jmparret wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 1:44 pm
The larger question is, will the Chinese "lash out" and instigate war when they have a lot to lose (risk losing) for much less overall gain. That is, why would the leaders of the CCP, or many of the military and families that are prominent, risk their status atop all the other billion people?
The only answer that I see is that they have to distract from MAJOR economic and sociopolitical realities that threaten that status. Which might be happening. Apparently Diego Parilla recently told Hedgeye that China is currently Lehman
squared, not 2.0.
Another view on China by George Friedman. He does not expect war. Much shorter than my last one and it should be listened at 2x speed because Emil talks slowly
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cHR3v8Yydc&t=555s
Joe
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I've mentioned Friedman on here before. John isn't a fan; he thinks Friedman doesn't know what he's talking about. But since you're interested, I'll elaborate on what Friedman believes anyway.
Friedman believes that the 2020s will be defined by a Second Cold War, one that pits the US against China and Russia. In the end the US will win once again, but at a price. As China and Russia fragment, key American allies (particularly Japan, Poland, and Turkey) will begin pursuing their own expansionist policies within the resulting power vacuums, while the US struggles to keep them in check (and thus maintain its own
de facto empire).
The 2030s and 2040s will be defined by the US losing ground across Eurasia. As Japan and Turkey displace American power (in East Asia and the Middle East, respectively), the US will begin treating them not as allies, but as enemies. Meanwhile, the rise of Poland will severely disrupt the balance of power in Europe, and eventually lead to another East-West divide. Except this time, the US and the UK will side with the East (led by Poland), resulting in the West (led by France and Germany) becoming an enemy of the US as well.
Around 2050 or so, the continued fragmentation of the US'
de-facto empire will result in the outbreak of a Third World War, pitting the US, the UK, Poland, India, Korea, and what remains of China against Japan, Turkey, France, Germany, and possibly Mexico. In essence, it will be like a replay of World War II, except this time the Middle East and possibly Mexico are aligned with the Axis. And once again, the Allies would be the victorious party.
The rest of the century will be defined by a Third Cold War, this time pitting the US against Poland and especially Mexico. Regardless of how badly it suffers during World War III, Mexico will make a comeback during the second half of the century, and its geopolitical power will reach unprecedented heights. The rise of Mexican power will dramatically inflame nationalist and irredentist sentiments among Mexican-Americans, especially in the Southwest. By 2100, the US will be facing its greatest internal crisis since the Civil War, with many in the Southwest calling for secession. However, Friedman does not elaborate on what would occur beyond that, as he is not interested in making predictions beyond the 21st century.