 2007. I was lucky not to be arrested as a foreigner just for witnessing such an event. China is coming apart at the seams. They will fight to preserve unity.

--Chicken Little

Why didn't a world war commence in 1997, or 2017?

I'm not arguing that there is no localized "trigger compression". I'm just saying that there is presently enough "system wide" flex to buffer wide scale panic,.. which would trigger a world war.

And, are you saying that you feel lucky you weren't arrested IN SOUTH KOREA for witnessing "social unrest"?

..that's something I haven't heard anything about. Sounds fascinating! Do tell...

How long did it take you to get an ISBN from Bowers? Is that the same as having a copyright?

** 05-May-2019 Bowkers.com / myidentifiers.com - Updated

Guest wrote: > How long did it take you to get an ISBN from Bowers? Is that the
> same as having a copyright?

Or maybe it's Bowsers.

Anyway, go to the website (Bowker.com or myidentifiers.com), create
an account, decide which of the enormously bloated, expensive things
you want, give them a credit card, and you receive an e-mail message
within a few minutes.

Update: I forgot to mention: Your work is copyrighted automatically,
as soon as you put pen to paper or as soon as you type it.
Just put a notice like "Copyright 2019 by xxx" on your work.

If you want to spend money, then you can register the copyright. That
way, if anyone steals your stuff, then you have the right to spend
tens of thousands of dollars more to pursue the robber in court.

** 05-May-2019 2023

FishbellykanakaDude wrote: > Therefore, I'm taking the position that it's LESS likely (until
> 2023ish) that some triggering event will start the next world war
> than the "mean" opinion of the denizens of this forum.

Where did you come up with 2023? Do you have a reason, or does 2023
just feel good? Do you have an analytical approach, or are you just
making things up as you go along to match some ideology?

The riot in was in China in 2007. I saw it. It was bad. I made my way carefully back to my hotel. That night, nothing on the news about it. Nothing. I honestly believe that if the Chinese police had spotted me, they would arrested me and I would have vanished. China is a scary place. And this took place 12 years ago. What is it like NOW?

In 1997, it was Asia in crisis, but the IMF stepped in with loans. Today the whole world is in crisis. Who will save the world now?

I will never return to China. China is over for me. Any foreigner that stays there will be killed eventually. Consider yourself warned.