Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

John and Higgenbotham, we know what is coming - my question is why does nobody here discuss on how to prepare for it?

Higgenbotham repeatedly talks about the coming dark age - which I do not disagree with but I have yet to see anyone mention anything about getting ready.

Two years ago, Lily was asking this question. My answer at the time was that we don't yet know how deep the collapse will be, so any preparations this far ahead would have to be based on assumptions about that.

Now, because of what happened in Europe and the US in the second half of 2011, and the lack of proactive response by anybody, it's my assumption that the collapse will be very deep, like about an order of magnitude worse than the Great Depression. So we know that much. That has several obvious implications as far as the end point. It means all central governments are going to collapse and be replaced by local governments. It means that the monetary system is going to completely collapse and all currencties are going to end up worthless.

The next question is how long is all of this going to take and what is the likely path it will take. It may be, as many here have stated, that you only want to be concerned with positioning yourself with that end point. My advice would be that's the wrong way to look at it in most respects.

Let me give a few examples of that.

Just in the past couple months, there has been news out of Britain that life threatening antibiotic resistant pathogens are causing exponentially increasing numbers of deaths and that concern has been recommended to be elevated to a national security concern in Britain. Clearly, the path of pathogens being the leading killer is a possible path this could take, much as the Black Death wiped out 1/3 of Europe during the last dark age. So my advice at this point would be to be alert to the vectors by which the populations could be reduced and to develop a plan which covers the most likely scenarios as things evolve.

Another example would be, if you had asked me 3 years ago where in the US would be the best place to locate, North Dakota would have been pretty high up on the list. But I didn't see the fracking boom coming. Likewise, there's a beautiful valley in Colorado that some have relocated to and put their life savings and work into to create sustainable living that is now contaminated by the fracking activity that has completely surrounded that area. You can pretty much figure that, after the central governments collapse, any environmental contamination is not going to be remediated and will get worse. If you don't know where it is now, you're not going to know later. If something is clean now, it might not be in a few years after the mad rush to strip everything useful out to try to stave off the collapse. If there's a good water source like the Ogallalla Aquifer, don't depend on it being there by the time they get done with it.

The next subject that comes to mind is personal safety. When the central governments break down, you are going to be under the jurisdiction of whatever local thugs happen to rule a certain area and there will be wide variations there. I guess the implications to that are obvious but it's probably something that only 1 person in 1000 has even thought of. The most obvious in my mind is that you will want to surround yourself with as many like minded people who you know and trust both in the particular dwelling you are living in and the area surrounding that. A certain rural location might be ideal, but if you out there by yourself amongst a close knit group of starving people, then you are a target, or your garden or your chickens are a target.

My personal belief is that the collapse into the dark age is going to be a case of attrition and being among a group that can ride it out until the population decline hits bottom. So one thing I've been doing, for example, is going for a couple days without eating and finding out how that feels, what my body can take as far as a minimal amount of input, and getting adjusted to that hardship. Also, remember that while you may have food storage and a garden, there may be local thugs or just plain desperate people who are going to try to appropriate whatever you have, so having your food storage or garden out in plain sight may not help. Like I said, this isn't going to be pretty and I don't see a lot of discussion anywhere that I consider to be very realistic as far as how I believe this is going to go down.

[aedens]

The only trip wires is the nail China needs to hammer and Syria since the Russians would rather have Vodka and Blonds and warm water ports for the great game since peter the great. Also It look s like a longer holiday http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-1 ... liday.html

[Higgenbotham]

Here's the way I look at it personally. A lot of people have said, OK, I'm off the grid, I have my solar panels, blah blah blah. In my mind, that is complete bullshit. What I think in terms of is what is the absolute bare minimum that is needed to survive 2-5 years until the weaklings or the unfortunate in the population die off and things hit bottom. So as far as utilities go, for example, you ideally want to have a clean water source, preferably with a hand pump. You perhaps want to have an outhouse, a root cellar, etc. - the absolute bare minimum as far as maintenance and inputs. If you're in a cold area, get one of those North Face mummy sleeping bags, some thermal underwear and wool socks and go out into your back yard some night when it's zero degrees and get used to sleeping in it before the collapse comes, etc.

Once things hit bottom and begin to get reorganized, there will be a lot of choices, especially for the Milleniels. There will be a substantially hardier, smarter and more competent population left over than the one that exists on average today.

[tim]

Higgenbotham, thanks for your thoughts.

I agree with your post. I have been called a doomer because of similiar statements.

Before anyone dismisses me as being a survivalist nutjob, I didn't believe in any of this until I learned about Generational Dynamics. I am simply attempting to use this theory to benefit my life.

Nobody can say for sure what is going to happen. Yet I believe if you try to prepare for the worst case scenario - a complete collapse back into the stone age - no matter what happens you will be better off then 99% of other people.

Learn about edible wild plants... farmers spend alot of effort to kill "weeds" that are edible and could feed many people. You will be surprised at how much food is out there.

Buy a water filter that will last or learn how to purify water.

As for locations or retreating to rural areas, when the governments fall it will be hell on earth for major cities. I don't want to get too deep into this, anyone can see it for themselves just look at how bad Chicago is getting already.

The best argument for getting to a rural area are the biological threats. Smallpox and other biological agents have been weaponized. Will smallpox be used in WWIII? A crisis war would be the only time someone would make such a mistake.

See the book "The Demon in the Freezer", or don't, if you want to enjoy the good times you have left
http://www.amazon.com/Demon-Freezer-Tru ... 0345466632

On December 9, 1979, smallpox, the most deadly human virus, ceased to exist in nature. After eradication, it was confined to freezers located in just two places on earth: the Center for Disease Control in Atlanta and the Maximum Containment Laboratory in Siberia. But these final samples were not destroyed at that time, and now secret stockpiles of smallpox surely exist. For example, since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, and the subsequent end of its biological weapons program, a sizeable amount of the former Soviet Union's smallpox stockpile remains unaccounted for, leading to fears that the virus has fallen into the hands of nations or terrorist groups willing to use it as a weapon. Scarier yet, some may even be trying to develop a strain that is resistant to vaccines. This disturbing reality is the focus of this fascinating, terrifying, and important book.

I know this isn't a survival forum, and I may have already posted more then anyone here wants to hear. I am hopeful, people can overcome anything and we will rebuild. I don't enjoy reading some of the personal negativity here, like when John says he hopes the first missile hits the town where he lives.

[Trevor]

Higgenbotham, thanks for your thoughts.

I agree with your post. I have been called a doomer because of similiar statements.

Before anyone dismisses me as being a survivalist nutjob, I didn't believe in any of this until I learned about Generational Dynamics. I am simply attempting to use this theory to benefit my life.

Nobody can say for sure what is going to happen. Yet I believe if you try to prepare for the worst case scenario - a complete collapse back into the stone age - no matter what happens you will be better off then 99% of other people.

Learn about edible wild plants... farmers spend alot of effort to kill "weeds" that are edible and could feed many people. You will be surprised at how much food is out there.

Buy a water filter that will last or learn how to purify water.

As for locations or retreating to rural areas, when the governments fall it will be hell on earth for major cities. I don't want to get too deep into this, anyone can see it for themselves just look at how bad Chicago is getting already.

The best argument for getting to a rural area are the biological threats. Smallpox and other biological agents have been weaponized. Will smallpox be used in WWIII? A crisis war would be the only time someone would make such a mistake.

See the book "The Demon in the Freezer", or don't, if you want to enjoy the good times you have left
http://www.amazon.com/Demon-Freezer-Tru ... 0345466632

On December 9, 1979, smallpox, the most deadly human virus, ceased to exist in nature. After eradication, it was confined to freezers located in just two places on earth: the Center for Disease Control in Atlanta and the Maximum Containment Laboratory in Siberia. But these final samples were not destroyed at that time, and now secret stockpiles of smallpox surely exist. For example, since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, and the subsequent end of its biological weapons program, a sizeable amount of the former Soviet Union's smallpox stockpile remains unaccounted for, leading to fears that the virus has fallen into the hands of nations or terrorist groups willing to use it as a weapon. Scarier yet, some may even be trying to develop a strain that is resistant to vaccines. This disturbing reality is the focus of this fascinating, terrifying, and important book.



I know this isn't a survival forum, and I may have already posted more then anyone here wants to hear. I am hopeful, people can overcome anything and we will rebuild. I don't enjoy reading some of the personal negativity here, like when John says he hopes the first missile hits the town where he lives.

I just hope that it's only like the 1930's. As horrible as that was, it is at least survivable. I remember the stories of my grandparents told of that time period of the hardship, how they were forced to come together in order to weather the storm.

Biological warfare... that's a possibility, but not a guarantee. Problem with is that if even something small goes wrong, the pathogens could end up blowing to your side of the line and once it's released, it's going to be impossible to control. To put it in perspective, the 1918 flu reached even the most remote corners of the globe that hadn't seen any outsiders for centuries. With transportation much easier today, if something like that was unleashed, there would be no way to contain it, no way to make sure it doesn't rebound on you.

As for the gloominess... that's just part of the theory. If you know that a world war and financial collapse are coming, it's pretty difficult not to feel gloomy about things.

[Higgenbotham]

I agree the question of being in a city versus being in a rural area was totally settled as of the second half of 2011, whereas it was up in the air before then. When Rome fell, the population of Rome had peaked at 800,000 and fell to less than 25,000 at its low, and most of the other cities in Europe emptied out in a similar way, as discussed here a few months ago. On the other hand, during the Great Depression, the cities were relatively better off because the collapse wasn't that deep. It's pretty clear to me that it's the first kind of collapse we are now looking at, more similar to the fall of the Roman Empire. That may be wrong, of course, but that's the one I am now preparing for personally. One of the tough things about that is most of your family members and acquaintances will not be on board with that idea. Fortunately for me, most of my key family members are completely on board with it, but are perhaps too anxious. This thing is not going to fall next week or even next year, in my opinion. What I keep telling my family is, wait for the financial crash. That will be the first thing and then we can go from there. Now they keep asking me when is it going to crash. My answer is "soon". At least, if it doesn't meet some people's definition of "soon" it'll be a lot sooner relative to everything else that is going to happen. My sister asked me what she should do first. They've already done a lot, by the way, but I said turn your air conditioner off and get used to spending a summer without it, because you may not have that luxury later. She didn't take me up on that idea, but I was totally serious.

[Trevor]

Least your family is willing to listen; mine thinks I'm completely full of crap. It's gotten to the point where I don't even mention it anymore. I'm just doing what limited steps I can and once the collapse begins, you're right, we'll have a better idea of what to do.

As for a new Dark Ages, I'm not convinced of that at the moment, but I do think that we're going to have a serious demographic problem. It's quite possible that so many young men will die in the Clash of Civilizations that the population will end up stalling or even start crashing with progress becoming very slow, similar to what happened to the Soviet Union after WWII.

[aedens]

I do not think our time reference is that far apart, but anyway all people should be smart enough for a crisis window anyway. We know how that will go as we look around the meandering herd. Also I seen another join the light and its variations of the human condition.
obviously behavioral or risk based; that's a case where moderation works in the sense it still isn't obvious. Yet, think about the buyers of value or small cap: most think it's behavioral, because that's why higher return segments dominate; if they truly thought it was a risk-based story, the return premium would be boring (simple trade-off). For those who don't like value, I would guess they find it a risk result. Knowing how to pitch these guys, and show they are being rational, is valuable.

They only choose between the ideologies developed by the intellectual leaders of mankind. But their choice is final and determines the course of events.
If they prefer bad doctrines, nothing can prevent disaster.

due diligence

[Higgenbotham]

Least your family is willing to listen; mine thinks I'm completely full of crap.

Hopefully they will come around after the crash. Nobody in my family was on board in 2007. The way I handled that was to simply say that real estate was going to crash because I knew if I was right that would be the first thing to go. They laughed at me. This went on for 2 or 3 years, just like it has here with the stock market. I kept mentioning every so often that real estate was going to crash and why. Maybe every 3 months or so. When real estate crashed they said, what happens next? I guess what I'm saying is you can be pretty low key about the fact that the stock market will crash if you are right, but maybe not be real specific as to when, just that it will happen.

[Trevor]

Hopefully they will come around after the crash. Nobody in my family was on board in 2007. The way I handled that was to simply say that real estate was going to crash because I knew if I was right that would be the first thing to go. They laughed at me. This went on for 2 or 3 years, just like it has here with the stock market. I kept mentioning every so often that real estate was going to crash and why. Maybe every 3 months or so. When real estate crashed they said, what happens next?

Well, I haven't been here nearly as long as you have, a little under two years. When I mention this, either they ignore me, or it's interpreted in a political light. I'm still trying, especially in light of their fiscal irresponsibility, but I don't expect to get anywhere.

One more piece of advice comes to mind, and I'm not sure if you've mentioned it or not, but it's to get your affairs in order. You can do whatever possible to prepare, but it still doesn't guarantee that you're going to make it, and it seems prudent that if something does happen, to get everything in order so that your loved ones will have something to survive on. I've been thinking about that with my parents and sister. Any ideas on that?