Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

http://www.cyclesman.net/audio-commentary

Top link from March 21 is the follow up to some of the old links here.

[Higgenbotham]

I assume maybe around 1610 soon if luckey and many bailing around
1600.

I don't have any more projections as I see no more historical analogs to compare to. Perhaps one could project Elliott Waves but I have no confidence in that. I am still 100% short. From 1522 to 1552 on the June futures over the past month I have lost 4.6 points with around the clock monitoring of my account. I cover and reenter the position to minimze the loss as it grinds up. Sometimes I miss. I hope to maintain that performance until the top is reached, if it hasn't already, and be on it when it drops.

[tim]

During a period of decline, before the arrival of a dark age proper, the processes of disintegration, disorganisation and discohesion, which have already occurred in reality, begin filtering through into perceptions. As perceptions catch up with the reality, people comment on their problems at length and many of them may deplore the direction in which they see things moving.

The situation the US finds itself in is that the US potentially collapsed in 2008 but it was not a done deal. Generally, it was believed that the US had not potentially collapsed and it was believed that weak and inappropriate counter measures could be taken to get over the perceived little speed bump on the road to greater progress. In 2008, had the perception been more in line with reality, it would have been understood that a potential collapse had occurred and the correct counter measures would have been taken; for example, the rule of law would have been applied and criminals would have gone to prison. Since the correct counter measures were not taken, the collapse has gone from being a potential collapse to being a real, irreversible collapse. The real, irreversible collapse will become a dark age when perceptions line up with reality, which is inevitable because the collapse has become irreversible.

So if they had let the stock market crash in 2008 - things would have been bad, maybe 1930's depression bad, but the government, infrastructure, and "system" would still be intact.

Since they refused to let the markets correct themselves they have spread the "insolvency" throughout the U.S. and even the worldwide financial system.

The bailouts and QE have bought us time, but in the long run the collapse is going to be much deeper and worse because of it?

[John]

From 1522 to 1552 on the June futures over the past month I have lost 4.6 points with around the clock monitoring of my account. I cover and reenter the position to minimze the loss as it grinds up. Sometimes I miss. I hope to maintain that performance until the top is reached, if it hasn't already, and be on it when it drops.

This is hair-raising.

[Higgenbotham]

So if they had let the stock market crash in 2008 - things would have been bad, maybe 1930's depression bad, but the government, infrastructure, and "system" would still be intact.

Since they refused to let the markets correct themselves they have spread the "insolvency" throughout the U.S. and even the worldwide financial system.

The bailouts and QE have bought us time, but in the long run the collapse is going to be much deeper and worse because of it?

If I filter everything I observe through that prism, that's what seems to fit best. I might modify that a bit to say that jump starting and stabilizing things in 2008 and 2009 was not necessarily bad. But, once stabilized, LTRO and QE3 were counter productive.

If Bernanke really thought there were an exit and turnaround at hand, he would want to be there and stamp his name on it, for sure, just as one observation. Remember in 2009 how he patted himself on the back for "saving the world"?

[Higgenbotham]

http://blog.markdcook.com/?p=600

I agree with all of this.

[aedens]

He is absolutely correct as we forwarded the linkages here before from Rothbard in the forums. It took time to let it sink it but the causation
linkages cannot be denied. The malinvest to clearing is what we are witnessing as the proper context has been missed by some.
Congrats to Iceland for not going down this road since they actually protected the taxpayer and are fixing the banks who acted
with negligence and thus unbraided moral hazzard. I noted they had a 14 percent rise in assets so they are adjusting to very diverse
elements.

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... ond#p18249

Broadly speaking risk-assets stayed well correlated with stocks though bonds and we have noted why on the ratio to bond and stock lipstick.

I was wrong on timing, and right from help from you all from our may, june , july context of coversations of 2009 distortions of the market "malinvest".
Jul 6, 2009 6:36 pm: Games over for EU there about 6 to 9 month behind the States on the stupidity meter. The eye the storm is passing and the backside off it is nearing. Beware it's path we have not stopped discharges of staff. Beware souls and your on your own, there clueless. Brush off your Mises. Hayek. and Rothbard your going to need it very soon since is if your paying attention. The hour is late and Washington is miles behind reality.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... cus-europe
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-2 ... xt-iceland I already linked our case here on what and how it was done.
Two got what they deserved in the Federal Court. Stop hiring retards in Congress would help about now.

[Higgenbotham]

The malinvest to clearing is what we witnessing as the proper context has been missed by some.

Looks like the market has or had thoroughly bought into the idea of the increase in rates signalling economic growth over the horizon. All evidence to the contrary is or was ignored, but did you notice the market sold the "good" data this week? That surprised me and that's the first time I've seen it.

[aedens]

New dawn evey day and the hope to and opportunity to serve the customer since every day is indeed a gift. Old joke for those who remember the jesuits and the pre wall days. Soon the HFT will not feed on our labor and equity since we are going private. If you look at the ten year trend and stock of amount smart equity is leaving wall street. The day is coming and we warned what is coming on the fouth turning and how already. Can it continue, not really sure but people need to awaken since the Keynesian Veil of tyrany is being lifted just as the wall fell then. As noted Putin is taking all commoditys as reported here. They never will get it or ever wanted to anyway unless people are really that disconnected.
http://news.yahoo.com/kremlin-foe-boris ... 23054.html

meanwhile noted: Europe hasn't pursued austerity. Anyone who says it has is lying. But it makes for a nice political argument in favour of stimulus. European total debt has kept climbing, now at 390%, as the private sector hasn't paid down any debt, while governments have increased their debt portions.

Fact is the Yen is more on my radar than the Euro Cyprus problem. I will watch and like every one else hope these put outliers are just that in the
larger chain of events we do not need.

[aedens]

Faced with a major credibility crisis at the onset of the GFC, there has been a mad rush by mainstream economists to add financial sector to their models. It might surprise you that the major models used to teach students and motivate research in macroeconomics didn’t even have financial sectors included, among other glaring deficiencies. Now there is a flurry of work to address that deficiency. The problem is that all this effort, which will produce countless papers at academic conferences, will not address the fundamental issue – the mainstream macroeconomics framework is rotten to the core. The BIS paper provides some insights into that issue.

http://www.bis.org/publ/work395.pdf

The financial cycle: frequency and turning-point based methods.

We took alot of crap here on modeling i.e and adjusted and backtested the beta notional market value even Benny and the Inkjets noted.
Like we posited Higg the composite overlays had not been severly adulterated to fit. I took your adjusted nominal values and again
came up with a risk spread on our money since we trade it. I read the paper and conclude on my part a over all spread almost
as you did to twenty percent. I garnered 8.2 up or 8.2 down on a cone thought "spread" forward so with this Cyprus affair coming to
forefront we shall see in a few weeks one way or the other anyway on wasted efforts and animal spirits and good old opinions...