Navigator wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 2:18 pm
So now the invasion of Ukraine by Russia is full on. As predicted here.
Here are some of my thoughts:
1. There is no global conspiracy, new world order, or whatever, who is manipulating events behind the scenes to force us into slavery dominated by shadowy financial figures. IMHO, this is based on conspiratorial thinking, which, as I have posted many times, is not rational or logical.
2. This war is literally Putin trying to restore Russia to what he believes is its “proper place in the world”. Which is what existed under the USSR, or even pre WW1 under the last Czars.
3. The West is going with Sanctions, which have never worked (outside of South Africa, which was, even under apartheid, a quasi-democracy that could only push its own people so far). It is wishful thinking that the Russian oligarchs are going to force Putin to stop. Look at what happens to any oligarch that gives Putin trouble. They have no more power/influence than the German industrialists who were ok with the installation of Hitler’s regime had in stopping Hitler. Putin controls the military, the Russian legal system, and the security forces (police and secret police). Cause Putin any discomfort and you’re dead.
4. The West is not going to help Ukraine, outside of maybe send it some more ammunition. We will all sit back in our living rooms and watch Ukraine die. The only chance of defending Ukraine was to have either given it NATO level security guarantees when it gave up its nukes (1994 Agreements under Clinton), have stood up to it when it took Crimea (2014 under Obama), or sent NATO peacekeeping forces into Ukraine when the current buildup started (2021 under Biden).
5. Putin is moving rather slowly, as he needs to build up domestic support (believe it or not, even Hitler worried about this), and build an increasingly stronger case, as bizarre as this seems, that Russia is defending itself against Western/NATO provocations and threats. Very soon we will see Russia convert over to a full wartime economy, with massive increases in military production, increases in manpower, and so on. He will quickly win the race to fully mobilize resources.
There is no such thing as a war time economy these days. There is little ability to surge any kind of production and Russia lacks both the means and money to accelerate production. Look over the past few years as those wonder weapons that are announced either never go into production or only in strictly limited amounts. The majority of Russia's Air Force flies somewhat modernized Flankers. The most common tank is a modernized T-72. Maybe you could get more small arms, but I'm sure Russia doesn't need that since it never throws anything away.
6. Putin cannot immediately take down the western financial system right now (which his hackers have the power to do), due to the concerns of the Chinese. Russia cannot be seen as the source of the coming financial crisis. The Chinese have to be able to blame the USA. For this reason, people in the western world still have a little bit of time to get their financial affairs in order. For example, I would start keeping paper bank statements and proof of payments on things like credit card bills and your mortgage.
I think you give Russia a bit too much credit. Would they try? Sure. But I don't think they could take down the major institutions.
7. This can, and will, spiral out of control. There are a host of scenarios that could widen the conflict, from Russian cyberattacks to Baltic/Polish involvement that the Russians don’t like. For example, Belarus’ Lukashenko has a grudge against Lithuania, what if he sent his own forces across that border in some punitive move. Or the Poles could decide that the territory the USSR took from them in 1939, which includes the area of Ukraine around Lviv (Polish Lvov), should be under them as the Ukraine falls apart.
I think Lukashenko understands his limitations. He's not going to attack a NATO member without the explicit backing of Uncle Vlad. And Poland has spent several decades now sucking up to Uncle Sam and won't do anything to jeopardize that. Poland has no wish to be outside NATO looking at the bear alone.
8. The Chinese are of course moving on their own agenda while Putin keeps everyone distracted. I think that they are currently hoping that Biden will send American troops to Europe, so that potential reinforcements to Asia are reduced.
Of course. They are playing a game of "Let's you and him fight."
9. NATOs largest military force is the Turkish army. I wouldn’t be surprised if Erdogan uses the coming chaos to decide to pull out of NATO and attack Greece. Other nonsense can be expected from most NATO members, as they move towards appeasement (Germany, Hungary, most of the minor countries). After all, they will say, Ukraine was under Russia for centuries.
This one I doubt. Erdogan is a mini dictator with delusions of grandeur, but he knows enough history to recall that Russia and Turkey have been opposed or at war for centuries. NATO membership prevents Putin from moving into Turkish territory. It also would cause friction in the case of a conflict with Greece. If Turkey leaves NATO, the full force of NATO would fall on him if he started something.
