Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

** 6-Feb-2019 How do you prepare for disaster, but you don't know when it's coming?

It's gotten to the point where a lot of people know that there's
going to be a major financial crash because of the unstoppable
US government debt.

However, there was an exchange on tv (paraphrasing):

Q: Do you think that the market will keep going up?

A: A financial crash is inevitable because of US debt.

Q: So what are you saying -- that just because there will be
a financial crash in five or ten years, people should stop buying
stocks?

A: You should be a stock picker, and invest in value stocks
with a low price/earnings ratio.

What's funny about this is because here's a person who actually
doesn't believe that the stock market will go up forever, but still
manages to find a way to provide massive information.

Analysts on tv only refer to price/earnings ratios based on "forward
earnings," which are made-up numbers by a company's PR department.
The only consistent and comparable p/e ratios are based on "trailing
earnings."


** 28-Aug-15 World View -- Explanation of Price/Earnings ratio and Stock Valuations
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e150828



However, the rest of this mini-conversation illustrates another problem.
We know that a financial crash is coming, and we know that a war
is coming with China. But we don't know whether it will be
tomorrow, next week, next year, or after that.

I always use a couple of metaphors in this situation.

One is the pressure cooker that will explode at some time, but
you don't know when.

The other is "the straw that breaks the camel's back" -- you know
that the camel's back has to break if you keep piling on straw,
but you can't predict which one



So what do you do? The person from Seoul who visited this forum
recently was wondering how he knows when to flee. If he leaves right
away, then Seoul might be a peace for a year. But if he waits until
the North actually attacks, then all the planes will be booked up.

So in terms of advising people what to do, what should people do in
these situations?

If North Korea attacked South Korea and was subsequently repulsed they would probably sue for peace in order to avoid the western counterattack.

This is interesting:

https://soranews24.com/2019/02/01/film- ... in-russia/

The article is about a movie being made about a love story during the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905.

The basis of the movie is how well Russian POW's were treated by the Japanese:

"The Russo-Japanese War, which took place from 1904 to 1905, came at a time when Japan was trying to turn itself into a “modern” nation, and during the war, Japan made efforts to treat Russian POWs humanely. Nearly 70,000 Russian POWs were reportedly brought to Japan during this time and placed in close to 30 camps across Japan.

The city of Matsuyama, where Yui and Sorokin’s story takes place, is actually where the first of such Russian POW camps was established in Japan, and while the love story is fiction, it is indeed historically true that the prisoners there were treated relatively well. The Russian prisoners received decent food and were allowed a good amount of freedom including taking baths in hot springs or buying alcohol at local stores. They were also provided at times with entertainment such as sumo wrestling and bicycle racing and, in some cases, educational opportunities as well. As a result, there was significant interaction between the Russian prisoners and the local population of Matsuyama, and the city even experienced a small economic boom during the period."



Contrast this to the treatment of POW's by Japan in WWII. Generational differences?

To answer my own question, I looked up the Country Studies page for Japan on the GD site.

Sure enough, the Russo-Japanese war was between the two Generational Crisis wars for Japan.

It would be interesting to see if treatment of POW's in Generational Crisis wars vs. non-Crisis wars is different for all other countries.

Daily Reader wrote:To answer my own question, I looked up the Country Studies page for Japan on the GD site.

Sure enough, the Russo-Japanese war was between the two Generational Crisis wars for Japan.

It would be interesting to see if treatment of POW's in Generational Crisis wars vs. non-Crisis wars is different for all other countries.

I disagree the concept of atrocities being accepted in Crisis wars and Not accepted in Non-Crisis wars fails to hold water. During the Sino-vietnamese war in 1979, Chinese forces reportedly committed numerous atrocities against the vietnamese, yet China was no where near a 4T. The Japanese while they treated the Russian POWs well in 1904-05 did carry out massacres in several Chinese cities that happened to be fought over by Japan and Russia. The Germans massacred the herero in herero war in africa of 1904-1907. The italians commited ethnic cleansing in libya in the post-WW1 periods. Even the US massacred large amounts of filipinos during the Philippine-American war post-1898.

https://freedomforvietnam.wordpress.com ... r-part-ii/

Navigator wrote: > Modern war really begins with the American Civil War. This is the
> first war in which the both sides drafted the masses into their
> armies to expand them and then refill the ranks. They had to
> "refill the ranks" due to the massive casualties they suffered in
> every campaign and battle. Both sides were initially shocked and
> mortified at how incredibly high the losses were during major
> battles.

> The same thing happened again during the World Wars. At the start
> of World War One, the casualty rates were far higher than anyone
> expected. And by now it was accepted practice by all countries
> that when you are in a major war that you draft everyone possible
> into the Armed Forces. In both eras, leaders and common people
> alike were shocked at the numbers of dead and wounded. Nothing in
> their prior experience had prepared them for what actually
> happened. In both eras this was due to advances in technology
> that made it much easier and more efficient to kill human beings.

> In the American Civil War, this was due to rifled bullets. Prior
> to that war, a musket ball had only a remote chance of hitting
> someone, so armies of old packed together in tight formations so
> some musket balls would actually hit the enemy. With rifled
> bullets, the bullets trajectory was no longer random, and an aimed
> shot could accurately hit something almost as far away as you
> could see. Unfortunately, the armies still continued to use tight
> formations, as this is what armies then were taught to do. It
> wasn't uncommon in the war for units to take 50% (or more)
> casualties in a single day long battle.

> In the World Wars, machine guns, rapid fire artillery, then tanks
> and airplanes added new levels of lethality to the battlefield.
> Again, no one was really prepared for what the new technology
> could do. And again, casualty rates were so high that the wars,
> in the end, were decided by who ran out of replacement Soldiers
> first.

This is great information. One thing that I would add that few people
think about is the effect of child mortality.



The child mortality rate in 1870 was about 43%. By WW II it was under
25%. If you do the math, you get that there are a lot more young men
to serve as cannon fodder, simply because they don't die as children.

Child mortality today is down to 4.3%, which is one-tenth the rate at
the time of the civil war. So there are ten times as many surviving
kids per the same population size, ready to be the greatest generation
and turn into dead bodies on the battlefield.

Navigator wrote: > The best way to avoid being drafted into the military as an
> infantry replacement is to already be in or associated with the
> military. Have a military skill OTHER than being a foot soldier.
> Join the Reserve Forces and learn how to work radios or repair
> trucks for example. It is a decent way to pay for college and
> learn a backup trade skill. And it will most probably keep you
> from being an infantry replacement when they start drafting people
> off of the streets.

This is certainly good advice. Even if you have a handicap and couldn't
be drafted, it's always good to have some saleable skills.

Also, China had a one child per family policy for 25-30 years, so there are millions more young men in China than women. China will be using these young men in the next war to serve their country.

There are times that I'm amazed that WWIII hasn't broken out already, with all the flash points. I suppose that's a good sign, but the trends continue to go in that direction; they aren't reversing.

And I'm noticing a lot of people making claims that are almost word-for-word what was said before Pearl Harbor. It's generally along the lines of: "China would never dare attack us, and even if they did, we're so powerful that we could crush them easily." Change a few of the words around, and substitute Japan for China.

Right now, our most vulnerable area is cyberattack. We're starting to catch on to what Chinese companies, but how many electronics that they've already sold to us have these backdoors? Few are even willing to ask the question, let alone do an investigation. We'd rather become hysterical over Trump's latest tweet.

Trevor wrote:There are times that I'm amazed that WWIII hasn't broken out already, with all the flash points. I suppose that's a good sign, but the trends continue to go in that direction; they aren't reversing.

And I'm noticing a lot of people making claims that are almost word-for-word what was said before Pearl Harbor. It's generally along the lines of: "China would never dare attack us, and even if they did, we're so powerful that we could crush them easily." Change a few of the words around, and substitute Japan for China.

Right now, our most vulnerable area is cyberattack. We're starting to catch on to what Chinese companies, but how many electronics that they've already sold to us have these backdoors? Few are even willing to ask the question, let alone do an investigation. We'd rather become hysterical over Trump's latest tweet.

The seventh fleet is not that important relative to the rest of the navy. Even if they succeed in destroying the carrier battle group in battle rendering the carrier obsolete like the battleship was rendered obsolete at pearl harbor: We would still have 12 more carrier battle groups available for use. I mentioned the seventh fleet carrier because that is the only one located in the western pacific.

John wrote:** 6-Feb-2019 How should people prepare? How should America prepare?

I believe that I know, as much as is possible, what's going to happen
in terms of international events. Generational Dynamics has provided
a great deal of information that isn't available anywhere else.

Now I'd like to go one step further, and ask people to post their
suggestions for how to prepare for what we now know is coming.

We're headed for total war with China -- perhaps next week, perhaps in
ten years. In addition, I've posted Genertational Dynamics predictions
for many countries around the world.

How should people prepare, and how should America prepare?

I'm looking for suggestions that go beyond the obvious things like
"increase the defense budget."

On the international level, the mainstream media and many politicians
have been completely baffled by Trump's policies, and I've written
numerous articles explaining that many of Trump's policies are for
example the kind of preparations that I'm talking about now, including
the following:

• Withdraw troops and resources from Syria and other regions to make
  them available for war with China.
• Maintain forward air bases in Afghanistan (Bagram and Kandahar
  International Airport)
• Maintain THAAD anti-missile defenses in South Korea
• Use negotiations with Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un to slow
  preparations for war
• Use tariffs to slow China's preparations for war
• Use sanctions to slow North Korea's preparations for war

These are some of the things that Trump is doing to prepare America
for war. What are some other suggestions?

On a personal level, here's a summary of what I wrote in the past to
someone living in Seoul, South Korea:

The thing is, you really have to think about what you want to do.

What this web site and Generational Dynamics give you is an insight
into what's going to happen. Some people ask me if it's better off
just to ignore all this stuff. My answer is that it probably is,
since you can't do anything about it, and you might as well just enjoy
life as normal.

So if you live in Seoul, just forget that you ever came to this site,
and go one with your happy day to day life as usual. Quite honestly,
in the end, it will probably be the best choice.

On the other hand, if you do want to do something about the situation,
then you have to stop being scared, make a plan, and do it. I've
known people who have become survivalists, and are now living in some
unknown bunkers somewhere in the midwest USA. Other people are making
sure that everyone in their family knows how to use a gun.

If you're a young male, you might take this advice from forum member
Higgenbotham:

Higgenbotham wrote: > Based on the information you provided, since you are young
> (presumably wouldn't have a lot of money to invest) and you think
> a nuclear war is probable, I would suggest you first "invest in
> yourself" and your survival. One idea for consideration in that
> regard is to set yourself up to be able to get to a safe haven
> outside the US. A couple countries that come to mind are Chile and
> Namibia. One way to do that would be to try to meet a woman in a
> country you determine to be a safe haven who has a reputable and
> well connected family. Know how you are going to get to her
> family's home within 24 hours and have the money set aside to do
> that, your bags packed and an idea of what news would make you
> ready to act.

So his advice is to pick a country, move there, and move in with some
reputable woman.

Continuing with my response to the person living in Seoul, maybe that
option isn't available to you. If you're able to leave Korea, then
you have to decide whether you should do that and, if so, when and
where. Or, as I understand it, southern South Korea is likely to be a
lot safer than Seoul, so you might consider taking your family and
moving there.

Once you've figured out what your choices are, you have to pick one of
them and decide to live with it. If you decide to do nothing, live
with that. If you decide to move somewhere, live with that. Just
make up your mind and do it. And I really mean it when I say that
doing nothing may be the best choice, since no place is really safe
from a world war, so why bother?

So that was my reponse to someone living in Seoul.

So what should other people do?

Are there places in the US that might be safe?

Should people purchase enough canned food to last a year?

What about the EMP blast that's supposed to completely fry every
electrical circuit in the country, and lead to death of 90% of
the population?

John, I've been thinking about this question a lot over the past few years. As a long time Generational Dynamics Weblog reader, I took your advice to heart and recently sold my house to have my assets as liquid as possible. I was expecting the U.S. economy to begin entering an economic recession by now and for the world to become so chaotic that it began negatively affecting our economy but that hasn't happened yet. And since selling my house this past fall, I've grown tired of paying rent for a noisy apartment so I'm going to buy another house but I'll look to only stay there temporarily. My point is that, like the man in Seoul who moves out of the city too early...it's hard to get the timing just right. If you prepare prematurely, you may lack the patience to wait things out. So, instead...I've reached other conclusions.

#1 - Do not live in a big city/capitol city. As you have previously pointed out, when war comes...if China does strike the mainland, they are undoubtedly going to strike the major cities. I'm sure that Washington D.C., New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, and some of the other big cities on the coasts like San Francisco, Boston, and perhaps Miami will be tempting targets. State capitols will be secondary targets as well.

#2 - Do not live in a city that hosts a military base. Obviously, any city that hosts an Army, Naval, or Air Force base will be a priority target for Chinese missiles, rockets, and bombs. Here's an example. I was born in raised in Huntsville, AL. It's far from a major city...I imagine most Americans haven't heard of it before. But Huntsville hosts the Redstone Arsenal. The Arsenal is a garrison for a number of tenants including the United States Army Materiel Command, Army's Aviation and Missile Command, the Missile Defense Agency of the Department of Defense, and NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. Basically, Redstone Arsenal is the command center for the U.S. Army's missile and rocket program. And less than 40 miles from Huntsville lies the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant (In 2014, Browns Ferry was the second-largest power producer in the United States). Huntsville, AL is also home to the nation's second largest research park (Cummings Research Park), home to many of the defense contractors and subcontractors that provide the technology to build the Army's missiles and rockets that are controlled from Redstone Arsenal. So even though Huntsville has a population of less than 200,000, it will be a major target for China. Although my parents still live in the area, I don't want to be anywhere near Huntsville when war breaks out.

#3 - Live or have a place of safety in a rural area far from a major city or military installation. Have enough land so that you can grow your own crops. And to prepare for the coming war, become more self-reliant. It's not enough to merely have enough land to farm on. Go ahead and grow a half acre or 1 acre garden every year so you'll have the knowledge to farm the rest of your 40 acres when war breaks out. Buy a hunting rifle and learn how to kill a deer, clean it, and cook the venison. Learn how to can what you grow. Start out now by spending 1 day canning every summer and producing a few dozens cans of vegetables. This way, you and your loved ones will know how to create a thousand cans of vegetables and fruits when the need arises. If you know how to farm, can what you grow, and hunt and prepare deer, you won't starve during a future war.

#4 - Figure out which supplies will be most dearth in America once we can no longer import products from China and stockpile these items. I don't know which products these are, but once war with China begins, we will immediately lose access to every product that we currently import from China or any other Southeast Asian nation...from rare earth minerals to electronics to consumer goods to medical devices to food. Personally, I'll probably stock up on extra contact lenses and saline solution. Figure out which items are most important to you, especially if these items are not produced in the U.S. Also, if the production of these items in the U.S. depends on supplies or materials which are imported, then these items may not be able to be produced domestically in time of war. For example, there won't be many new smartphones after the war begins because they're almost all manufactured in China and it requires certain rare Earth metals and elements to create them...rare Earth metals that we can't dig out of the ground here in the States. The same goes for laptops and batteries for electric vehicles.

#5 - Buy guns and ammo and learn how to shoot your guns.

#6 - Buy a gas and a solar generator and a Ham radio. But access to gasoline will surely be a problem in time of war.

#7 - Have chickens on your rural property. The Chickens will provide a renewable source of protein with their eggs and their meat.

#8 - Have access to clean water, whether that's a well on your property or a nearby spring or creek.

#9 - Start stockpiling an emergency stash of cash. Don't keep it in a bank. Physically keep the cash where you can reach it in an emergency without depending on a bank.

#10 - Like Navigator suggested, take advantage of any connections to the U.S. Military if they're available. I'm already 47 years old so I'm already considered worthless by the U.S. military but if you're younger, you may want to consider joining the military. In times of war, those in the military will potentially have better access to food, shelter, and medical care than civilians. Remember there's only enough room for a relative chosen few in the nation's nuclear war fallout shelters and those in the military or who work for the government/hold political office will have priority seating reservations. Just make sure you don't get stuck in the infantry. But I'm going to plan on staying as far away from military bases as I can get.

This list could go on and on but I think it's good for all of us to start thinking this way...thinking about how we can become more self-reliant and prepare for what could be troublesome times ahead. And I need to follow all of this advice as well. I haven't even begun to prepare and as of today, I don't have a rural property...I don't know how to farm and I can't can. But I know about such things because my father and his family...they all grew up farming and canning what they grew. The knowledge is still there if we tap into it.