Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

DaKardii wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:01 pm Whoa! France just recalled its ambassadors from both the US and Australia over this sub deal.

Could this be the beginning of the end of the Franco-American alliance? And if so, could this be the beginning of a French realignment with China and/or Russia?

And what about NATO? Can the alliance survive a break in Franco-American relations?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/france- ... -deal.html

Would you stopped squealing like a little girl every five minutes?

Your pronouncements are so extreme and corny that not even a tabloid would hire you.

John, how do you think the Evergrande situation will influence China? Will it make the war more likely to begin soon rather than later?

China has had a lot of disasters like this one. The government choose to hide them. This time they are not. I don't think it will destabilize the CCP. If anything, it will be an excuse to scapegoat a fee more rivals.

In a war, the Chinese would start having food shortages on day 1. The Chinese govt does care about the average Chinese, but there will be violence in the streets.

Guest wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:52 am

DaKardii wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:01 pm Whoa! France just recalled its ambassadors from both the US and Australia over this sub deal.

Could this be the beginning of the end of the Franco-American alliance? And if so, could this be the beginning of a French realignment with China and/or Russia?

And what about NATO? Can the alliance survive a break in Franco-American relations?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/france- ... -deal.html

Would you stopped squealing like a little girl every five minutes?

Your pronouncements are so extreme and corny that not even a tabloid would hire you.

You want to talk about people being extreme? Then why don't we talk about the leaders of both France and the US?

France is withdrawing its ambassador over a SUBMARINE DEAL. And the US has leadership factions that are run by total psychopaths and probably are willing to retaliate by sponsoring a coup or color revolution.

To change the subject a bit, this piece of news is mind-boggling;

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/north-c ... eople.html

Two judges actually all but said that blacks and other people of color were too stupid to obtain an ID card.
The democratic plantation is alive and well, sadly.

DaKardii wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:01 pm Whoa! France just recalled its ambassadors from both the US and Australia over this sub deal.

Could this be the beginning of the end of the Franco-American alliance? And if so, could this be the beginning of a French realignment with China and/or Russia?

And what about NATO? Can the alliance survive a break in Franco-American relations?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/france- ... -deal.html

I just realized that the UK is also a party to the sub agreement. Now France's response makes a bit more sense to me.

Relations between France and the UK have been slowly deteriorating since Brexit, as the UK resets its foreign policy to the pre-WWII doctrine of preventing Western Europe from being dominated by a single power while France's clout over the EU is significantly increased due to the lack of an internal British counterbalance.

Thus, it would make sense if France responded the way it did because it sees this agreement as part of a British plot to undermine France's influence around the world, with the USA and Australia collaborating with the UK out of some sort of "Anglosphere superiority complex." And in this specific case, the USA and Australia did most of the dirty work, which is why France retaliated diplomatically against them but not the UK itself.

Of course, this is just my personal speculation again.

DaKardii wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 5:01 pm I just realized that the UK is also a party to the sub agreement. Now France's response makes a bit more sense to me.

Relations between France and the UK have been slowly deteriorating since Brexit, as the UK resets its foreign policy to the pre-WWII doctrine of preventing Western Europe from being dominated by a single power while France's clout over the EU is significantly increased due to the lack of an internal British counterbalance.

Thus, it would make sense if France responded the way it did because it sees this agreement as part of a British plot to undermine France's influence around the world, with the USA and Australia collaborating with the UK out of some sort of "Anglosphere superiority complex." And in this specific case, the USA and Australia did most of the dirty work, which is why France retaliated diplomatically against them but not the UK itself.

Of course, this is just my personal speculation again.

On a side note, the idea that a major power's resentment -- over what it sees as being sidelined within in a (potential) coalition by other major powers -- would be enough to drive that major power to "switch sides" in the general geopolitical conflict, shouldn't be discounted. Because that's exactly what happened with Italy after WWI.

Mussolini came to power due to the Italian population being angry with Britain and France over what they saw as Italy being sidelined at Versailles. But even after he came to power, he was still interested in allying Italy with Britain and France against a resurgent Germany. But then again, after Britain and France condemned him for invading Ethiopia, he again felt that Italy was being sidelined, and decided ally with Germany just to spite Britain and France, even though such an alliance was against Italy's national interests.

Could Macron -- who has a big ego himself -- be arrogant enough to ally France with China, just like Mussolini was arrogant to ally Italy with Germany?

** 18-Sep-2021 World View: France vs England

DaKardii wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 5:01 pm > I just realized that the UK is also a party to the sub
> agreement. Now France's response makes a bit more sense to me.

> Relations between France and the UK have been slowly deteriorating
> since Brexit, as the UK resets its foreign policy to the pre-WWII
> doctrine of preventing Western Europe from being dominated by a
> single power while France's clout over the EU is significantly
> increased due to the lack of an internal British counterbalance.

> Thus, it would make sense if France responded the way it did
> because it sees this agreement as part of a British plot to
> undermine France's influence around the world, with the USA and
> Australia collaborating with the UK out of some sort of
> "Anglosphere superiority complex." And in this specific case, the
> USA and Australia did most of the dirty work, which is why France
> retaliated diplomatically against them but not the UK itself.

> Of course, this is just my personal speculation again.

That's right. The French officials have been going around describing
this as the English-speaking countries (US, UK and Australia) pivoting
to Asia, leaving France out. They're saying that this betrayal is
extremely serious, and goes far beyond the cancellation of the $90
billion contract.

We keep trying to guess how Europe will split up during a new world
war. Maybe we'll see a new Battle of Waterloo.

France is never going to align with Russia or China. That's not even a silly question. And NATO survived just fine when France removed itself from the NATO command structure.

France was aligned with Russia ca. 1890-1917. Caused much evil in the world, especially when Britain stopped trying to ride herd on two rival blocs in Europe and started to back France without checking what France's ally Russia was up to. That is how Britain wound up losing a million men in WW I over Serbian machinations in the Balkans. Belgium had nothing to do with it--if France had occupied Belgium (which they would have been able to do in 1917 IF the war had started then (long story) Britain would NOT have done a thing! Historically France has been a Center-Left sort of country, like the US 1933-1980 so being Friendly to the Soviets/Russia is entirely plausible, and the one way the Germans can avoid being called neo-Nazi is by adopting pro-Soviet/Russian policies, this last is the consequence of popular World War II Propaganda whose consequences Britain and America must pay heed to. It's a perverse trap of Popular Democracy to be enslaves to past propaganda. But I don't expect France to go in a Russian orbit now--Putin is no longer a young man and he has no sons so little possibility we'll see a "Boris [Vladimir] Putinov" staged. France will sulk--they usually do--and then come up with something maybe. But I do wonder WHY the Aussies decided in 2016 on such inferior submarines?