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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4yXyUO4Xq8

Numerous posts moved into the Religion and Vaccine Arguments thread.

John wrote: Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:59 pm Numerous posts..

John, has anything changed regarding your thesis here of "all out" European War? Are you all in at this point, or do you not still think there's a chance for this to just be a projection of power with surgical striking and a Russian imperative (as they see it) to stop an encroaching NATO?

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJJ8zmcBH2A[/youtube]

Ukrainian woman confronts invading Russian soldier

** 26-Feb-2022 World View: European war

Cool Breeze wrote: Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:27 pm > John, has anything changed regarding your thesis here of "all out"
> European War? Are you all in at this point, or do you not still
> think there's a chance for this to just be a projection of power
> with surgical striking and a Russian imperative (as they see it)
> to stop an encroaching NATO?

First, I would point out that you have been proven wrong repeatedly
about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and you still seem to be under
a delusion when you use the word "surgical."

This war is only three days old. There are analysts on tv who are
hopeful that it will end in a few more days, but those analysts are
delusional, in my opinion. Russian bombs are attacking people's homes
and apartment buildings, and there are hundreds of thousands of
Ukrainians fleeing from Russian bombs into Nato countries -- Poland,
Romania, Slovakia, Hungary. Anyone who thinks this will end quickly
is dreaming.

Putin's speeches in the last week have not shown any signs of being
"surgical." Putin's speeches sound as insane and fanatical as
Hitler's did. It will not take much for the war to spread from
Ukraine to Nato.

-- Vladimir Putin / Address by the President of the Russian Federation
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828
(Kremlin, 21-Feb-2022)

-- Putin’s one-sided history of Ukraine’s relationship with Russia
https://www.politifact.com/article/2022 ... ationship/
(Politifact, 23-Feb-2022)

Cool Breeze wrote: Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:27 pm

John wrote: Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:59 pm Numerous posts..

John, has anything changed regarding your thesis here of "all out" European War? Are you all in at this point, or do you not still think there's a chance for this to just be a projection of power with surgical striking and a Russian imperative (as they see it) to stop an encroaching NATO?

If Russia is having a hard time with UKRAINE, how do you think they will stand up against NATO? Russia is finished.

thomasglee wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:52 am The best, most accurate, and to the point analysis of the issue in Ukraine. Most of you won't watch, and some of you will watch and deny the overall premise.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/U7wAdvOUtH0f/

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-crisis ... t-germany/

The best, most accurate, and to the point analysis of the issue in Ukraine.

James Corbett is none of these things. BTW I watched the video. Corbett spends half the video denying things that he has said in the past and has had people calling him out for it and responds indigently in much the same way that Dakardi, Thomas, and Cool Breeze do: Deny everything. Attack. Deny. Accuse. Attack. Deny. I see where you all get your debate strategy.

The video is worthless.

** 26-Feb-2022 World View: Emmanuel Macron

• France's President Emmanuel Macron

France's President Emmanuel Macron said today at France's annual
agriculture fair:

> "I can tell you one thing this morning it is that this
> war will last.

> This crisis will last, this war will last and all the crises that
> come with it will have lasting consequences. We must be prepared.

> War has returned to Europe, this was chosen unilaterally by
> President (Vladimir) Putin, with a tragic humanitarian situation,
> a (Ukrainian) people who are resisting and a Europe that is there
> and resisting by the side of the Ukrainian people."

*** Live updates: Macron warns that ‘this war will last’ on brief visit to Paris’ agriculture fair
https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20220226-l ... lture-fair

John wrote: Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:54 pm ** 26-Feb-2022 World View: European war

Cool Breeze wrote: Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:27 pm > John, has anything changed regarding your thesis here of "all out"
> European War? Are you all in at this point, or do you not still
> think there's a chance for this to just be a projection of power
> with surgical striking and a Russian imperative (as they see it)
> to stop an encroaching NATO?

First, I would point out that you have been proven wrong repeatedly
about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and you still seem to be under
a delusion when you use the word "surgical."

This war is only three days old. There are analysts on tv who are
hopeful that it will end in a few more days, but those analysts are
delusional, in my opinion. Russian bombs are attacking people's homes
and apartment buildings, and there are hundreds of thousands of
Ukrainians fleeing from Russian bombs into Nato countries -- Poland,
Romania, Slovakia, Hungary. Anyone who thinks this will end quickly
is dreaming.

Putin's speeches in the last week have not shown any signs of being
"surgical." Putin's speeches sound as insane and fanatical as
Hitler's did. It will not take much for the war to spread from
Ukraine to Nato.

-- Vladimir Putin / Address by the President of the Russian Federation
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828
(Kremlin, 21-Feb-2022)

-- Putin’s one-sided history of Ukraine’s relationship with Russia
https://www.politifact.com/article/2022 ... ationship/
(Politifact, 23-Feb-2022)

First off, war is the great “Pandora’s Box” of history. Once you open that box, by crossing borders with military forces, you have very little idea of how it is going to actually work out. I don’t think that any of Japan’s war planners, for example, thought that invading non-Manchuria China, or later sinking the US fleet in Pearl Harbor was going to result in the firebombings/nuclear destruction of every city in their nation.

In my studies and research on military history, things seemed to move, at the operational level, in four-day cycles. As John points out, we are just in the first few days of this. And the first point I would make, is that Pandora’s box has just been slightly cracked open.

Putin’s “Plan A”, if you will, was that Russia could just attack Ukrainian military assets, seize senior political leaders in the Ukraine (hence the ill-fated heliborne attack on the airfield to the NW of Kiev), put pressure on the Ukrainian Army, and Ukraine would fold. He could then install a puppet government, and then smooth things over with the west, kind of like he did after taking Crimea.

Putin’s message to his domestic audience has been that Ukraine is run by “pseudo-nazis” that are not supported by the bulk of Ukrainians, many of whom are ethnically Russian. And that these “pseudo-nazis” are pushing to get Ukraine into NATO, and that is part of NATO’s plot to undermine and ultimately destroy Russia.

So far, the Russian military is being extremely “nice” to Ukrainian civilians. They are not bombing/barraging urban areas, they are not shooting people that come up to them in the streets, they are even letting civilian cars drive past their convoys!

It is now blatantly obvious that people in Ukraine, including the vast majority of ethnic Russians, prefer to be Ukrainian. After all, even with all the problems Ukraine has, it is still a lot better off, and a lot “free-er” than Putin’s Russia.

So, Putin’s “Plan A” is now failing, and at the end of the first four-day cycle, things will start to change.

Putin has been holding back, and trying to minimize the intensity of the conflict, in the hopes that he can pacify the Ukrainian population and pacify the west once the puppet regime is put in place.

The odds of this happening are becoming more and more remote for Putin.

Now about Putin himself. He is a psychopath, meaning that he has absolutely no empathy for anyone except himself. He would, without any kind of remorse, see millions or even billions die if it meant what he perceives as a good outcome for himself. This war is about him creating some kind of “historical legacy” for himself, where he is lauded like Peter the Great or even Stalin, for generations to come, as the “Restorer of Russian pride and power”.

But Putin has now indeed opened “Pandora’s Box”, and “Plan A” is not working. Ukraine is not folding, and the Ukrainians don’t seem to want the Russians around (to say the least).

As Ukraine continues to defend itself, and as Putin comes to the realization that the west is never going to allow him to “smooth this over”, he will use increasingly drastic measures. If needs be, he will return Russia to Stalinist levels of control. He will end dissent by the most brutal of means. In addition, he will start to use the narrative that NATO is who is defending Ukraine, and that it is NATO supplying the ammunition, and NATO that is secretly supplying troops (how Baltic and Polish volunteers will be portrayed) and that he was right about Ukraine/NATO all along, and that Russia’s existential existence is at stake.

Some may think that demonstrations and wavering public support in Russia will cause Putin’s downfall. I don’t think so. Russia is not the West. Putin and his FSB/KGB cronies have been in power for decades, and they are not going to just walk away because people don’t like them. A good example of what they can and will do are the Iranian demonstrations years ago. The security people actually started shooting people. Russia has a history of going even further, and dissent won’t last long, especially once the Putin crowd have figured out that the west will never forgive them.

Militarily, the war will go from being “surgical” to being all out. Look up a picture of Kharkov or Kiev from WW2, and you will see what “all out” means.

While Chechnya held out against the Russian Army, there are two reasons for this. First is that the Chechen war was started, and prolongation needed, by the FSB/KGB in order to oust Yeltsin and install Putin. Second is that Russia did not want to overly antagonize the west (which is what would happen if they did what I am about to describe).

Here is how defiant urban areas could ultimately be handled: Surround the city and cut off food, power, and do what you can to cut off water and sanitation. If you have to, use gas, the civilians have no protection, and I would gather the Ukrainian military his little. The city will starve/surrender. The inhabitants are not allowed to return to their homes (where they may have stockpiled weapons). They are sent elsewhere.

As I pointed out in another thread, Russia could actually get away with using nukes in Ukraine, but Putin would really have to have lost all hope of a possible future reconciliation with the west to do this, and the military situation would need to be pretty dire. It is nowhere near that point now.

As for this ending because Russia is going to “run out of money” or the Russian economy “can’t support this”, I would say “what money did Stalin have?”. Russia, without Ukraine, the Baltics or Belarus was able to fight the German armies to a standstill and then push them back to Berlin.

Russia was able to do this by completely militarizing its population and economy.

I believe that ultimately, after about 3-4 years of draconian measures and military reverses, the Russian military will end things and remove Putin and his cronies, but not before we go through a very difficult time. A time that will include widespread war in Europe as the shell that is NATO is ultimately exposed.

Navigator wrote: Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:25 pmNow about Putin himself. He is a psychopath, meaning that he has absolutely no empathy for anyone except himself. He would, without any kind of remorse, see millions or even billions die if it meant what he perceives as a good outcome for himself. This war is about him creating some kind of “historical legacy” for himself, where he is lauded like Peter the Great or even Stalin, for generations to come, as the “Restorer of Russian pride and power”.

I prefer to compare him to Genghis Kahn, Napoleon and Hitler. They thought that by using military power they could increase their wealth and influence. Well, Genghis did, but the other two? Did they instead lose all they had? In the meanwhile, they made a mess out of Russia. Nukes, proxy war, insurgent war and sanctions are supposed to make military conflict not cost effective. I guess we will find out if they have. Will Putin be a "Restorer of Russian pride and power", or the latest to not see that times have changed.