Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

One more piece of advice comes to mind, and I'm not sure if you've mentioned it or not, but it's to get your affairs in order. You can do whatever possible to prepare, but it still doesn't guarantee that you're going to make it, and it seems prudent that if something does happen, to get everything in order so that your loved ones will have something to survive on. I've been thinking about that with my parents and sister. Any ideas on that?

Yes, I agree. I think you're in a tough spot because the first thing that comes to mind that they might need down the road if you don't make it is food storage and maybe some cash and/or precious metal. Not now, but say you were shipped off to war and didn't come back. But it would seem to me that if you started storing food in your home that you would be ridiculed by them, or they would think you are even crazier than they already think you are. And if you're shipped off to war, you won't be around to help as things evolve and maybe they come on board with how you are thinking later. I think what I would do is buy some gold or silver and put it in a safe deposit box or in a safe at home. Perhaps the best way to do it might be to get a relatively inexpensive combination filing cabinet/safe and put it in there, then give them the key and combination. If you are gone and they get desperate, they will likely find what they need.

[Trevor]

Yes, I agree. I think you're in a tough spot because the first thing that comes to mind that they might need down the road if you don't make it is food storage and maybe some cash and/or precious metal. Not now, but say you were shipped off to war and didn't come back. But it would seem to me that if you started storing food in your home that you would be ridiculed by them, or they would think you are even crazier than they already think you are. And if you're shipped off to war, you won't be around to help as things evolve and maybe they come on board with how you are thinking later. I think what I would do is buy some gold or silver and put it in a safe deposit box or in a safe at home. Perhaps the best way to do it might be to get a relatively inexpensive combination filing cabinet/safe and put it in there, then give them the key and combination. If you are gone and they get desperate, they will likely find what they need.

Thanks for the advice; I actually don't have that much in the way of money, since all I have is SSI and a part-time job, neither of which are going to last in the long term. Nevertheless, I want to do as much as I can, their bad spending habits notwithstanding. Currently, I'm keeping my money in a small bank and watching very carefully, ready to remove it. I've sometimes thought about withdrawing it all right now, but again, they already think I'm nuts when I talk about this.

One more idea I thought of when it comes to survival: storing seeds. We have a very long growing season here. Pumpkin seeds can last years and are extremely productive; some are already growing their own food, a trend I would expect to continue.

[aedens]

http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=51293

We are losing another good man

[aedens]

I have no problem with the orderly liquidation of failed banks. However, I have a big problem when governments intervene by tampering with the priority of the capital structure and violating the cardinal principle of capitalism to protect private property rights from arbitrary confiscation. In a normal liquidation of a bank the bond and equity holders would be chopped before the deposit holders. Moreover, I have no use for false promises that are reneged on arbitrarily. Deposit protection in Europe is now obviously a capricious farce. This is what happens when you allow bailout musketeers to interfere with markets. Everything becomes a contortion. Just like TARP and AIG and yadda yadda are one big fucking contortion of moral hazard. The notion that German taxpayers are bailing out yogurt farmers is another convenient propaganda tactic. The ones who are being bailed out are the stupid core financial insitutions that pissed all their muppet money searching for yield. They are quite efficaciously hiding behind their Muttis skirt. Finally, I would like to point out that the minute you accept guilt by association or ethnic slander to form the main premise for justifying exceptions to the rule of law, you are well on your way to repeating what can only end in a burnt out bunker in Berlin. 7

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator"

16 If you obey the commandments of the LORD your God which I command you this day, by loving the LORD your God, by walking in his ways, and by keeping his commandments and his statutes and his ordinances, then you shall live and multiply, and the LORD your God will bless you in the land which you are entering to take possession of it.
17 But if your heart turns away, and you will not hear, but are drawn away to worship other gods and serve them,
18 I declare to you this day, that you shall perish; you shall not live long in the land which you are going over the Jordan to enter and possess.
19 I call heaven and earth to witness against you this day, that I have set before you life and death, blessing and curse; therefore choose life, that you and your descendants may live,
20 loving the LORD your God, obeying his voice, and cleaving to him; for that means life to you and length of days, that you may dwell in the land which the LORD swore to your fathers, to Abraham, to Isaac, and to Jacob, to give them."

[aedens]

Cyprus map Size: 9250 sq km - 3500 sq miles - Cyprus population: 871,036.

5.4 billion from acounts was voted no.... meanwhile......wake up kids....

Role as an energy hub: The eastern Mediterranean is home to vast reserves of natural gas. Noble Energy has already got promising results from the Leviathan gas field, off the coast of Israel (and edging into an area claimed by Lebanon), and is now drilling in the waters just south of Cyprus. Hence plenty of optimistic talk at the conference of co-operation between Cyprus and Israel to construct LNG terminals or a pipeline to transmit gas to energy-hungry Europe in competition with the network of pipelines, actual or proposed, from Russia and central Asia. Indeed, Noble apparently reckons a pipeline could be in operation as soon as 2014 or 2015. Surveys suggest more than 100 trillion cubic feet (2.831 trillion cubic metres) of reserves lie untapped in the eastern Mediterranean basin between Cyprus and Israel

[vincecate]

Now, because of what happened in Europe and the US in the second half of 2011, and the lack of proactive response by anybody, it's my assumption that the collapse will be very deep, like about an order of magnitude worse than the Great Depression. So we know that much. That has several obvious implications as far as the end point. It means all central governments are going to collapse and be replaced by local governments. It means that the monetary system is going to completely collapse and all currencties are going to end up worthless.

If the US central government collapses you still have the state governments. To me "local government" sounds smaller than state level. Since states have police and courts you need not get anarchy. Also, most state governments have much closer to balanced budgets and have a better chance to stay in operation. However, a large fraction of the population is used to getting money from the central government, so if that stops there will be huge trouble. On the other hand, not having to pay federal taxes will mean there is more money staying in productive hands.

Right now much of the periphery is paying an inflation tax to the US. Getting rid of this inflation tax is like getting rid of a leach, they should be better off eventually. The US on the other hand won't be able to print money and get stuff from the rest of the world, so they will be far worse off. The US could well be an order of magnitude worse than the Great Depression if the US dollar fails (which I expect) but some parts of the world won't be so bad off. For example, I would not expect China to be in nearly so much trouble when the dollar fails.

[Higgenbotham]

If the US central government collapses you still have the state governments. To me "local government" sounds smaller than state level. Since states have police and courts you need not get anarchy. Also, most state governments have much closer to balanced budgets and have a better chance to stay in operation. However, a large fraction of the population is used to getting money from the central government, so if that stops there will be huge trouble. On the other hand, not having to pay federal taxes will mean there is more money staying in productive hands.

Right now much of the periphery is paying an inflation tax to the US. Getting rid of this inflation tax is like getting rid of a leach, they should be better off eventually. The US on the other hand won't be able to print money and get stuff from the rest of the world, so they will be far worse off. The US could well be an order of magnitude worse than the Great Depression if the US dollar fails (which I expect) but some parts of the world won't be so bad off. For example, I would not expect China to be in nearly so much trouble when the dollar fails.

When making the post, I didn't give a lot of thought to how many state governments will survive, but I am pretty sure the US Federal government either won't or will be trimmed back to extremely limited scope. It seems highly likely that many state governments will survive, especially if the state government is well run, has a balanced budget, and the governor is popular. Another issue that is related is the fact that any state without a decaying urban center will be better off and that was one of my thoughts about North Dakota. Also, any state that sends more tax money to the Feds than they get back should be better off on net, eventually. The Tax Foundation lists those kinds of details.

I also agree that when the US federal government collapses, conditions will improve in many areas of the world, and they will also improve in many rural areas of the US that are still productive, though that should come more slowly. It's not all bad for sure. Some of the points you made were just made also by Paul Craig Roberts on King World News within the past week. He said something to the effect that the US doesn't even make its own shoes anymore and when the dollar collapses that's going to be a huge problem. There used to be a shoe factory in my town that got shut down and moved overseas around 1990. 23 years is too long to be able to quickly regain that production in my opinion.

[aedens]

Once you close a sector the production base and then knowledge collapses. Some times on monolopy purposes of intent and events to few regard in history. On another note we are watching as this time around the unprecedented efforts to stimulate the domestic economy have left many uninformed investors blind to the weakness that is being experienced in what is seen an important engine of global growth, emerging markets." Every market cycle is different, with leading divergences by copper prices lasting anywhere from a couple of months to several years. The last time the divergence between copper prices and the S&P 500 was as long lasting as the current cycle was prior to the S&P's 2007 price top. The tower of babble is worshipping the policy of the FED. The disconnect is staggering now. We are watching semi conductors also.

[John]

I think it's possible that we'll enter a new dark age, but I believe
that there are other scenarios that are more likely.

I'm not used to being in the role of the optimist, here are some
other points to be made:

• Even though we've all been critical of the huge fiscal and monetary
  programs, they have given businesses and individuals time to build
  cash positions, that will help in a deflationary spiral.
• The "dark age" concepts implies that we'll be going back to donkey
  carts. Technology does not reverse. There will be plenty of cars and
  trucks that will still be working.
• We can expect China's missiles to attack perhaps a dozen or more
  cities. However, there is no chance that I can see of a credible
  Chinese land invasion, so the country will continue to operate.
• It's been reported that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
  has ordered huge numbers of bullets and weapons. This has promoted
  speculation about what they have in mind. But one possibility is that
  if chaos breaks out somewhere, DHS might intervene and restore order.
• I've speculated in the past that there is a fault line between
  Latinos and "Yankees." That's true, but Latinos won't be happy about
  a Chinese attack either, especially the huge number of of them living
  on the West coast, and so the Latin-American community will probably
  unite with Americans against the Chinese.
• By contrast, I would expect China to have a huge civil war.
• America has not had any major internal insurrections since the
  Civil War. There will undoubtedly be local violence, but overall,
  the American culture will do well and unite against a common
  enemy.

To prepare for the future, there's no way to predict with certainty
where the missiles will land, though I would assume that central
Kansas is safer than Los Angeles.

However, in preparing for the future, you ought to look beyond the war,
and make plans under the assumption that you will survive to the
2020s. This means the following:

• There are obvious survivalist things you can do for now: Keep food,
  water and candles around, for example.
• Also, preserve your assets, possibly in your mattress.
• Use every spare minute you have to do something useful to improve
  your skills. (You can use me as an example, where I developed
  Generational Dynamics during times of unemployment.) You can look
  for projects in your local communities, or online.
• Do not fall in with the current culture of fraud and extortion.
  Become a paragon of honesty, morals and ethics.

So, if there's a "dark age," then there's a dark age, and you can't
do anything about it.

It's fine to prepare for the worst case scenario, but I believe that
you would be better off assuming a more optimistic scenario, so that
you'll be prepared if the worst DOESN'T happen.

[Higgenbotham]

It's fine to prepare for the worst case scenario, but I believe that
you would be better off assuming a more optimistic scenario, so that
you'll be prepared if the worst DOESN'T happen.

I think this advice is warranted at this time.

For one thing, there is no clear concrete evidence that has surfaced to indicate that a dark age is coming. I'm making a projection based on early signs that may or may not show up as clear evidence. The reason older people make projections is they have assets and obligations they've built up over time, whereas younger people have more flexibility and don't need to think so far ahead.

As long as I can remember there have been people saying the financial system is going to collapse and my father, who is knowledgeable in these matters, told me long ago that in 1980 the financial system almost collapsed. I wasn't aware of what was going on at that time, but the fact is that it didn't collapse. I've heard the same thing said about the early 1990s by people who would be considered even more knowledgeable (Swiss bankers). I need to have an opinion on that now whereas someone who is 20 doesn't need to, and when I was 20 I had no opinion and was doing all the things normal 20 year olds were doing, like going to college and working summer jobs.

The next thought I would bring up is the subject of human psychology. When someone has an opinion or a projection that they have developed over time, like that the stock market is going to crash, and that opinion or projection doesn't turn out as predicted, there are often 2 responses. The first and more usual response is for the person to become more quiet and then later, if it starts to pan out, to then become very excited and vocal about it, and engage in a lot of chest beating as I call it, which we see on the Internet all the time. The second and more unusual response, which is the response I am making, is when my forecast of a stock market crash did not come to pass, was to make an even more extreme forecast, as in now that I've been wrong about this crash, now we're really gonna have a whopper! it's gonna be a dark age! So I would say just be aware that people can fall into mental traps and even be aware that these mental traps exist and still not be able to recognize that they are in one.

The final point I would make is that if a dark age is really going to happen, then it might make sense to have a discussion about what the first concrete evidence of such a thing would be, what that might specifically look like, and what might also be concrete evidence that indicates that such a thing is not occurring. In my mind I've seen enough but I don't think it would hurt for most people to wait until they see more with the assumption that they will proceed normally or just devote limited time until more evidence surfaces.