Navigator wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:52 pm
John wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:22 pm
As I've said before, I think that a possible scenario is that Putin
won't attempt a full-scale invasion, which could go on for years, but
instead would take Biden's suggestion of a "limited incursion." In
2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed
Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait,
controlling access to the Sea of Azov. Today, a "limited incursion"
would be an invasion of the seaports Mariupol and Berdyansk, in order
to create a land bridge from Russia to Crimea.
I have seen another good option coming from UK reporting, that Putin intends to install his own puppet as the "true" Ukrainian president.
This would solve the problem of Russian "occupation" and just have ethnic Russians in the Ukraine run and police everything.
The Russians would recognize this puppet and their supporting regime, and provide them with the muscle they need to enforce their rule. This way Putin could even say that Ukraine was still an "independent" nation.
Given the rather long and somewhat successful (albeit not permanently successful) example of the post WW2 communist eastern European regimes (with which Putin has lots of experience, BTW) this is probably his ultimate strategy for the Ukraine.
Post WW2 Russian was a military juggernaut, modern Russian is not. Little Chechnya thrashed them. The Russians did, however, install a group of Quislings in Chechnya and let them largely (but not entirely) defeat the rebels. The Russians only resorted to this after losing huge numbers of Russian troops and spending billions of dollars that they could not afford to spend. Even now Russia shells out billions of dollars for the puppet regime in tiny Chechnya.
That policy wouldn't work for the massive Ukraine. it is too big and well armed (unlike the lightly armed Chechens). Also, Chechnya is buried deep inside of the Russian federation, far away from Western borders; the Ukraine is very close to the West.
Time to get serious about defeating the Russians.
Or be defeated and suffer the horrific consequences.
There are so many ways to easily derail the Russians.
#1 Arm the Chechen rebels. They can be supplied through the Pankisi Gorge in Georgia. Easy.
#2 Close the borders to Russia and Belarus and expel all of their nationals from the West. Real Estate in London, New York, and Miami will become affordable.
#3 Freeze the assets of the oligarchs and all Russians in the West. Use the money to fund NATO rearmament.
#4 Build a statue of Baroness Thatcher on the ruins of the former Russian Embassy in London. Shoot anyone who tries to vandalize it.
#5 Do the same with Chinese and Serbian citizens. Real Estate everywhere from LA to Melbourne to Vancouver will become much cheaper and young people will be able to buy a decent home at an affordable price.
The West needs to take concrete steps to the new Axis Powers of Russia and China; otherwise, they will be fighting wars in the Baltics, Poland, Ukraine, Bosnia, Kosova, Croatia, Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, Montenegro, and all of the Asian pacific. OR, America can sit on it's hands and let 1938-39 repeat itself and rick losing everything.