Here is Tom Cooper’s take on the last 24 hours in an operational analysis mode:
Good morning everybody!
Here my summary for the last 24-36 hours (8 Mar 22).
CAA - Combined Arms Army (Russia)
BTG - Battalion Tactical Group (Russia)
GTA - Guards Tank Army (Russia)
GTD - Guards Tank Division (Russia)
IFV - infantry fighting vehicle
LOC - Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass region)
MBT - main battle tank
MRB - Motorized Rifle Brigade (throw a G in the front if Guards)
MRD - Motorized Rifle Division (ditto for the G for Guards). Majority of the Russian Ground Forces are Motorized Rifle (i.e. Mechanized Infantry with supporting tanks)
RFA – Russian Federation Army/Russian Armed Forces
RF-9xxxx - Russian military aviation registration
UCAV – unmanned combat aerial vehicle
VDV - Vozdushno-desantnye voyska (Russian Airborne forces)
VKS - Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space Force, Russia)
West OSK – Western Military District, RFA
STRATEGIC
I’m slowly getting tired of US-Polish quarrel over delivery of MiG-29s to Ukraine. First the populist idiots in charge in Warsaw announced they’re ready to immediately transfer all of Polish MiGs to the Ramstein AFB (major US air base in Germany), then the Pentagon – mind: the Pentagon, not the State Department (then, contrary to what you’ve been said, it’s the Pentagon that’s running the US foreign policy) – said, ‘we do not know what are you talking about’.
Actually this was supposed to be run in clandestine fashion. The MiGs were simply to ‘disappear’ and get replaced by second-hand F-16s from the USA. And that’s it. ‘Plausible denial’. …BUT, idiotic populist politicians can’t keep anything clandestine – because it’s in their interest to score propaganda points: yeah, lets provoke a WWIII so some populist there can maintain himself in power...
Whatever… few advices for those who like to follow ‘bang stuff’:
- For an excellent overview of what has the West supplied to Ukraine in the last two weeks, check this link:
https://www.overtdefense.com/.../rundown-western-anti...
- For a one-by-one review of all visually confirmed losses in vehicles and aircraft so far, follow the Oryx blog:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/.../attack-on-europe...
The latter is useful because its indicative of the ‘win-loss’ ratio being something like 3.5-to-1 for the Ukrainians – at least in vehicles. Considering all the catastrophic heliborne assaults by the Russian VDV and Chechens, it’s perfectly possible that it’s even higher in terms of human losses (not when one adds Ukrainian civilians, though….BTW, the number of those fleeing into the EU has surpassed 2 million, yesterday).
PERSONAL NOTE
Since all my pleas to stop asking me for 'friends' have failed (the counter is past 5000 since 5 days), and I'm still getting 150-200 requests a day, I'm now including it here: if you can, just click on 'follow', please. Right now, I've got no time to find an alternative solution.
NORTH
‘The Russians are back‘. Now the 35th CAA is pushing with infantry from the west: over the last two days this has infiltrated and forced Ukrainians out of Borodianka, Irpin, Bucha, Vorzel, Korpyliv, Demydiv…. Reportedly, the house-to-house fighting is so bitter, there were multiple cases of hand-to-hand combat and losses are heavy – on both sides.
Further south, the Ukrainian 14th Mechanised seems to have a problem with destroying the survivors of the 35th CAA’s VDV in the Makariv area: thus, the highway connecting Kyiv with the West remains blocked.
NORTH-EAST
Fierce fighting has been reported all around Chernihiv, but especially in the south, where the Russians have cut off the last land connection between this ‘pocket’ (held by something like three Ukrainian brigades) and the rest of Ukraine, and the east, where the 41st CAA (that is: BTG 90th Tank Division) attempted an assault directly into the city, but was repelled.
Further south, there is a large pocket held by Ukrainian forces around the Nizhyn. They're holding out and I do not expect anything to happen there soon: the Russians are busy elsewhere.
On the eastern side of Kyiv, and as expected, forward elements of the 2nd GTA – apparently including the 15th GMRB – have reached Bohdanivka on the M01 highway (connecting Kyiv with Chernihiv), only 15km outside Kyiv, yesterday (correspondingly, I’ll ‘move’ the reporting on fighting in this area to ‘NORTH’ in the future). The Ukrainian 1st Tank seems to have survived a concentrated, three-prong attack of the 41st and the 2nd GTA, and to have withdrawn to.... 'somewhere in the Kyiv area'.
Further east, the Russian 1st GTA is lagging badly behind expectations: it's still busy fighting off Ukrainian counterattacks into its southern flank. Seems, the glorious Tamanskaya – the 2nd Guards Mechanised Division, the unit famous for its appearances on May-Parades on the Red Square in Moscow – can’t do anything useful at all. Yes, I do recall: already back in the 1980s RUMINT was that this is just a ‘show/parade/guard-duties’ unit. But what they’re doing now… oh dear… while the 2nd GTA steam-rolled into eastern Kyiv, yesterday, the 2nd GMD failed to capture at least Pryluky. Frankly, as always, I doubt its CO knows where is what part of his unit.
Further....east, not south: the 4th Guards Tank Division – the famous Kantemirovskaya – is only excelling at leaving a trail of destroyed and captured T-80s in its wake, all the way from Konotop (still in Ukrainian hands) to Romny. With other words: the 1st GTA failed to achieve even one third of its war aims so far.
Sumy is enveloped by the 1st GTA and heavily shelled and bombed from the sky – but holding out. The garrison is even running raids against Russian convoys that are trying to bypass the town. A ‘humanitarian cease-fire’ did take place yesterday, and some 3,500 civilians were evacuated, but was then interrupted by renewed fighting. As said already days ago, we’re going to see lots of such scams, the longer this fracas goes on – and all are going to serve two purposes: Russian propaganda (‘evacuating poor civilians that were used as human shields’) and setting the stage free for all-out attacks (‘civilians are evacuated, only terrorists left inside, now we’re free to bomb and shell as we like’).
For all practical purposes, the northern flank of the Russian 6th CAA is on defensive…. Even on retreat: after securing Chuhiv, the Ukrainians claim they have pushed for about 10km north. The 6th CAA reacted with an heliborne assault on Vovchansky District, yesterday, but this pointless effort ended in a panicky withdrawal of the surviving VDVs… That itch in my small toe tells me the CO 6th CAA will be the next Russian general ‘shot by a Nazi sniper’…
EAST
The 20th CAA has reached Izium and Rubizhne from the north, and the weakened Ukrainian 53rd Mechanised Brigade seems unable to stop them. Indeed, meanwhile they’re in the process of surrounding Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. There’s a bitter battle for Raisin, with the Russians slowly pushing the Ukranians out of the town. Not sure if it’s a good idea for the Ukrainians further south – along what is left of the original LOC – to let the enemy envelop their northern flak: at least I doubt this war might get solved by negotiations ‘on time’ for them to hold out a siege. On the other side, they've got excellent fortifications there, and are largely safe 'inside' the same.
Mariupol is a bloody shambles. There are reports about massive volumes of the Russian artillery barrages, immense destruction, bodies lying on the streets… Unnecessary to say: a population of about 400,000 is cut off from water, electricity, food and other supplies. I agree with those who say this is going to remain the Russian objective No.1 – ahead of Odessa and Kyiv: it would grant them a land connection to Crimea. Combat-wise, the Russians are pushing on the airport from the south, and pushing through Staryi Krym towards south. On the eastern side of the city, they’ve captured Talakivka and Shryokyne yesterday.
North of Mariupol, the Ukrainians have recovered Volnovakha (apparently smashing a better part of the Separatist Sparta Battalion in the process) and seem to be pushing on Staryi Krym now. This is bold, but I doubt they’ve got enough troops to lift the siege of Mariupol already now: what is left of the 54th Mechanised Brigade is busy holding the LOC, while the 56th Motor Brigade is too weak for the task. Moreover, the Russians seem to be already trying to envelop this advance by pushing on Rozivka, about 15km further north, and that from the east – i.e. into the eastern flank of the 56th.
SOUTH
This is a ‘must, must, must’ area for the Russian now. Zusko’s 58th CAA ‘must’ breach towards the West, it ‘must’ reach Odessa, it ‘must’ this and it must that. As if the 58th CAA is the only army of the Russian Armed Forces to fight… And so, and almost certainly on pressure from the West OSK, after failing to take Voznesensk and Mykolaiv, Zusko now launched a new advance – directly towards north. Fast advances are 'fun' for commanders of his BTGs, but overall situation of the western flank of the 58th CAA is literally begging for a catastrophe now: first invest one city; lose troops; then invest another town; lose troops; then have to guard frontlines to both, while assaulting in the third direction….?
Nothing better but to scatter your forces over a huge area, and then let the enemy defeat them one by one… of course, 'everything is going to be fine' because the West OSK sent reinforcements: a train loaded with another BTG of the VDV (BMD-4, BTR-MDM etc.) was sighted while travelling north from Crimea, yesterday.
And still, busy reinforcing Voznesensk and Mykolaiv, Ukrainians seem to have been taken by surprise. Moreover, their 17th Tank Brigade is lamely sitting somewhere north of Kherson and doing nothing for more than a week: either it was badly damaged in earlier fighting, or only partially mobilised (gauging by the Russians looting part of its storage facility: see the attached screen-grab for one of T-64s found there), or its commander prefers to let Zusko do whatever he likes. Gauging by his performance early during the war, I tend to lean towards the latter…
Ah yes, and since Zusko already has his hands full with operations in the west, lets increase his problems by ordering him to resume advance in the east. Therefore, since yesterday the eastern flank of the 58th CAA is pushing on Pologa and Gulay-Pole – apparently with the aim of advancing on Raisin and thus into the back of the Ukrainian troops along the LOC.
With this, Zaporozhye should be safe. For the time being.