Financial topics

[vincecate]

A dark age is an extended period of significantly reduced integration, organisation and cohesion. (From an individual’s perspective, social bonds may become more intense in a dark age. However, overall cohesion is reduced because the social network extends much less far.

Does the fall of the USSR fit this definition?

[tim]

Reminds me of "A Study of Our Decline" by Philip Atkinson.

Certainly makes a strong point for a coming Dark Age.
http://www.ourcivilisation.com/

http://www.ourcivilisation.com/whycare.htm

The General Impact Of The Decline Of A Civilization
From 'A Study Of Our Decline' by P Atkinson (9/2/2011)
When a civilization declines it goes into reverse with all the wealth, power and wisdom realised by its rise being discarded at an ever increasing rate until dissolution. The people will discover that:

1. The quality of goods and services falls as the cost increases; and this corruption extends into every aspect of their existence, from the faltering quality of bread to the growing inconstancy of love.

2. The essential requirements of: —

i. Peace will be disturbed by increasing interruptions of:
Noise

Indecency (see f-word and loss of shame)

Violence from within and from without the community.

ii. Order will be increasingly eroded

Tyranny and injustice will reign as delusion triumphs and the community dissolves into impotence. But this will never be generally recognized because the source of the disease is the waning of citizens' comprehension. A decay made palpable by the disappearance of plain speaking.

Such a society is no longer engaged in creating a human heaven on earth, but is earnestly constructing the very opposite where:

• The worst people get rewarded while the best get penalized.

• The education system can only spread delusion.

• The bureaucracy becomes a liability instead of an asset.

• The courts must promote injustice.

However this will always be denied because truth will be vanquished by lies.

The Decline Of A Civilization:The Collapse Of Sanity
From 'A Study Of Our Decline' by P Atkinson (November 2011)
A Change From Sensible To Senseless
A civilization is a shared understanding, and the decline of a civilization is the decay of this communal understanding from sensible to senseless. A community maintains its understanding by passing its traditions from generation to generation. That is, each generation is charged with rearing its progeny as dutiful (unselfish) citizens who revere the beliefs, hence the manners, customs and laws, which are the tradition of their parents. When this process fails then the community stops maintaining, but starts to corrupt, tradition: that is, it starts to discard or reverse the manners, customs and laws, so they cease to be a duty but become an indulgence.

Corruption Progresses a Generation at a Time
The corruption of tradition progresses a generation at a time, with each succeeding wave of offspring corrupting more tradition, which in turn means showing less restraint and thus less understanding than the last generation.

Becoming Increasingly Silly
As previous restraints are discarded, citizens find themselves less able to resist their private impulses. With a reduced need to control their urges they become more susceptible to the temptations of conceit, vanity, envy, sloth, rage, lust, greed and fear; losing not only the ability to control their actions but their thoughts. Hence with each successive generation the character of the citizens becomes increasing uncontrolled, irresolute and silly.

Or as the ancient Roman poet Horace (BC 65-8) said:

"Our parents, worse than our grandparents, gave birth to us who are worse than they,
and we shall in our turn bear offspring still more evil."
Increasingly Vulnerable To Attack
And the result is a community growing ever more demented and impotent —senile; becoming increasingly unable to resist attacks by:

Vermin — Citizens are increasingly hampered in their defence against attacks on their property or person by creatures such as Magpies, Crows, Snakes, Kangaroos, Feral Pigs, Dingos and Feral Dogs. Fruit Bats can destroy orchards, and by inflicting their noise, smell, droppings and threat of deadly Hendra and Lassa virus, ruin businesses and lives with impunity as no defence is allowed.
Diseases — as development of life saving drugs is abandoned
Lunatics — who destroy decency
Criminals — who destroy justice, hence order
Barbarians — who must eventually conquer the civilization

http://www.ourcivilisation.com/nature/chap11.htm

Over the last ten thousand years humanity has changed from an extended family of grunting wild animals to a society of immense power and understanding. This huge improvement is not the result of any physical change to the species, but to the evolution of communal intelligence—that universal perception allowed by the set of values common to each member of the community; that is, the development and enhancement of a single intelligence superior to and out-lasting those of its individual members.

By having the initial mental ability to develop tools we launched ourselves onto an ever-improving spiral. Their use reduced the effort demanded by survival and increased the time available for reflection. Which in turn allowed better tools, and more free time.

To a social animal like man, the invention of language was an immense improvement which exploded the power of groups. The accuracy allowed in communications broke the barrier posed by grunts and gestures. The invention is so significant that the development of infants is measured by this ability.

Speech was further enhanced by invention of a written version. Communal memory was extended indefinitely; it no longer depended upon individuals passing it by word of mouth. Laws could be set down, owner title was created, arithmetic could be developed, accuracy could be maintained, allowing communities to become ever more complex and powerful.

The growing sophistication of human societies was reflected in their structure. The family/tribe formed nations, villages became towns, towns became cities, and cities became civilizations. All developments giving greater power and comfort to the people, and all based upon growing shared understanding —for this is the source of our power. Every technical innovation or improvement first occurs in the mind of the community, before it becomes a reality. Roads, schools, governments, everything we use, are merely the solid results of the thoughts of the society.

Unfortunately the rise of comprehension has not been steady; often it has regressed. Communities have gained enlightenment, thrived, faltered, and then disintegrated into ignorance and misery. The rise and fall of civilizations is the blooming then shrivelling of group intelligence, for they are one and the same. That thing we call civilization is the tangible expression of a society's intelligence; what is decaying in our community is our mental powers; as individuals, as groups, as communities, we are losing the ability to think clearly. Naturally as our perception decays so does the effectiveness of our administration and the impact of our technology — our strength and understanding. Discovering why a civilization rises and falls, is learning how a society gains then loses comprehension.

[Higgenbotham]

A dark age is an extended period of significantly reduced integration, organisation and cohesion. (From an individual’s perspective, social bonds may become more intense in a dark age. However, overall cohesion is reduced because the social network extends much less far.

Does the fall of the USSR fit this definition?

By my definition no because the US and Western Europe. as the dominant hegemonic powers were able to lift the former USSR up and get it back on its feet. The dark age will occur when the West declines and collapses similarly to the USSR and there is no greater power to lift it back up.

When I said "regional" above, my thought was that sometimes in history hegemonic powers like the Romans didn't have global reach and were separated from part of world civilization, but that's no longer true.

[Higgenbotham]

Reminds me of "A Study of Our Decline" by Philip Atkinson.

There certainly is a lot of common ground there.

This should take you to some links that have Marc Widdowson's full 416 page book and maybe you can find something that's downloadable. I downloaded it from his site as a free pdf file years ago but it seems it's no longer available that way. I thought he did good work. I have my own ideas about what a dark age is as posted in that thread, but thought it useful to post Marc's definition, as I consider him the true expert on dark ages based on what I have read.

http://www.google.com/#hl=en&sclient=ps ... 00&bih=398

[aedens]

Reading from the statist gosplans to cleptocratic meritocracy verbiage as we have it amazes me we have time to read the liberal consensus and that science only rediscovered what they new in 3113 B.C. on a few basic topics lately. I was conversing with my daughters bone marrow T cells intern project as they counted the cells with lasers and what we discussed was her benefactor conveyed he can only find time to have some academics who separated themselves from the grind to sort out the 99 sheep who really do not care to progress. Other contract projects he wishes to invest time with have been filtered for caring people as we noted before. Today we see a few who understand why, and who we can take more time to invest in. The hard work can pay off for those who have the patience. As for me today I review my new contract offer and confidential information and invention assignment agreement. As you know how I am hard on the edges to the Chinese, in jest on my part today consider it already hacked what ever we did anyway at some levels already noted here. Sometimes you have to have humor to discover they do not get it since irony is lost to those for many reasons since we do not put those ideas on paper at times until it warrants further action.

[John]

> The next thought I would bring up is the subject of human
> psychology. When someone has an opinion or a projection that they
> have developed over time, like that the stock market is going to
> crash, and that opinion or projection doesn't turn out as
> predicted, there are often 2 responses. The first and more usual
> response is for the person to become more quiet and then later, if
> it starts to pan out, to then become very excited and vocal about
> it, and engage in a lot of chest beating as I call it, which we
> see on the Internet all the time. The second and more unusual
> response, which is the response I am making, is when my forecast
> of a stock market crash did not come to pass, was to make an even
> more extreme forecast, as in now that I've been wrong about this
> crash, now we're really gonna have a whopper! it's gonna be a dark
> age! So I would say just be aware that people can fall into mental
> traps and even be aware that these mental traps exist and still
> not be able to recognize that they are in one.

This gets into the subject of "cognitive dissonance," which is usually
defined as the mental problems that occur when the mind holds two
conflicting beliefs at once. I don't like this definition, because
all of the examples that are usually given are strongly held beliefs
that are contradicted by actual events in real life. For example, a
group of people believe that Jesus Christ will return on July 1, and
that true believers will go to heaven, and the rest will die. They
give their possessions away, and gather on a mountaintop, waiting for
the return. July 2 comes, and they're still on the mountaintop,
waiting. At that point, they don't abandon their previous beliefs,
but they adapt them -- they go out and become proselytizers, where
previously they had kept their beliefs secret, and they claim that God
has decided to give the world one more chance.

After a generational Crisis era end, everyone is pretty much united
and realistic about how the world works. Decades later, when the next
crisis era begins, there are opposing political camps that hold
ideologies as strong as those who gather on the mountaintop. They
invest in stocks or make other personal life commitments based on
their ideological beliefs. As the "regeneracy" begins, all of these
ideological beliefs are challenged, causing cognitive dissonance. The
behaviors then are to continue to hold the previous beliefs, but to
adapt them, and this often means declaring war.

[aedens]

something on the order of a 20% crash in 10 minutes, but the market doesn't recover
I was kicking that around to consider the capital controls in percentages of the problem that capital can move as in actual
allowed flows today as Ben alluded to and the lack of participation in the asian front as noted back some. Given the condition of
actors in regional conflicts and consumer sentiment to the euro issues how did it manage to assert stability yesterday even on the daxx?
Is it me or actual apathethic enabling, since at times the market just cannot even pretend to care in its current rendition of moral certitude.
Point being as we note many times nobody is ever in control so yes cargo cult values rules supreme for some and the millisecond
hunter seeker algo's buffer out the rest.

Yet the best reading are the ones who literally pushed the text book into the trash since fortunately another had found a better solution.
I do not remember the chaps name but after twenty five years or so Harvard Medical admitted he was correct. I was impressed he went
back as humble as he left as it was conveyed from a researcher from another facility. Group think can be a black hole cult as you conveyed
John on a few projects. Many reasons and solutions are available we have found to date and constructive dialogs exist since the Jack Welsh
fire that guy since he does speak our equity cult persona. On the Financial side we trade our money since when you have ideas some work
better then others, and others at times better than yours. The herd does have traits and other fasinating attributes at times.
Since we left off here are 1555 to 1560 on the technical thoughts to 1615 and for me the 1600 mental wall of worry for some
about things we opine as investor to behavior science dynamics to encylical brain chemistry for the fun of it and what the hell is the VIX
up to anyways. As for the one more chance since the bricks are fallen down, but we will build with hewn stones: the sycomores are cut down, but
we will change them into cedars as to consider the nine warning until the reason crowd vanished as Isaiah 9:10 warned and conveyed until it happened.
As we are to date it is just the facts that get in the way today.

[John]

*** Cognitive Dissonance and the Mideast Roadmap to Peace

We're close to a very important ten-year anniversary that nobody is
going to remember but me: On May 1, it's the tenth anniversary of
President George Bush's "Mideast Roadmap to Peace." I remember it
because I wrote my first major Generational Dynamics prediction at
that time, explaining why the Roadmap could not succeed.

** Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 10.i.may01

Listening to President Obama in Jerusalem yesterday and in
Ramallah today, it might as well have been George W. Bush.
I don't believe that there was a single thing that I heard that
was substantively different from anything that I would have heard
if Bush were still President.

In particular, Obama had a major reversal in rhetoric regarding
settlements. In the past, he's called for an end to West
Bank settlements. Today, he said only that settlements were an
area of disagreement that would be solved only when the core
issues were resolved -- and the core issues were creating a
contiguous state of Palestine, and security for Israel.

In fact, I heard a couple of Palestinian commentators say that
President Obama was worse than President Bush because Obama
had raised everyone's hopes with the Cairo speech in 2009, but
done nothing since then.

Obama made numerous absurd promises when he was running in 2008. He
said, "This was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow
and our planet began to heal." He would be guided by facts, not like
President Bush, who was guided by ideology and ignored facts. He
would cure global warming, close Guantanamo, become friendly with Iran
and North Korea, bring a two-state solution to Palestinians and
Israelis, beat the Taliban and al-Qaeda, end the financial crisis,
reflate the real estate and stock market bubbles and provide universal
health care. He has not yet achieved a single one of these
objectives, and many of them are total failures.

I was not critical of Obama during the 2008 campaign, because I
assumed that his promises were the usual fatuous political nonsense,
and I expected him to become more sensible once the election ended,
assuming he won. But I was shocked when he doubled down on his
predictions after he won. What this showed was that he actually
believed the absurd promises he was making.

This would be an example of cognitive dissonance. Obama committed
himself to all of these objectives, and he's succeeded with none of
them. His current visit to the Mideast represents a total collapse of
any semblance of his Mideast promises, and a complete return to
President Bush's position and rhetoric.

There is one major example left: Obamacare. I condemned this proposal
when it was first made because it was a repeat of President Nixon's
wage-price controls, which were an economic disaster. Nixon's
wage-price controls were supposed to reduce inflation, but instead
inflation surged to historically high levels under the controls.
Obamacare was supposed to reduce health care costs, but instead health
care costs are already surging to historically high levels. Obamacare
is shaping up to be as much of an economic disaster as Nixon's
wage-price controls. Obama is thoroughly committed to seeing
Obamacare implemented. The cognitive dissonance pattern indicates
that he will do anything that he has the power to do to force
Obamacare to be implemented.

I've said hundreds of times that it's a basic principle of
Generational Dynamics that great events of history are not determined
by politicians or political policy or ideology. They're determined
by generational trends that are completely out of control of
politicians. The generational trends that I've been writing about
for years are all coming to pass, and there's nothing that Barack
Obama or any other politician can do to stop them.

[aedens]

I have to agree John but toss the hope is all we have left to relent the condition as we say.

I was reading the back drop news to Cyprus and the amount, plus the time frame to this contest.

Plan C from tylers notes is noting Cyprus will form an investment fund to raise the capital needed to payoff their EU overlords. This fund will be collateralized by state assets, possibly including natural gas revenues, church property, and social security fund reserves. Though some form of deposit tax was 'apparently' not ruled out, it seems the next last best hope for Cyprus is begging the Russians to extend a loan and begging the world to fund more debt from a nation about to see huge capital outflows.

This Kind of action they painted themselves into since also reported was inaction from last summer on the debt issue if the
kick the can desease which is to borrow the phrase also a harbinger step two of the list of nine repeated actions of history
in the Generational Dynamic of human action.

zh: Cyprus initially request assistance last summer. However, because the president at the time refused to consider privatization and that the creditors wanted to do their own analysis of Cyprus' banking system even though the OECD had previously said that Cyprus has met the 40 EU directives against money laundering. In November, a German study found that more than 21 bln euros of Russian and Middle East funds had found a home in the Cyprus haven.
Cyprus banks have not been good guardians of those foreign or domestic deposits. With roughly 50% of their deposits they bought Greek bonds. This was a huge leveraged carry trade that collapsed.

http://www.cybc.com.cy/en/index.php/tv?id=91

[Reality Check]

Plan C from tylers notes is noting Cyprus will form an investment fund to raise the capital needed to payoff their EU overlords.

I am missing something here, what exactly are they going to be paying off to the EU, and why would they ?

They are broke. Either the EU bails them out, or it does not. What is the loan Cyprus would be paying back and why would they?

France and Britain are not going to nuke Cyprus if they do not pay up. Europe is not going to invade and occupy the island.

The Genie is out of the bottle. The banks in Cyprus are bankrupt, everyone says so, the President of Cyprus said so when he was trying to get a vote, the banks are closed, if they ever open again, people will want their money out immediately, either the banks of the EU back them 100%, or they are history, one way or another.

Russia would be bailing out the EU, not Cyprus.

Why would they want to ?

Russia might buy oil and gas rights and receive long term navy and ground troop basing rights to protect those oil and gas rights, that might happen, but not bailing out the EU banking system with Russian investment, that is a very bad investment for Russia, or anyone else. Either the EU bails out the portion of the EU banking system located in Cyprus, or they do not. One way the banking system in Cyprus continues to function as a banking system using the Euro as a currency, otherwise it does not.