Generational Dynamics World View News

[Guest]

Russian wheat exports:

21.5% Turkey
19.9% Egypt
8.2% Bangladesh
4% Azerbaijan
3.2% Sudan
3% Yemen
2.8 Nigeria
2.3% UAE
1.7% Latvia
1.7% Vietnam

2019

[Guest Prepper]

As much as I like reading all the speculation here, I am a realist. If you are like my family, we already can barely afford the price of gas and food. The price of fuel is a major indicator that the price of food will soon become outrageous.

Stock up on food. Shoot for having at least one month's worth in the beginning. Then set your sights on 3 months and so on. Here are some foods that have not increased too much yet (at least where I shop, your area may be different): cans of beans, ramen noodles, jiffy cornbread and muffins, hot dogs, peanut butter, store brand sugar & flour, oats, popcorn, cans of tuna, cans of fruits & veggies, cans of tomatoes & sauce, pasta, boxes of mac & cheese, store brand evaporated milk, brown & serve sausages, tea bags, potatoes - fresh, and boxed, dry gravy mixes, cans of soup, use coupons, when something is on sale by extra. As you walk through your store take note of the shelf items up high and down low, they are usually the cheaper items.

Pour a can of pork & beans into a casserole dish, slice hot dogs into it, mix up the jiffy cornbread and spread it on top. Bake at 400 degrees for about 15 to 20 minutes until the cornbread is done. Feeds 4 to 6 people. Current price, about $3.00, future price could be **$10.00** or more very soon.

Buy an extra dozen eggs. Whisk two together in a bowl and pour into a small zipper baggie. Squeeze the air out and zip. Freeze the bags. They will be good for 6 months to 1 year. When eggs are $15 a dozen, you will have eggs to cook with. Thaw them in the refrigerator.

My dog is spoiled rotten and turns his nose up at dry food. But I'm willing to bet he'll eat it if that's all there is. Buy large bags of dry dog and cat food.

Stock up on personal hygiene items. Buy some cheap shampoo, soap, razors, feminine hygiene, laundry detergent, bleach, etc. and put them aside. You will thank yourself when these items are no longer available.

Look up how to make and use a solar oven. Stock up on briquettes or propane and cook the whole meal on the grill.

Trust me, if I can grow these, you can too. It's almost spring, plan a garden. Tomatoes, potatoes, chives, strawberries, green beans and aloe vera. Every little bit helps.

Fill your gas tank up and top it off when it goes down to a quarter full. If you have to drive a lot, this won't help but if you don't have to drive a lot it will. Do all your errands in one run.

Prepare for brown outs. Adjust your use of electricity to off peak hours.

These are just some ideas to get you started. Don't kid yourself, it's about to get very ugly.

[Guest]

These are just some ideas to get you started. Don't kid yourself, it's about to get very ugly.

Leave the cities.

[thomasglee]

As much as I like reading all the speculation here, I am a realist. If you are like my family, we already can barely afford the price of gas and food. The price of fuel is a major indicator that the price of food will soon become outrageous.

Stock up on food. Shoot for having at least one month's worth in the beginning. Then set your sights on 3 months and so on. Here are some foods that have not increased too much yet (at least where I shop, your area may be different): cans of beans, ramen noodles, jiffy cornbread and muffins, hot dogs, peanut butter, store brand sugar & flour, oats, popcorn, cans of tuna, cans of fruits & veggies, cans of tomatoes & sauce, pasta, boxes of mac & cheese, store brand evaporated milk, brown & serve sausages, tea bags, potatoes - fresh, and boxed, dry gravy mixes, cans of soup, use coupons, when something is on sale by extra. As you walk through your store take note of the shelf items up high and down low, they are usually the cheaper items.

Pour a can of pork & beans into a casserole dish, slice hot dogs into it, mix up the jiffy cornbread and spread it on top. Bake at 400 degrees for about 15 to 20 minutes until the cornbread is done. Feeds 4 to 6 people. Current price, about $3.00, future price could be **$10.00** or more very soon.

Buy an extra dozen eggs. Whisk two together in a bowl and pour into a small zipper baggie. Squeeze the air out and zip. Freeze the bags. They will be good for 6 months to 1 year. When eggs are $15 a dozen, you will have eggs to cook with. Thaw them in the refrigerator.

My dog is spoiled rotten and turns his nose up at dry food. But I'm willing to bet he'll eat it if that's all there is. Buy large bags of dry dog and cat food.

Stock up on personal hygiene items. Buy some cheap shampoo, soap, razors, feminine hygiene, laundry detergent, bleach, etc. and put them aside. You will thank yourself when these items are no longer available.

Look up how to make and use a solar oven. Stock up on briquettes or propane and cook the whole meal on the grill.

Trust me, if I can grow these, you can too. It's almost spring, plan a garden. Tomatoes, potatoes, chives, strawberries, green beans and aloe vera. Every little bit helps.

Fill your gas tank up and top it off when it goes down to a quarter full. If you have to drive a lot, this won't help but if you don't have to drive a lot it will. Do all your errands in one run.

Prepare for brown outs. Adjust your use of electricity to off peak hours.

These are just some ideas to get you started. Don't kid yourself, it's about to get very ugly.

If you're able, get a generator and instead of buying meat at the grocery, go buy yourself a whole hog or a half a cow at a butcher shop. Over the past week my family purchased a whole hog (yield - 262 pounds) and half a steer (yield -336 pounds). We paid about $1.52 pound for the hog meat and about $4.44 a pound for the steer. We've also have our starter plants going for our garden and set up a small grow area in our garage for micro-greens. As the OP states, buy can goods and other staples as well. My wife is an avid canner and dehydrator, so we are stocking up as much as we can. Next on my list is a wood stove.

[Guest]

So it's nuclear war?

[utahbob]

I did not write this but in my opinon is pretty spot on eloquently written. It is from Tom Cooper, an Australian historian, writer, and analyst:

Some know me as ‘confrontational’ and ‘undiplomatic’. Thus, a sort of ‘warning’, up front: this is definitely going to (re)inforce such an impression.
I grew up at the times the motto ‘know your enemy’ was in high esteem in numerous armed forces, no matter where. At the time when, for example, the discipline of researching the Soviet Armed Forces was taken very seriously, and people involved knew what were they talking about: so much so, they could literally ‘read the minds’ of decision-makers in Moscow and few other places.
Now, my point of view was that a World War III is unlikely to ever happen, because there was enough rationale in the East and the West, and thus nobody would risk the ‘ultimate option’. So, ‘why waste time’ studying, for example, the Soviets? Still, I was fascinated by ‘know your enemy’ kind of works, and thus ‘spent’ much of my professional career studying what some consider ‘obscure’ or ‘small’ air forces; and others for ‘enemy’ – especially so in the Middle East and Africa. It’s only more recently – say: 7-8 years – that I’ve ‘added’ the modern-day Russian armed forces to what’s interesting for me, and then primarily because of the Russian military intervention in Syria.
What surprised me when ‘returning’ to something I ceased studying around the time people like Benjamin Lamberth, Bill Sweetman and few others have ceased publishing their books (‘back in the 1990s or so’) was that it seems that over the last 30 years, the skill of ‘know your enemy’ has been misdeclared into ‘support for jihadism’, while understanding of the Russian armed forces appears to have degenerated into oblivion. This became obvious not only ‘already’ during the first two years of the Russian military intervention in Syria (2015-2017), but even more so since the Russian (re)invasion of Ukraine, on 24 February 22. Ever since, most of notable think-tanks and their experts seem to be falling over each other in an entirely new Olympic discipline: how to mis-understand and mis-explain the Russian Armed Forces, and the Russian Air-Space Force in particular.
What is particularly astonishing in this regards: back in 2016, the Foreign Military Studies Office of the US Army, published the book ‘The Russian Way of War: Force Structure, Tactics, and Modernisation of the Russian Ground Forces’, by Lester W. Grau and Charles K. Bartles.
The book is available as a free download (as PDF) for years already. I.e. everybody can have it. Just go to this link: https://www.armyupress.army.mil/.../2017-07-the-russian... – download, read, and inform yourself.
Sure, Grau and Bartles concentrated on the ground forces. But, they explained so much and so well about the structure, thinking, practices, doctrine, strategy and tactics of the entire Russian armed forces that I simply can’t believe anybody is still coming to the idea to write anything about the ‘Russian military’ – without, first, reading their book and, second, keeping it in mind all the time.
And still: this is the case – and so we get to hear how the Russian Air-Space Force (VKS) is a ‘non-appearance’ in this war, how it ‘can’t own the skies’ over Ukraine, indeed, that it is ‘incapable of running complex operations’.
Those who follow me since longer than 3-4 days should know better: should know that the VKS is no ‘USAF East’. As explained earlier, the VKS is simply never meant to fight the way Western air forces do.
As nicely explained by Grau and Bartles, and confirmed in reality only some 17-18 zillion of times, in Russia, there is only one authority that’s thinking what are future wars going to look like, and – therefore – how should it organise, equip, and train the Russian armed forces. This authority is the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Short: GenStab. Because of its task, the GenStab is also the sole military procurement authority in Russia: it is responsible for the purchase of everything, from screws, via fighter jets, to intercontinental ballstic missiles and their nuclear warheads.
To keep it compressed, the GenStab considers the VKS for something like ‘extended range artillery’: a branch meant to cover tasks from provision of close air support, to interdiction strikes up to around 100, perhaps 150km behind the frontline. For this reason, the VKS has a purely supportive role, through and through: it is meant to – and equipped to - establish air superiority only over the frontlines, and then support ground or naval forces. Strikes deep into the enemy-controlled territory are a business of missile forces, and forces equipped with cruise missiles. Search and destroy enemy air defences (SEAD)? Yes, but along the frontline only. Therefore, and even if operating such ‘powerful, super-turbo-Wunderwaffen’ like Su-27SM, Su-30SM, Su-34 and Su-35s, the VKS is simply not equipped to ‘go places’, ‘rule the skies’, ‘dominate’ etc. into the depth of the enemy territory. Not away from the frontline.
When somebody not knowing about this now tries to monitor the VKS operations in Ukraine from the Western standpoint, plenty of things are incomprehensible and wrong conclusions simply unavoidable. What the Russians are doing there is contrary to the very essence of the Western – and especially: US – thinking, where the air power is dominating: much to disgust of its own ground forces, it is frequently fighting ‘its own war’. It first seeks to establish air superiority over the enemy, destroy its air power and the capability to defend itself from air power, and only then supports own ground troops or naval forces.
If the VKS then does not behave that way, ‘logical conclusion’ is ‘it failed’ and ‘can’t’.
Actually, the VKS is doing its job very well. It rules the skies – above the frontline. As the sustained losses of the Ukrainian Air Force over the last 13 days have shown: whenever Ukrainian Su-25s try to hit the Russian ground forces, they are shot down. Whether by VKS interceptors, or by ground-based air defences. Presence of ‘heavy’ Ukrainian air defences near the frontline is minimal. In turn, the VKS is all the time flying – ‘BUT’ over the battlefield. Between seven and eight of its aircraft are airborne over the Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol areas all the time during the daylight, every single day ever since 24 February. As predicted, the sky there is really ‘black’ of all the VKS aircraft. This is a co-reason why are they suffering losses to the Ukrainian ground-based air defences, too: they are present so much and so often, that the Ukrainians can recognise patterns in operational behaviour of Russian pilots and ‘ambush’ them.
(The other co-reason is that the Ukrainians have got so many MANPADs from the West, they’re firing them by dozens, every day. There are several videos showing them firing 6-8 missiles at one target: we only get such scenes much too rarely to see, and even less so would the Ukrainians brag how often they miss.)
Contrary to the claims of the Ukrainian politicians, the VKS pilots also do not refuse to fly: they go as far as to do things Western pilots would rarely do. Like such a dumb idea to descend below the cloud cover in order to acquire a target and bomb it – only to get shot down by 5-6 MANPADs fired in return.
All of this means that conclusions like ‘VKS is not flying’, ‘VKS can’t run complex operations’ etc. are all wrong. By all the (meanwhile: ‘proven’) military incompetence of Putin, Shoygu, Gerasimov, even the officers of the GenStab, not to talk about numerous of Russian generals in the field, the VKS is fulfilling precisely the duty for which it was equipped and trained – all along the doctrine developed by the GenStab.
This are the ‘Reasons No. 1-100’ of why we’re never going to see VKS’ Su-34s roaming the skies of Ukraine all the way to the Romanian border, using R-77s to shot down Ukrainian Su-27s, while deploying PGMs to precisely destroy MiG-29s or Su-25s on the ground, and yet other PGMs to knock-out Ukrainian air defences - free along the motto: like in a video-game...
Talking about VKS and PGMs: Colonel Andrew J Bachevich (US Army, ret.) – one of less than a handful of sober, balanced, and serious military historians left in the USA - has explained it in his TV-appearances already years ago. When invading Ukraine, in 2014, Russia lost the control and contact to about 120 major arms-manufacturing enterprises – including about 50 manufacturing the host of PGMs in the VKS service. Ever since, the GenStab did try to re-establish some of production at home, but this was largely spoiled – both because of the endemic corruption of the Putin-regime, and because of resulting sanctions, which cut off Russia from approach to the necessary know-how and high-tech.
‘What a surprise’ then, that Russia can’t run large-scale production of PGMs, that the few that are available are either from stocks manufactured back in the 1980s and early 1990s or astronomically expensive and thus not affordable for the GenStab; or that the VKS never got enough money to buy new PGMs, and thus has next to none to deploy in combat operations. Indeed, that it has to send its Sukhois with a price tag of US$40-50 million apiece into low-altitude strikes armed with ‘dumb’ bombs.
Bottom line: stop trying to understand and explain the VKS by Western – especially US – way of thinking. If you want to understand and explain it, you need to see it entirely from the Russian point of view, and also to consider plenty of factors that are anything else than ‘directly related to air power’. I simply can’t but repeat myself: keep the big picture in mind.

[utahbob]

Here is Tom Cooper’s take on the last 24 hours in an operational analysis mode:
Good morning everybody!
Here my summary for the last 24-36 hours (8 Mar 22).
CAA - Combined Arms Army (Russia)
BTG - Battalion Tactical Group (Russia)
GTA - Guards Tank Army (Russia)
GTD - Guards Tank Division (Russia)
IFV - infantry fighting vehicle
LOC - Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass region)
MBT - main battle tank
MRB - Motorized Rifle Brigade (throw a G in the front if Guards)
MRD - Motorized Rifle Division (ditto for the G for Guards). Majority of the Russian Ground Forces are Motorized Rifle (i.e. Mechanized Infantry with supporting tanks)
RFA – Russian Federation Army/Russian Armed Forces
RF-9xxxx - Russian military aviation registration
UCAV – unmanned combat aerial vehicle
VDV - Vozdushno-desantnye voyska (Russian Airborne forces)
VKS - Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space Force, Russia)
West OSK – Western Military District, RFA
STRATEGIC
I’m slowly getting tired of US-Polish quarrel over delivery of MiG-29s to Ukraine. First the populist idiots in charge in Warsaw announced they’re ready to immediately transfer all of Polish MiGs to the Ramstein AFB (major US air base in Germany), then the Pentagon – mind: the Pentagon, not the State Department (then, contrary to what you’ve been said, it’s the Pentagon that’s running the US foreign policy) – said, ‘we do not know what are you talking about’.
Actually this was supposed to be run in clandestine fashion. The MiGs were simply to ‘disappear’ and get replaced by second-hand F-16s from the USA. And that’s it. ‘Plausible denial’. …BUT, idiotic populist politicians can’t keep anything clandestine – because it’s in their interest to score propaganda points: yeah, lets provoke a WWIII so some populist there can maintain himself in power...
Whatever… few advices for those who like to follow ‘bang stuff’:
- For an excellent overview of what has the West supplied to Ukraine in the last two weeks, check this link:
https://www.overtdefense.com/.../rundown-western-anti...
- For a one-by-one review of all visually confirmed losses in vehicles and aircraft so far, follow the Oryx blog:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/.../attack-on-europe...
The latter is useful because its indicative of the ‘win-loss’ ratio being something like 3.5-to-1 for the Ukrainians – at least in vehicles. Considering all the catastrophic heliborne assaults by the Russian VDV and Chechens, it’s perfectly possible that it’s even higher in terms of human losses (not when one adds Ukrainian civilians, though….BTW, the number of those fleeing into the EU has surpassed 2 million, yesterday).
PERSONAL NOTE
Since all my pleas to stop asking me for 'friends' have failed (the counter is past 5000 since 5 days), and I'm still getting 150-200 requests a day, I'm now including it here: if you can, just click on 'follow', please. Right now, I've got no time to find an alternative solution.
NORTH
‘The Russians are back‘. Now the 35th CAA is pushing with infantry from the west: over the last two days this has infiltrated and forced Ukrainians out of Borodianka, Irpin, Bucha, Vorzel, Korpyliv, Demydiv…. Reportedly, the house-to-house fighting is so bitter, there were multiple cases of hand-to-hand combat and losses are heavy – on both sides.
Further south, the Ukrainian 14th Mechanised seems to have a problem with destroying the survivors of the 35th CAA’s VDV in the Makariv area: thus, the highway connecting Kyiv with the West remains blocked.
NORTH-EAST
Fierce fighting has been reported all around Chernihiv, but especially in the south, where the Russians have cut off the last land connection between this ‘pocket’ (held by something like three Ukrainian brigades) and the rest of Ukraine, and the east, where the 41st CAA (that is: BTG 90th Tank Division) attempted an assault directly into the city, but was repelled.
Further south, there is a large pocket held by Ukrainian forces around the Nizhyn. They're holding out and I do not expect anything to happen there soon: the Russians are busy elsewhere.
On the eastern side of Kyiv, and as expected, forward elements of the 2nd GTA – apparently including the 15th GMRB – have reached Bohdanivka on the M01 highway (connecting Kyiv with Chernihiv), only 15km outside Kyiv, yesterday (correspondingly, I’ll ‘move’ the reporting on fighting in this area to ‘NORTH’ in the future). The Ukrainian 1st Tank seems to have survived a concentrated, three-prong attack of the 41st and the 2nd GTA, and to have withdrawn to.... 'somewhere in the Kyiv area'.
Further east, the Russian 1st GTA is lagging badly behind expectations: it's still busy fighting off Ukrainian counterattacks into its southern flank. Seems, the glorious Tamanskaya – the 2nd Guards Mechanised Division, the unit famous for its appearances on May-Parades on the Red Square in Moscow – can’t do anything useful at all. Yes, I do recall: already back in the 1980s RUMINT was that this is just a ‘show/parade/guard-duties’ unit. But what they’re doing now… oh dear… while the 2nd GTA steam-rolled into eastern Kyiv, yesterday, the 2nd GMD failed to capture at least Pryluky. Frankly, as always, I doubt its CO knows where is what part of his unit.
Further....east, not south: the 4th Guards Tank Division – the famous Kantemirovskaya – is only excelling at leaving a trail of destroyed and captured T-80s in its wake, all the way from Konotop (still in Ukrainian hands) to Romny. With other words: the 1st GTA failed to achieve even one third of its war aims so far.
Sumy is enveloped by the 1st GTA and heavily shelled and bombed from the sky – but holding out. The garrison is even running raids against Russian convoys that are trying to bypass the town. A ‘humanitarian cease-fire’ did take place yesterday, and some 3,500 civilians were evacuated, but was then interrupted by renewed fighting. As said already days ago, we’re going to see lots of such scams, the longer this fracas goes on – and all are going to serve two purposes: Russian propaganda (‘evacuating poor civilians that were used as human shields’) and setting the stage free for all-out attacks (‘civilians are evacuated, only terrorists left inside, now we’re free to bomb and shell as we like’).
For all practical purposes, the northern flank of the Russian 6th CAA is on defensive…. Even on retreat: after securing Chuhiv, the Ukrainians claim they have pushed for about 10km north. The 6th CAA reacted with an heliborne assault on Vovchansky District, yesterday, but this pointless effort ended in a panicky withdrawal of the surviving VDVs… That itch in my small toe tells me the CO 6th CAA will be the next Russian general ‘shot by a Nazi sniper’…
EAST
The 20th CAA has reached Izium and Rubizhne from the north, and the weakened Ukrainian 53rd Mechanised Brigade seems unable to stop them. Indeed, meanwhile they’re in the process of surrounding Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. There’s a bitter battle for Raisin, with the Russians slowly pushing the Ukranians out of the town. Not sure if it’s a good idea for the Ukrainians further south – along what is left of the original LOC – to let the enemy envelop their northern flak: at least I doubt this war might get solved by negotiations ‘on time’ for them to hold out a siege. On the other side, they've got excellent fortifications there, and are largely safe 'inside' the same.
Mariupol is a bloody shambles. There are reports about massive volumes of the Russian artillery barrages, immense destruction, bodies lying on the streets… Unnecessary to say: a population of about 400,000 is cut off from water, electricity, food and other supplies. I agree with those who say this is going to remain the Russian objective No.1 – ahead of Odessa and Kyiv: it would grant them a land connection to Crimea. Combat-wise, the Russians are pushing on the airport from the south, and pushing through Staryi Krym towards south. On the eastern side of the city, they’ve captured Talakivka and Shryokyne yesterday.
North of Mariupol, the Ukrainians have recovered Volnovakha (apparently smashing a better part of the Separatist Sparta Battalion in the process) and seem to be pushing on Staryi Krym now. This is bold, but I doubt they’ve got enough troops to lift the siege of Mariupol already now: what is left of the 54th Mechanised Brigade is busy holding the LOC, while the 56th Motor Brigade is too weak for the task. Moreover, the Russians seem to be already trying to envelop this advance by pushing on Rozivka, about 15km further north, and that from the east – i.e. into the eastern flank of the 56th.
SOUTH
This is a ‘must, must, must’ area for the Russian now. Zusko’s 58th CAA ‘must’ breach towards the West, it ‘must’ reach Odessa, it ‘must’ this and it must that. As if the 58th CAA is the only army of the Russian Armed Forces to fight… And so, and almost certainly on pressure from the West OSK, after failing to take Voznesensk and Mykolaiv, Zusko now launched a new advance – directly towards north. Fast advances are 'fun' for commanders of his BTGs, but overall situation of the western flank of the 58th CAA is literally begging for a catastrophe now: first invest one city; lose troops; then invest another town; lose troops; then have to guard frontlines to both, while assaulting in the third direction….?
Nothing better but to scatter your forces over a huge area, and then let the enemy defeat them one by one… of course, 'everything is going to be fine' because the West OSK sent reinforcements: a train loaded with another BTG of the VDV (BMD-4, BTR-MDM etc.) was sighted while travelling north from Crimea, yesterday.
And still, busy reinforcing Voznesensk and Mykolaiv, Ukrainians seem to have been taken by surprise. Moreover, their 17th Tank Brigade is lamely sitting somewhere north of Kherson and doing nothing for more than a week: either it was badly damaged in earlier fighting, or only partially mobilised (gauging by the Russians looting part of its storage facility: see the attached screen-grab for one of T-64s found there), or its commander prefers to let Zusko do whatever he likes. Gauging by his performance early during the war, I tend to lean towards the latter…
Ah yes, and since Zusko already has his hands full with operations in the west, lets increase his problems by ordering him to resume advance in the east. Therefore, since yesterday the eastern flank of the 58th CAA is pushing on Pologa and Gulay-Pole – apparently with the aim of advancing on Raisin and thus into the back of the Ukrainian troops along the LOC.
With this, Zaporozhye should be safe. For the time being.

[Guest]

All your links are invalid

[utahbob]

Guest, Thank you for informing me of the bad links. Sorry, the Oryx link was taken down, but I just checked https://www.overtdefense.com/2022/03/08 ... t-defense/ and it is working. The Russian Primer link did not copy over correctly. My bad here is the working version: https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals ... artles.pdf

[Guest]

Guest, Thank you for informing me of the bad links. Sorry, the Oryx link was taken down, but I just checked https://www.overtdefense.com/2022/03/08 ... t-defense/ and it is working. The Russian Primer link did not copy over correctly. My bad here is the working version: https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals ... artles.pdf

Thank you, Bob.

I'm a different guest. I really appreciate you posting this.