Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

It's interesting that in 2010 the Fed was talking about reducing the balance sheet via an "exit strategy".

There was a mini panic in the stock market from January 19, 2010 to February 5, 2010 that resembled what has been seen the past month.

A search for Fed exit strategy January 2010 finds some mention of it, for example, this article from January 22, 2010:

http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/22/news/ec ... d_preview/

CNN Article from 2010 wrote:And most doubt there will be any new details about plans to unwind its other programs -- such as how and when it will start paring back its holdings of $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities and $300 billion in long-term Treasurys -- until sometime this spring.

"They do need an exit strategy, but this month is not when they have to do it," said Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist for insurer Swiss Re.

Bernard Baumohl, executive director of the Economic Outlook Group, said the Fed needs to be careful. It could wind up making businesses and the markets nervous if it signals it is ready to withdraw its stimulus programs before there are more indications of a sustainable recovery.

The article also discusses whether Bernanke will be confirmed or not. Recent attention has been on the fact that Bernanke is leaving.

Now after increasing the balance sheet another $3 trillion or so over the past 3 years, the talk is about reducing the rate of increase, or "tapering".

Any talk of merely "tapering" had a similar effect on the market that talk of an "exit strategy" had in 2010.

aedens wrote:Higg was correct on the chaos nature as a flock of birds moving in unison of a void called atmosphere we noted a few times on quants, HFT and physics.

It does seem like the Fed has created a chaotic environment that can't be reordered. Already within 2 days we are seeing Fed talk of tapering and Fed talk of not tapering. Financial extremists.

Yes I noted the h.4 release and said ok whats so hard not to see. J was on a tangent thought about some positions I noted to rebuild some of (b) fund
in my book since, yes we preserved capital since why follow the dusty herd over a cliff. The hit was expected and as we are here its there. I was looking at eep, xlv, erf, cqp, pdh, gmo, and a few others but noted some vnr and pba I picked up. No, I refused to go over ankle deep with anybody since as noted the interbank rate was correct on the Asians part as discussed before.

As some are seeing now - So let me get this straight. First Bernanke attacks poor fixed incomers by sinking their interest rates and then he goes after their principal. I would advise read his work from 1983 for review and Anna's findings since we posted both which was of assistance on a few thought maps for me alone I note.

Was that hard to see? CRA will be paid for as the ACA fires up. I will check the book but as of today I have floated down to ~9.X over 1 year.
Did some see it coming, well yea turn off your TV and look around. I checked roseys posted and he has some good thoughts even if enmass missed it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-0 ... anada.html
If you look at his ytd and a few themes apparent who know why we did what we know on cap ratios.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GS:CN
As we noted I trimmed in May here and there since is and ought can be defined unlike some others. Also Kyle noted the cracks to as we did also.

Anyways as t notes: Colas notes that just seven stocks – MMM, BA, JNJ, AXP, DIS, HD, and HPQ – make up more than half the gains for the Dow in 2013. Most of these names have a distinctly cyclical flavor, of course. And while the Dow has its share of “Defensive” names, it pays to remember that the top 10 companies by weighting take up 54% of the Average. And they need a decent economy to grow earnings...

Some tangent float opines: “We gave it some time and let everyone get a little comfortable, and now we’re looking to get back on the old horse, shatter some consumer confidence, and flat-out kill any optimism for a stable global economy for years to come.”
Why did the U.S. government spend 2.6 million dollars to train Chinese prostitutes to drink responsibly? Retards you vote for time after time.
Considering the median price of a home in the US is $208,000 according to NAR, the average student debt balance is the equivalent of a 13% down payment. In other words, two-thirds of recent graduates have saved a negative 13% down payment toward their first home.

"The losses for ETFs today were far beyond what the most sophisticated financial risk models could have predicated for worst-case scenarios," said Bryce James, president of Smart Portfolio, which provides ETF asset allocation models.
Exactly since it would be ~-2x more loss every 100 basis points after 2.5 percent loss on the dow noted as a guess.

One of the quirks of contracting law is that the U.S. government has the authority to allow its contractors to infringe on a patent.
Welcome to the real world and why need to know is just what it means and some things we can never say.
http://jewishfaces.com/china.html --- https://duckduckgo.com/?q=new+york+banks+funded+nazi
The republican who stated we are 10 years behind was told that since he is twenty on that specific problem as we all are in so many areas.
A good reminder is what was first in the seventys "the food shock or the oil shock?"
Thinking Moa is not have a handler is like saying Bo does not if you are that vapid in thought I pity you.
http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charte ... cript.html Anything else pack up and gtfo imo
Anyway, he is the President and I support the Office even in times of boundless opportunitys and suffering.

http://books.google.com/books?id=LRUcAQ ... 12&f=false

It was just as easy to see the veil beginning to decend then as it draped over you face today.

aedens wrote:"The losses for ETFs today were far beyond what the most sophisticated financial risk models could have predicated for worst-case scenarios," said Bryce James, president of Smart Portfolio, which provides ETF asset allocation models.

That's exactly my thought. When the Fed released the statement I read it and saw no change, then looked at the hourly chart from the May 22 high. The market was trading about 1644. Based on no change in policy and the small range after the announcement, I wrote down what I thought would be the extreme move for say the next 24 hours: 1626 or 1618. The market was trading 1583 the next day.

I was not even considering raising a eyebrow and looking until 1600.
I will recheck my bids and cancel order friday tweeks. Point blank some bids never
hit the tape so I lifted a wry smile.. Many had to be tgif turning blue and got stopped out.
It makes sense on internalized orders if some like it or not IMO.
As we noted baskets are just that, pools. Collecting heads or as we note opportunitys
to move some widgits around which is just reality for them. We seen how many
got enviserated in the actual hedge funds categorys. To be blunt I was trading augusts
prints on spreads. Sectors do matter as noted on data posts. As we are at times here early
because we care and call it as it is. All here and there help to determine corrective action
and as noted the Asian's finally stepped up to the plate. Also Dr.Ben is correct and only
a lower wattage cannot understand that. Over two decades ago I was that bulb so all is good.
Was I early, No I feel the cracks told us and sweeps are needed to correct spreads earlier I will
ponder only. It would be naive from the 2008 post on what was coming anyway as more see.

J for you on some drilldown logic and what we noted last year on CHK issues with CIC so.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-0 ... anada.html
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=cic+china+and+chk think horizontal also on chains and vertical for support thesis

Piety requires us to honour truth above our friends. Aristotle
After Alexander the Great died in 323 B.C., Aristotle was charged with impiety, which was a lack of reverence for the gods, by the Athenian people. The Athenians resented his friendship with Alexander, who conquered them. Aristotle went to Chalcis, remembering similar charges against Socrates in 349 B.C. He died one year later in Chalcis.
I find no consolation on vetted information for 520 of 5 by 9. I said I was nuetral and we have a larger issue thought map than relegated thugs
on terra firma.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjrO3d4TdS4

When the financial markets no longer reflect the human condition, authorities must answer to true power of the marketplace.
Ask Sumer on the clay tablets on what happened and ask the left to define why they covet our labor first.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=to+covet

This recent move was larger than the move that followed the Fukushima disaster (point-wise, but not percentage-wise). Short term extreme oversold, long term still extreme overbought. 50+ points under the 13 period daily EMA at the Friday low. The most extreme reading on that measure since 2011. Highest SPY volume of the year Thursday at 300+ million. Very extreme market in all respects.

Let the market tell it has stabilized. They are cracking the margin books to smash the hives. Looking for a ~140 spread today.
I mean 60 percent negative bias. Do not go over ankle deep. IMO best guess. Bring your game, and toss the 50 ma.
Deeper pockets will surface. Then it gets fun.

expect real GDP growth to be at 7.5% yoy in Q2 2013 (from 7.8% previously), and 7.4% and 7.7% for 2013 and 2014 respectively (from 7.8% and 8.4% previously).

That we already knew BIS

You must learn from Nazi Germany to grasp the true dangers of Islam today. Alfons Heck, Former Hitler Youth Officer
http://affes.wordpress.com/invandrarna- ... utrakning/ math is hard for liberal idiots they only subtract from the makers
Effective propaganda is all about creating uncertainty. Insecure people are passive.

Drawdowns in copper stocks are notoriously unreliable signals however as some less-than-scrupulous players have in the past, simply bought copper, moved it out of the official warehouses and stuck it elsewhere all to give the idea that demand is robust. That allowed them to play the market from the long side claiming that supply was insufficient for current levels of demand.

totalitarian political system masquerading as a religion
moderates understand confusion shelters corruption

All of which screams stay away from European banks since we merged true assets anyway.
welcome to the old days on spreads and the soon to be dead books.

Key market gauges: The bottom fell out of the Shanghai Composite CN:SHCOMP-1.88%, as the benchmark gauge suffered its biggest retreat in almost four years amid mounting fears of a liquidity crunch. The carnage spread throughout the rest of Asia XX:ADOW-1.66% as the Hang Seng HK:HSI and the Nikkei JP:NIK were also hit hard. Read: China’s alarming credit crunch.
Europe XX:SXXP-1.87% is faring just a bit better, with most major indexes in the region down about 1%. Futures on the Dow YMU3-1.01% and the S&P ESU3-1.11% are pointing to a negative open after a move north to end a tough run last week.
Silver SIN3-1.95% is under pressure this morning after UBS cuts its outlook for this year and next, saying the metal could follow gold lower as the Fed reigns in stimulus.

there are zero occasions of any society stealing its way into prosperity i.e currency wars

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjrO3d4TdS4

first call the monsters are awake already

Twinkies are back! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEkGqb2wu5k

lulz unknown, unknowns http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/ ... -customers
chinese fire drill....
financial insiders on forums such as Zhihu, China’s version of Quora, suggested that it was a deliberate show of force by the bank in response to Premier Li Keqiang’s bid to encourage private capital via “non-government affiliated banks” and a general overhaul of the financial system.

Others said the bank might have been testing a “disaster recovery mechanism” to see how the bank would cope with a large-scale disaster such as the Japanese earthquake of 2011.

On Weibo, netizens slammed the bank for its bungled handling of the situation. “This is totally illogical. Why didn’t they upgrade their system at midnight and why didn’t they inform us beforehand?” one user said.
Beijing has long struggled to contain the growth in "shadow banking", where banks and other institutions can bypass controls on deposit and lending rates and other restrictions by offering so-called wealth-management products and other investment products.
Several observers have said the monetary authorities "benign neglect" could be the most effective way of curbing the dark side of China's borrowing spree, though recent market turbulence showed how easy it was to miscalculate its side effects.
The latest developments also prompted several economists to reconsider their views on how fast China's economy can grow.

Central planners choke holds taking over.

Cool aid from the source: asymmetric paternalism, states that paternalism should be invited if it bestows large benefits on those who make errors in judgment while imposing little or no harm upon those who are fully rational. While some may argue that this benefit to shortsighted consumers comes at the expense of retailers, it can be posited that correcting these errors in judgment enhances economic efficiency to the benefit of both parties involved.

Given that achieving such change is a difficult process, it is helpful to understand the dynamics of an individual’s desires and the strategies that
can effectively control them,
AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2003.

May the beatings continue until moral improves since we said so and diluted your education and raped your currency.
Go ahead and vote blue or red and see if they even pretend to listen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=p ... Y7RIn4byK0

Looking for supplemental information for making financial projections? Added to the reading of tea leaves, after all this has global impact ----it could be help full.

Regarding our Sun

3MIN News June 23, 2013: Interplanetary Shock Wave

interplanetary shock wave , elevated neutrons, rise and drop in electrons, drop in gamma bursts (from outside the solar system) etc. -- 3 minute video showing current solar activity.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... FoUbYYnNtI