Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

I can short because it's my money. But if I worked for a firm there's no way I would short unless I was specifically directed to by management because it can't be justified short term. The risk of being fired would be too high. So therein lies the risk of catastrophic collapse and the chart shows it also. The first wave down is normally to the bottom band - the bottom band is declining at an accelerating rate as the top band is going parabolic...this is Bernanke's personal Frankenstein, not a normal bubble as it was in 2000 and 2007. The periphery must print faster than Bernanke; it is now too late. It was too late when Europe was forced by Bernanke to print but now there is acceleration to the concrete wall.

[aedens]

We are here on the three firms and serving the political class is market suicide.
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... less#p2765
The Consumer is Sovereign
They delayed not solved the root problem
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wu9DKYQrGBI no-one has quite articulated what the policy is meant to achieve is, naturally, no impediment to the launching

[Higgenbotham]

"On the other hand, one may find it difficult to identify what is driving the stock market. One’s own consumption may be of mostly transient pleasures, and one may worry whether one’s work is really making a positive contribution to the commonweal. In that case, the economic descent will be proceeding unchecked."

Unchecked is a good word for it and applicable to your comments also.

[Higgenbotham]

Someone e-mailed me this last week. I'm generally familiar with what it is but don't find a trace of any such chart or calculation on the Internet at this time. The person who sent it to me was asking what it was. It's a log periodic model that is evidently predicting that the S&P 500 has gone parabolic and will imminently collapse.

BHlBG8qCEAA-pac.jpg (50.89 KiB) Viewed 2869 times

[aedens]

I can only convey what will be as headwinds since the 2009 facts and what has already been noted to why.
Patience and due diligence is crucial now.

[Higgenbotham]

The lows are too erratic to get anything mathematically precise. But if he's right that the low around the fiscal cliff scare came in early then he may have a good model. I'll have to think about it some more today.

Update - He's right. I can get it to work pretty closely, I'll draw it out.

[aedens]

The S&P 500 P/E ratio is 18.28 as of April 12 as indicated from the main page.
I think I will stick to John's noted reality and then go from there but consider the
diluted view alluded to called inflationary expectation theft.
The commodity complex will send message. The peak - peak confirms
what we should note and did from the function that was forwarded.
The operation noted as 20 month of the base function scales and
the indication was noted on response to the wave function.
Even tho it was inhibited the indication will be clear soon enough.
I would not even pretend to want to be in its way leveraged which was
my view and intent to take deliverery.

[Higgenbotham]

Using a decay ratio of 0.55 gets the time series on the chart. I moved the last 3 red lines one bar to the left. Probably something around 0.548 would make all the red lines fit as marked.

0.55 RATIO.gif (35.29 KiB) Viewed 2850 times

[aedens]

The pidgeons align on the function. I suspected correctly on delivery.

[Higgenbotham]

Found where the chart came from. Some interesting comments here.

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp

My opinion is that any model has to be rebuilt or at least altered starting with the fiscal cliff resolution in late December.