Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Shark week, and yes we remember turning blue mountain here also. The one who bought that nice house on a synethic trade.

One day this "hedge" will come to epitomize the "recovery", for it contains all the elements of everything that is wrong with postponing the inevitable.
If memory serves, at the time JPM had assets of $1.1 trillion and loans of $700 billion. Given that as a Primary Dealer, JPM is a transmission entity for QE, their asset surplus of $400 billion suggests that what QE was ostensibly intended to address (liquidity) wasn't exactly the problem that needed addressing, which further explains why QE hasn't done much beyond stuffing Ferrari's order book and making for a grand party season or three in the Hamptons.
To continue, this $400 asset surplus begged for a "cash management" regimen, which means it became fuel for the prop traders. Call it a hedge or cash management, depending on what entities are chasing them post facto, doesn't take away from the fact that JPM became half or more of a market in an esoteric synthetic derivative, that is, an instrument created for the sole purpose of allowing a semi-public arena for prop desks and hedge funds to battle each other, serving the greater good not at all. Cash management using a synthetic 10-year instrument?
Those looking for a scalp might also want to ask how this incident might encourage responsible authorities (if that is not an oxymoron) to question the efficacy and need for the Fed's QE, and also question if it serves the public good to allow an entity that holds upwards of 9% of all US bank deposits to gamble with its peers in a foreign jurisdiction with said deposits. Ancillary issues, which might have produced great theater, would have been if Congresspeople holding public hearings had popped a surprise question to Jamie Dimon asking him to explain what exactly the CDX IG9 is, and how it was relevant to JPM's asset-over-loan surplus. There would have been no better argument for ending TBTF than to watch a CEO hem and haw, stutter and drool, trying to explain and justify something he doesn't begin to understand, yet expects taxpayer back-up in the event something sometime goes horribly wrong.
A subplot is the redemption of Boaz Weinstein, once a hero, and then a goat at Deustche Bank, who became a hero yet again by taking---along with Blue Mountain and a few others---the other side of the trade that became the London Gang Bang. They were all like mythic (and ultimately useless) Greek or Nordic gods doing celestial battle, and like the gods, we would do well to be done with them one and all. ty c

reviresco » Sun Nov 13, 2011 4:03 pm Just a brief note expressing support for the FDIC not insuring anything other than actual deposits at America's banks.

As we noted low hanging fruit allowed a long time ago. Emptor, its still broken...

Perfume does not save you in the end.

Le secret des grandes fortunes sans cause apparente est un crime oublié, parce qu'il a été proprement fait
Honoré de Balzac, Le Père Goriot (1835)

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/world ... government

http://thechinachronicle.com/kangbashi- ... mes-alive/

If you build it they will collateralize the debt obligation and sell it in the derivative market.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-0 ... ing?page=1
China doesn't have the money to pay the workers for that.
The construction sector in China was booming due to corruption and an easy way for corrupt officials to give building contracts to their brothers, cousins, nephews and so on.
The corrupt government official funneled the building capital with cheap credit straight through to the family's business account.
The profits are being spent lavishly and most of that money which ended up in CA, OR, WA, BC is from those corrupt business transactions. The cash was flowing into corrupt hands, got transfered to North America to buy real estate here and drive prices into the stratosphere.
Now the Chinese are exposed and the HAM (Hot Asian Money) trail has dried up.
Real estate prices along the Pacific Rim will fall hard when a) Chinese aren't buying and b) Chinese start liquidating
No mortgages all windy cash deals. They will take a 50% loss just to get whatever the market (our own economy) is willing and able to afford / finance.

t

Update:

According to a recent analysis by the Pew Institute, since 2007 when there were a record 4,316,233 births, the number of births has been steadily declining, with 4,007,000 births in 2012 - the lowest number since 1998.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... overy.html


Info posted last year:

Higgenbotham wrote:

Indeed, total births in the USA peaked at 4,316,000 in 2007, before dropping in the last four years. Recently released provisional birth data by the CDC (Center for Disease Control) show that births in 2011 are preliminarily estimated to be 3,961,000, the lowest figure since 1999.

This is a reduction of 8.2%.

Looking at the previous peaks in numbers of births, the years where the reductions are closest to 8.2% are:

1961 4,268,326 peak not exceeded until 2007
1964 4,027,490 down 5.6%
1965 3,760,358 down 11.9%

1921 3,055,000 peak not exceeded until 1947
1926 2,839,000 down 7.1%
1927 2,802,000 down 8.3%

This data is taken from a printout of the table:
Table 1-1 Live Births, Birth Rates, and Fertility Rates, by Race: United States, 1909-99

One small detail. Regarding whether the absolute peak was 1957 or 1961, the 1957 births were adjusted to 4,300,000 in the table due to underregistration. I used the unadjusted numbers, which shows the peak to be 1961, but in any case they are very close.

Part of the point in showing this is that there is nothing abnormal in the recent reductions in US births compared to previous cycles. On the other hand, the failure of US births to exceed the previous peak in 1961 by a wide margin is unprecedented.

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... ker#p12304

Trevor wrote:Feb 05, 2012
In terms of economics, what I'm truly concerned about is Italy.

Italy on the brink: the hidden story of the 2011 near-collapse and analogies with today
Posted on July 29, 2013 by Eurocrisis in the Press
by Fabrizio Goria

The difficult position of Italy in the on going Euro Crisis has already been highlighted in our blog in contrast to the surprisingly limited coverage that the international press has dedicated to the country. Today, we are glad to host Fabrizio Goria, financial journalist for the online newspaper Linkiesta.it, with a piece on the hidden story of the 2011 near-collapse of the Italian financial system and a political analysis of the current situation. The post was originally published in Italian by Linkiesta, English translation by Roberto Orsi .

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/eurocrisispress/ ... ith-today/

http://theconversation.com/smile-face-r ... kers-16262

http://www.npr.org/blogs/alltechconside ... ded-powers

Education is obsolete if you control the past.

http://www.businessinsider.com/nsa-firi ... z2bQzMj0EE
"The NSA Intends To Fire 90% Of Their System Administrators To Eliminate Future Leaks"
I wish I could make this stuff up.
But to my fellow Nerd Herd in NSA. You are about to be betrayed. c
http://bostonherald.com/inside_track/in ... _time_tees classic

This is moving into a Noske moment some may sugest. The consent of the people is the issue in the republic.
The senate know this as they have alluded to as 10 years behind and we know its twenty since many try to be polite.

http://www.pressherald.com/business/ins ... obile&id=4

https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for- ... e/art1.pdf

In our country (the former U.S.S.R.) the lie has become not just a moral category, but a pillar of the State.’
Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn ------ be that guy who reads his work as we have done already.
==================================================================================
Instead, the yen's rise seems more linked to the stock market, where a statistically significant inverse correlation exists. Consider that over the past month, the Nikkei was off around 6%, but the yen appreciated by about 5% against the dollar, suggesting some investors likely found hedging to be disadvantageous.
The main report of the week is the first estimate of Q2 GDP early Monday in Tokyo. The consensus forecast is for a 0.9% quarterly expansion, and 3.8% annualized. This contrasts with 1.0% and 4.1% respectively in Q1. There is some concern that the economy is lost some momentum at the end of Q2 and early Q3. t

Norway - the flat, and EU shoud peak this week mid of the 14th is going to test this view anyway. Thes should slip into your window H. Indicators are double top and diverging bullish percent over call put ratios. No need to mention sell into it and we will see one way or the other as you noted on this. Getting to the next window as you mentioned so it appears. I have cut my bid sheet down.... RATM

http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/franc ... ei_en.html

In the parable of the sower, Saint Luke has left us these words of the Lord about the "good soil": "These are the ones who when they hear the word, hold it fast in an honest and good heart, and bear fruit with patient endurance"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-set ... 50221.html somebody has a brain unlike the westards.
How corupt it is over there no idea but we posted two views on building over there that was utilized and another utterly barren.
Really hard to grasp the so called unabashed view and the bashing view on the recently launched 10 year gosplan over there.

So confronted, the candidate must either bark with the pack or be lost... All the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum. The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."

H.L. Mencken, Baltimore Sun, 1920

Plato and his cavemen applies. Just like as we seen with the Andropov plan, the local beast will evolve so they wish to think.

Meanwhile as a taxpayer since the mid eightys we knew the game and remember since 1975 the meme us like them now and we did not like it.

Anyway enjoy your Met D burly boys: Tue Jun 02, 2009 6:08 pm
Nationwide, there are factories and joint ventures with at least 11 foreign automakers, including General Motors, which opened a $300 million plant near St. Petersburg in November. In general, then-President Vladimir Putin set the stage for this politically driven historical bias when he referred to the collapse of the Soviet Union as the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century." Regarding questions of history, it seems that Medvedev is dutifully following in Putin's footsteps. And this once again demonstrates who is really calling the shots in the country. You just got to love the Moscow press. All spectrum's of Government to date are the same over sized and over confident China included. These events are going to bite them in the ass sooner or later. As stated fixed capital until October...
http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/600/42/377681.htm
Nissan is the third carmaker to build a plant in St. Petersburg after Toyota and Ford, prompting Matviyenko to declare at the ceremony that the city had built a copy of Detroit. Think about that Taxpayer before the libtards give it all away.

I miss OLD since he had a clarity from my 1974 view posted to what was then.

All political ideas or ideals have a logical fallacy in common, they all assume something is perfect or perfectable. This may or may not be stated openly, but the assumption is always there. It is not possible to govern an imperfect country filled with imperfect people in an imperfect world from such an idealistic standpoint. Whenever the practical is forced to submit to ideology, then the people and the state both suffer. And that's where we are now.

We will move ahead and leave them behind since all politics is local and the veil they choose is there own....

http://www.gata.org/files/gibson.pdf
wax on, wax off - The ROC and LOG function indicates nominal targeting and ccpi is just another latency bias effect, as always.
Rope burn for paper tigers, delivery for the long term thinkers. Between the seams I will look for value now and simply wait.

https://sutodoreh.wordpress.com/2012/07 ... s-paradox/

Last week, Singh chose Rajan to be the next governor of the Reserve Bank of India, to replace the outgoing chief, Duvvuri Subbarao, on September 4.
http://gdxforum.com/forum/search.php?keywords=Rajan+
In a world of fairness and accountability, there would have been a bidding war for Rajan’s services. As it is, India’s central bank will get a guy who saw the global financial crisis before the fact, whereas Obama’s shortlist consists only of folks who’ve been blinded by the spectacularly flawed models of mainstream economic theory.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-1 ... -frontrunn

fishheads

The stagflation phase (and the overall integrative trend) is succeeded by a general crisis. Whereas expansion grades smoothly into stagnation, the transition between stagflation and crisis is often (but not always) abrupt. Discrete events signaling the arrival of crisis can be pandemics, extreme episodes of famine, or state collapse followed by intense civil war (or any such events in various combinations). The crisis phase in our terminology is not a discrete, brief event (which is one meaning of the word crisis), but an extended period that can last for one or more human generations. The decline of population numbers during crisis results in a situation when per capita resources become plentiful. However, this does not necessarily end the disintegrative trend, because there are usually too many elites and elite aspirants. The intraelite conflict continues to generate internal instability. Thus, the crisis grades smoothly into a depression phase, characterized be endemic civil warfare. Population may grow during the intervals between intense civil wars, but such increases typically do not last, and are followed by declines (although not as a catastrophic as those typical of the crisis phase). The depression phase ends when the ranks of elites are pruned by internal conflict to the point where the disintegrative trend can reverse itself, and a new secular cycle begin. Alternatively, if no functioning state can get going, then the depression phase grades smoothly into an intercycle of indeterminate length.

http://www.eeb.uconn.edu/people/turchin/PDF/All_SEC.pdf

Iris should fire Larry. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v4 ... 4424b.html
All of this cabal should be exempt from government if you follow the logic. Even the acedemics
who devised the complex admitted the flaw.

A former quantitative analyst at Harvard Management Company, the university’s once-vaunted endowment manager, tells the Harvard Crimson she was fired for voicing concern to then-university president Larry Summers’ chief of staff about the money manager’s risky use of derivatives the traders didn’t understand. The episode dates back to 2002, when analyst Iris Mack, whose website identifies her as the second African American woman to earn a Harvard PhD. in applied math (and someone who likes primary colors) joined the much-venerated Harvard Management Company, which invests the university’s then $18 billion endowment, to find what she termed a “frightening” state of affairs.

I would hire Mack and Born for a year as a joint internal FED commission with Yellon to flush the stables. Poetic Justice and as noted
the left coast is taking over the swamp anyway from the right coast if you follow the tech money who can read your computer with a drone.

The FEDS dumped over forty thousand in detroit from the war and this retard wants to expand detroit. I got a clue for you we already have been looted
from our districts genuis and crawling to solvency and local growth. http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/08/ ... nt_ya.html
These people are simply inept and worship the keynasian veil it appears. Does any one remember Coleman Young. We had a man in public stand up and say I spent my whole life getting away from them. And you want to bring it here? He was right. It never was about people but ideas written with crayons. This is a older topic than even the article can cover. I will be blunt that when the Lebonese came in the eightys you robbed a store and the next door shop keeper would unload both barrols of buck shot in them. After a few times the crime stopped since the Police figured out no witnesses came forward. Nobody today has the backbone to admit what it was like. I heard the report some Syrians need to a home. Only if you supply then with a double barrol shot gun and a backbone to admit the truth of what it took to restore order to protect the citizens. The rest is rhetoric and nonsense from parasites. As they said lately if you get shot its in the face. These liberal crack pots are hustlers and parasites. Yes we need millage and order.
We have night armed bicycle police patrols and minors are picked up no exceptions and parents called to sort it out. It works.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/35 ... nley-kurtz