OLD1953 wrote:I'm not surprised to see variations in tax refunds the year before a large change in tax policy is expected, that's common for those with the money and accounting power to shift things to take advantage of breaks/credits set to expire. The company I work for cashed in a large number that were set to expire a few years back, they not only paid zero tax, they got a big check from the treasury. That's the system, and yes, it needs to be reformed. Even just a statement that refunds paid in the case of zero tax paid in would never be allowed to exceed a million dollars would help check the abuses. John, I'm going to have to look up comparisions between data before and after the Bush tax cuts went into effect. I think the cuts had more effect that you are seeing.
Lily, you need to set your sarcasm detector a bit higher on my posts, when I said nobody needed unemployment, I was being sarcastic, though the extensions have gotten out of hand. However, Social Security isn't part of the general fund, I know a lot of pundits like to claim it is, but you'll have to show me something from either the treasury or SSA that says it is for me to think I'm that far in error.
As for oil and agriculture - yes, it's a risk, big money and big politics are both against doing anything about it, and I just don't see any purpose to beating a dead horse over and over. I have things I've done in case of trouble in that area, I don't see much point in discussing these items, everyone has different skills and abilities, we all live in different areas with different circumstances, and there is no "one size fits all" for emergency preparations. The preparation for someone in rural Kansas has little relation to the preparations for someone in Louisville, KY, and neither relates well to LA or NYC. Example of this, I'm a skilled bee keeper, have kept bees for decades, and know their habits and entomology intimately. I was the first to identify the invasion of small hive beetle into Tennessese, with samples sent to both the lab at UT East and the State Apiarist and confirmation from both. Few people have that skill, it's uncommon and I've found it fairly difficult to teach. Of course that factors into what and how I'd do things, and it's utterly irrelevant to discussions here, except when colony collapse and the subsequent effect on agriculture and financial matters is under discussion. Length of emergency is something you seldom hear discussed, and that's critical to planning - there's this assumption that "it's forever" and that is unlikely.
A very important thing to keep in mind when reading any paper based on forecasts is dating. Forecasting is always inexact and refinements make anything based on obsolete forecasts irrelevant. The paper you cited for extreme cycles was dated 2003, the forecasts for wetter weather were shown to be inadequate in 2006, and the models have been adjusted to show damper climate. Plus, it admits in the beginning of that paper that it's taking the extreme and unlikely case from the older, drier forecasts. So it's dated to the point of being irrelevant. General Semantics makes an especial point of dating in relation to refinements of science and other data, and studying GS is a major aid in filtering information, a necessity in this age of information overload. While I did enjoy "Science and Sanity: An Introduction to Non-Aristotelian Systems and General Semantics by Alfred Korzybski", it's a bit much for many as it's the basis for a science that was new in the early half of the last century, "Drive yourself Sane" by Kodish and Kodish or "Language in Thought and Action: Fifth Edition by S. I. Hayakawa, Alan R. Hayakawa and Robert MacNeil" might be an easier introduction. And yes, that last was by Senator Hayakawa, his degree was in GS.
Yes, it sounds odd to say that only 18% of the land in the US is "arable", but it's pretty accurate. A lot of land area is in rivers or lakes or impoundments, a lot is mountains, and a good bit is desert. Some of that 18% they count I'd call marginal, as that includes some dry land farms in Colorado that aren't always productive without irrigation. Now I have been tinkering with a design for a indoor grower, that would essentially put 24 or 36 of those square foot gardening plots into a carefully lighted and possibly warmed box much like a large bureau with slide out drawers for harvest and gathering - three or so of those would allow an apartment dweller to grow much of their own food, depending on design details. Somebody (maybe here) mentioned that such a thing had been designed but never put into production, and that started me thinking about it. If you aren't familiar with the square foot system :
http://www.mygardenguide.net/square-foot-gardening.html Just imagine a two plot wide by 3 long a foot or foot and a half high drawer, with really good steel rollers on the sides for slide out, correct spectrum high efficiency diode lighting with the corrected spectrum for rapid plant growth and misting sprayers connected to small pumps and all on timers, you'll have the idea. 15 watts per sq ft seems to be in the right range for LOW light plants, 30 is right for HIGH light plants, generally. And flowering plants need red spectrum as well, you'll note that most LED lights have that included because most grow plants in apartments for pretty, not food. With increasing food costs, a box that uses the same amount of power as a refrigerator but produces your salads and perhaps other veggies (turnips, beets, collards, kohlrabi - the shorter plants) would be a popular gimmick, IMHO. Yes, it's possible to face the back to a window for natural light by using a windowed back, but how many ppl will put something like that in front of a window? It would beat the dickens out of pots or window boxes.
I really don't think the US will invade Iran sans harsh provocation, but that's just opinion, always subject to check by reality.