Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Without the rule of law to property rights it is pointless since marked to market is culprit for the legions of ill we have consistantly tracked here other than the cartelized commonditys as we noted as Putin has and is currently modeled to be for the African Campain Bank of and in process as we noted here some time ago for obvious reasons as he markets the building blocks in the untamed market called south Africa we have alluded to. We noted and hinted here to the trial ballon, but alas I feel as many they threw the baby out with the bathwater "outmanuevered the Eurotards" some may note which is incorrect. This is about resources regions to landed costs period so get that straight. The only repair will be as noted by tyler also is there may then naturally arise on the market a system in which equity, bonds, and genuine time deposits that cannot be redeemed before maturity become the exclusive sources of finance for bank loans and investments. Many will will note this as the Austrian approach to the fact of the charter, and character of Lawful contracts held to surety, and the bond holders taking risk as discount managers unmolested and undiluted since market forces elimimate moral hazard "malinvest" since winners and losers are statist protectorates to insider trader revenue streams. The point is it cannot work in some markets since absolute corruption is absuletly maintained for assurances other than surety to shareholders risk premium and Consumer decisions in open market preferences we are aware off already. They killed the market signals to be blunt and the ensueing thesis of our event horizon they deny called margin earnings. Being in the shadow of the event horizon does not destoy the observations in real time to the cascading tiny bubbles we noted a very long time ago here in generational dynamics purview. Productivity cannot be maintained by whip or lead since the natrural economy always arrest this phenomena called Human Action.

This thing is very, very ripe. My expectation was to see the markets do things I've never seen them do before and that expectation has been fulfilled in many ways.

In actual trading, I try to ignore my biases and work with what's in front of me, but I'm having a lot of difficulty doing that in the past 2 days because this is so far beyond ridiculous.

The similar boxed areas contain the same number of trading sessions in most cases. I see strong similarities with all 3 of these (ending and possible ending) patterns.

I agree Higg and as noted I refuse to trade this week but that is my choice only to sift what it is even considered reality lately. As noted existence determines consciousness to quote Marx be it good or bad and as we see three generations of confusion even Amos warned what would be. We have sold into this mess and will wait for earnings since life is at the margins and truly the viability of the consumer well being. Have we missed some points on the topside, ok I can preserve captial with that reality after the calls. The game is afoot for sure, and I am happy and sleeping very sound waiting to seek value since as noted the consumer still is, and in rather rough shape if they belive it or not. I will not deny the slow, and I do mean slow recovery of many bloodied and battered to date. As they run up this wealth effect they are distancing themselves from the very people they need. Sad but painfully true. Be carefull. May the Holiday upcoming remind us all what is important.

I had noted back in 2011 that there were some excesses as the mini bubble shown in the second chart was being built up. And based on the copper to oil ratio posted earlier today, copper had gotten ahead of itself in February 2011. The current case is different in that it is a true bubble. Everything is turned on it's head; for example, the ratio of copper to oil is near lows as the stock market is at an all time high. I could fill up the rest of the page with similar observations but it's useless.

The news of the day as I heard it was that fund managers needed to buy today to show they had "good stocks" on their balance sheet this quarter. That reminds me of late in 2008 when managers were buying t-bills yielding negative interest to show they had "good collateral" on their balance sheet.

The miracles of Keynes…
“Eleven states now have more residents dependent on the government than they have people with jobs in the private sector. These are:
Ohio, Hawaii, Illinois, Kentucky, South Carolina, New York, Maine, Alabama, California, Mississippi and New Mexico.
“Last month, the Senate Budget Committee reported that in 2011, between food stamps, housing, child care, Medicaid and other benefits, the average U.S. household below the poverty line received $168 a day in government support. To put this into perspective, the median household income in America is just over $50,000, which averages out to $137.13 a day.
“Welfare now pays the equivalent of $30 an hour for a 40-hour week, while the average job pays $25 an hour.” -- AFP - March 25, 2013

In 1963 five silver quarters was minimum wages.

Chicago Bridge & Iron Company N.V. (CBI)-NYSE do not foget to give some to the needy
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... cbi#p18404

Appropriately enough, the S&P 500 closed at its all-time high closing price today on pretty much the lowest volume day of the year. tyler

I hope you all found your way here. The new forum address is

http://gdxforum.com/forum/

I hope and pray that putting the forum into a new domain
all its own will help end all the craziness.

References to the old forum should automatically redirect
to this forum. If there are any problems, let me know.

John

I have been reading "Fiat Money Inflation in France" again. I am struck by many similarities to today. For example,

"This great debtor class, relying on the multitude who could be approached by superficial arguments, soon gained control. Strange as it might seem to those who have not watched the same causes at work at a previous period in France and at various times in other countries, while every issue of paper money really made matters worse, a superstition gained ground among the people at large that, if only enough paper money were issued and were more cunningly handled the poor would be made rich. Henceforth, all opposition was futile."

The massive printing of money helps speculators and debtors but hurts regular productive business. Same then as now.

Then the rich got richer and the poor got poorer. Wages did not keep up with inflation. Same as now.

The "if only enough paper money were issued" claim is just like Krugman now.

Once the printing presses really got going there were vested interests in keeping them going, and it was not possible to stop. Same thing now I think. The debtors and speculators today like another QE. The gold bugs expect it and are positioned for it. Who will stop it?

Then there were laws passed limiting the amount of money created and each time they just raised the limits. About the same thing now really.

Then they had a QE1 and a QE2 and eventually continous printing. Same as now.

Anyway, if you have not read this, I highly recommend it. If you have, I think it is worth reading again.

http://www.gutenberg.org/files/6949/6949-h/6949-h.htm

I combined 2 of the diagrams and put some labels on them to make them more understandable.

The first 2 red marks show where the maroon colored band inflected in a similar way in both cases and the last red mark shows where price hugged the band for 5-6 sessions in both cases. Bottom to top in both patterns is just over 170 points. Both of the 34 session runs carried the market up a similar amount, 120-130 points. Price got more of a lift into the February 18, 2011 high (shown on top), then dropped more out of that high than it did out of the March 15, 2013 high (shown directly underneath the February 18, 2011 high). The February 18, 2011 high occurred on options expiration Friday whereas yesterday was end of quarter Thursday (markets closed today).

vincecate wrote:Who will stop it?

The dollar will become worthless in this crisis, I think. If the forces of deflation are to gain the upper hand, I think we will start to see that happen in the next 2 months and then will need to see how that goes. This time now seems comparable to early 2011. The difference I think is what you have said, that there seems to be a consensus that money printing is harmless and it is OK to do it in increasing amounts forever. On the chart above, I have labeled QE2 and QE4. When QE2 was announced, many were outraged. When QE4 was announced, the response was ho-hum. But the truth is that QE4 is the most outrageous action taken by a Central Bank in centuries. That response is telling us that the dollar will be destroyed.

vincecate wrote:Once the printing presses really got going there were vested interests in keeping them going, and it was not possible to stop. Same thing now I think.

While QE4 was widely expected, the Fed’s move to a new type of guidance came as a surprise. Stock markets, which rallied on Tuesday, rose in the aftermath of the decision, while the rate on 10-year Treasuries slid to 1.65% and gold inched up. Major financials like Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and JPMorgan Chase rose on the news.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecch ... below-6-5/