Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Public companies that give lots of money to Congress do much better than average. Time for some kind of cleansing.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/05/study- ... he-sp-500/

The stock market has continued its upcrash through this generational panic period and by my calculations, if the 1929 pattern continues to be followed, the upcrash will end Tuesday (I don't think it has to end on any exact day, just somewhere in this area).

The important numbers I see are, first, the span from the 2011 high to low was 1370.58 to 1074.77. Taking that span and adding it to the 2011 high gives 1666.39. That level was reached Friday and could be the top. However, there is another consideration. In the series 667, 1000, 1333, 1667, we see the market bottomed in 2009 at 667. Since then, the market has tended to gravitate toward numbers about 11 points over that series of numbers, Thus, we have seen 1011 for the July 2010 low, 1344 for the February 2011 high, and 1344 for the November 2012 low. This makes 1678 also seem possible.

There has been a recent shift in psychology where many former bears are now saying the bull market will last until the Fall of 2013 or even later. This is to be expected when an important high is being made.

A high stock market doesn't change anything except to show that this cycle is larger, Bernanke has had more freedom to tweak it at the end, and the worst possible path has been chosen. The ability to tweak the cycle has come from many unique factors. The US has the world reserve currency and has used that power to milk out and destroy Europe and Asia through the various QE programs in order to artificially hold up the US economy and stock market. This will not lead the world out of depression but will cause countries to topple like dominoes, probably starting with Japan, then the rest of Asia and Europe, followed by the world power centers of New York and Washington collapsing into chaos like Rome.

Making the rounds to current sentiment:

The market bribe will keep the neo pagans content.

The agenda to eliminate "fringe" groups seems to be progressing nicely.
Now the charade of a two party system is over things will kick into high gear.
Cloward-Pliven plan, Phase II.
Phase I - breed 2-3 generations of dependent Democrats in your inner cities. When they reach 50% of the voters, you can take over all 3 branches of government. check
Phase II - politicize health care delivery, kill off all non-Democrats by denying health care. No bullets in the police station basement needed. check
Phase III - Socialist Utopia. check

Prove it wrong, the total surveillance society is one way street. You are to young, or to stupid to deny this.

Senate has been relegated to local affairs for decades, if they say no they lie.

Of course he didn't know anything about the IRS targeting Tea Partiers. check
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/06/1 ... ing-a-gun/

They will crash the market when they wish and will. Just as before. They own you now and do not think they do not.

The ancillary stories that are popping up, now are numbing.

No they are not.....

This is another exit plan from a mature market. Define mature as locust move on to attack other zones. They are.

As we noted early here if the smoke clears and they are damn lucky they will just appear to be in the middle as
warned since the time of Athens and as Thyclydides noted.
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... ian#p19407

They did crash the market. They crashed it up. We are seeing generational panic. Panic to buy stocks instead of panic to sell stocks. I suppose the latter will still come, but on the chart this doesn't look like 1929 or any other stock index mania.

I'm looking at multiple statistics that are beyond anything previously seen. A few:
200 SPX points over the 12 month moving average
70 SPX points over the previous month's high in a (multi month) uptrend where there has been a series of higher highs and higher lows for months
Bollinger Band parabolic

All not seen in any of the bubbles of the past 15 years, and many other statistics are at records. The deviations from some moving averages are what are seen during selling panics.

Sample chart showing the above 3 statistics:
I think the Fed is exhibiting less control as time goes on. Reason being, the market is getting more volatile on a long term basis. In 2008 and 2009, the market crashed a little over 100 points below its 2002 low in just 17 months. From that low, the market has upcrashed almost 100 points over its 2007 high in just 50 months. It is moving further over shorter time spans. If that process were to continue, the next crash will be less than 17 months and over 1000 points.

I'm still short but if they take it up over 1770 I'll probably have to get out. It would depend on how well I navigate. I might be able to take 100 points beyond that, but it's doubtful I can last to 1900 if they take it straight up into the Summer.

I think your very close H - I see it running to ~june8 - 12th then fade to probable peak in august. Silver beatdown to 20 in julymid Consequently money tends to flow to investments that have done well, rather than investments that will do well. You must see the point to what survived when it collapsed then. I have seen one person see the Bread and Beer stock thought to date on what survived then. This also means they are leaving to create new debt serfs and are as we speak. How many times do we discuss the same issue of ngdp some will call slippage and every 10 years the chart looks like rope burn. They are printing paper for the idiots as they leave or as you know the Customer decides and we have detailed acount here for many years now. Technicals "mostly now " do not acount for rabid disconnects of printing.

We all here understand clearly here - The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent -
The seams will present themselves so we cannot expect the ctrl-alt-del gang to even pretend to care.
Check POMO dates first then look.
We are nodes in cluster market with net working capital expertise hanging on as the world goes insane Higg.
Not our first rodeo and yes it happens all the time... http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 520#p19422

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One Reason the U.S. Stock Market Keeps Going Up


http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/ ... AX20130518
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RC I follow the thought map but even 8,000 as the story reads and for your consideration multiply times 10 still does not account for the volume and debasement process from POMO stealth purchases alone. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/ ... ent/h6.htm Very, very, very small amount of effect but I will admit to our conversation on Putins edict bring your ruble home or else may be a small effect also. Good thought since all these amounts can add up but the chief perp is benny and the inkjets debasements. Maybe we should call it the royal flush out effect and you can have the notation since it bears witness to a good thought map.
Radioactive leaks found at 75% of US nuke sites - CBS News
recent -michigan nuclear emission
recent - south carolina nuclear emission
recent - million of marines and familys drinking toxic water for decades.
Even if half these creatures called government got the boot the deseased mindset and logic remains.
No amount of fatal deciet even from hayek can cover the last thirty years of lies.
recent - another http://enenews.com/smoke-coming-from-nu ... bine-photo

Barrels of nuclear waste found by journalists — 60 trillion becquerels of radioactivity dumped (PHOTO) April 12, 2013
German journalists have discovered barrels of radioactive waste on the floor of the English Channel ... It was previously thought the material had dissipated ... a new investigative report from the joint French-German public broadcaster ARTE has concluded that the waste is still intact at the bottom of the sea.
Ask Putin if the cores they dumped are still in the artic sea, yea right they will get right on it.

They will kill us all and they have the balls to regulate our health care. All lies top to bottom, just as our kill switch was tin foil.

Nothing or any amount of bullshit can make these dinosaur facilty's safe since even the self licking ice cream cones
need them for a job. They will simply screw up so bad again and again and again. Taxpayers are slaves to these creatures.

http://www.bigbikeriders.com/gt/
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... g30#p17615 <---- my fav from John

Reprint: As for what is coming? Even if you tell them since when do macroparasites since Sumer listen. Since when do we cure ignorance and stupidity.
I think the loss of the young man is a benchmark on the illness and our dark ages we have tried to avoid for decades in the actual struggle to
survive the forces most never even see or wish to consider in darkness. Many see the dark age is already here, and we are watching the
lumens scale in response as Jevons.

Should be within the next 80 points worst case, I would think. All the top callers have worn themselves out and have nothing left. Once that failed, there was the parabolic blowoff of the past 3 weeks. This is what Glenn Neely was calling for and he has been the only one consistently right for a year. Now he is saying there will be a quick trip to 1700 and maybe higher this month and that will be the high for many years. As far as exactly how high or when at this point, who knows, or at least I don't because we're past all previous history except to look at the inverse of previous crashes. I played to be good to at least 1770 and that should be good enough to survive it. All the liquidity sloshing around makes for greater extremes in both directions. When the downside gets going it probably won't be pretty.

Higgenbotham wrote:Should be within the next 80 points worst case, I would think. All the top callers have worn themselves out and have nothing left. Once that failed, there was the parabolic blowoff of the past 3 weeks. This is what Glenn Neely was calling for and he has been the only one consistently right for a year. Now he is saying there will be a quick trip to 1700 and maybe higher this month and that will be the high for many years. As far as exactly how high or when at this point, who knows, or at least I don't because we're past all previous history except to look at the inverse of previous crashes. I played to be good to at least 1770 and that should be good enough to survive it. All the liquidity sloshing around makes for greater extremes in both directions. When the downside gets going it probably won't be pretty.

What happens to your scenario if the Fed "panics," and raises the
$85 billion monthly QE to $200 billion monthly?

Higgenbotham wrote:Should be within the next 80 points worst case, I would think. All the top callers have worn themselves out and have nothing left. Once that failed, there was the parabolic blowoff of the past 3 weeks. This is what Glenn Neely was calling for and he has been the only one consistently right for a year. Now he is saying there will be a quick trip to 1700 and maybe higher this month and that will be the high for many years. As far as exactly how high or when at this point, who knows, or at least I don't because we're past all previous history except to look at the inverse of previous crashes. I played to be good to at least 1770 and that should be good enough to survive it. All the liquidity sloshing around makes for greater extremes in both directions. When the downside gets going it probably won't be pretty.

http://economic-research.bnpparibas.com ... dPdf=21951 t
I think we have been rather consistant here and I also let go lately. We did note the trajectory will push past what we noted also tho. Since we trade our book here we can take some libertys. Ben is aware what survived last time since 1913 was a ruse to eliminate and cull the political herd anyway just as Justinian did in harsher terms before. He only butchered around 35,000 if I remember correctly. As noted bread and beer stocks thoughts and those allowed to run to zero and the velvit cord to others which is the current reality anyway if push comes to shove.. Vanilla if in still is slaves to the ice cream cones anyway. Will Ben protect the herd? Nope just his crayon color of parameters if you fit only as he slides out the door since the mantra as the Keyansian Veil in the long run we are all dead anyway. Anyway since the Stanford papers nothing has been real.