Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

In the current instance the most important variable absent some black swan event like an earthquake is probably the yield curve on the US government debt. QE is no longer holding the tide back, as the 10 year yield has moved from 1.6% early this year to 3.0%. It could be that, absent the huge interventions in early 2009, late 2009 would have looked like 1343. Job losses were certainly mounting quickly in those first few months of 2009. The moratorium that occurred on debt payments post 1343 is a lot like suppression of the interest rate via QE, which is no longer working. I think we're very late in the game but the music has played longer than the 3 years it played between 1343 and 1346. The backstops have been greater and coordinated worldwide. But it also seems to me that interest rates could spike within even a matter of days and the collapse could occur "all at once" after an agonizingly slow "slowly at first". And I don't think that's a good thing.

Armstrong has been speaking of riots occurring in peripheral places around the globe as recently happened in Singapore and eventually spreading to the US. While he mentions 2014 as the beginning of the worldwide violence, I don't know that he expects the violence to hit the US in 2014. I would think it hits the US when the rate of interest gets to the point that the checks have to be cut substantially. There were some recent cuts to food stamps but probably nothing that would incite rioting yet. My guess, though, is that when the riots finally hit the US they could be worse here than anywhere else. Though as we know the French hold history's reputation of being the best rioters.

jcsok wrote:HIggenbotham, While most on this board agree that we have past the tipping point of society devolving, I cannot agree that we will in the near term rapidly implode as in the 14th century. First, although the masses are awakening, keep in mind that only a little over 50% are getting a check from the government, and, therefore only 49% are net being victims of overall great theft (I do agree that EVERYONE is being cheated, of course).

So far, the theft is really only being aimed in a big way at those who save in US dollars and they are a relatively small percentage. In one of his press conferences, Bernanke was asked about or brought this up and basically said that if people don't like it, they can buy stocks, and it seems like most savers have been doing that. On the other hand, if interest rates shoot up to 8% (I think that would be about the rate that would precipitate a real crisis and not just a decline in asset values), it won't be too long before everyone who is dependent directly or indirectly on a government check will be affected, and that's pretty much everyone. Anyone who is private has on average 50% of their customers dependent on government checks so things can circle down the drain pretty quickly once the US can no longer afford to increase the debt.

Putin's speech confirms what Moscow analyst Mikhail Delyagin warned about a decade ago, when he said the president could become a "hostage of bureaucracy." Putin's call, before the applauding bureaucrats of the Kremlin's Georgievski Hall, to "finally" achieve a "technological breakthrough" will likely be as ineffective as his previous appeals.

In his last address to the nation, in Dec. 2012, Putin had clearly spelled out the dangers caused by bureaucrats who slow things down: Those who miss out on progress, Putin said, will become "outsiders" in a world of increased competition and will "inevitably lose their independence." It's a warning he did not repeat this year, though circumstances remain the same....

http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 38761.html

Cracks in the wall never really left. Currency still is.....

I think it will spead from there and grow more. The Syrian side show as we predicted was clean up in isle five for Vlad on regional difficultys lets say.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/keyword/S ... munication

We covered this also in 2008

I would offer the thought how long can the middle kingdom tolerate the facts of water wheat and weather we understand here
and the actual structures needed in fact to harmonizations to be polite survive.....

We know moral category here and the pillar on what they rest it on..... We must be allowed to press the common good since waste is a
linkage as the anger of a sickness which the gods as said long ago to destroy even hope...

Paraphrasing my understanding of Armstrong's reasoning as to why violence will occur, the progression that leads to violence is predictable and repeatable, and the current progression is well advanced. It starts with seeking resolution through peaceful means within the system; for example, by the election of Obama in 2008, a relative outsider who promised to be an agent of "hope and change" and the "Tea Party" in 2010, relative outsiders who made further promises. All promises are broken and nothing comes of it. Anger builds. This leads to peaceful protests such as "Occupy Wall Street" and the protesters are ignored, scorned, physically beaten, etc. No positive change comes of the peaceful protest stage. Anger builds further. The next stage is violence.

Constructive ethic or platos cave wound in a silent war of intent to dilute reason is true as
they sold the rope to hang themselves. Bonhoeffer was correct on thoughts still that allude
thinking voting members to react.

This is from one of there own repentant Dr. Quigley.
a. Taxation gives no inflation and no debt.
b. Fiat money gives inflation and no debt.
c. Bank credit gives inflation and debt.
d. Sales of bonds give no inflation but give debt.

Nations Begin to Pursue Policies of Economic Nationalism ----- soon....
World Trade System Breaks into Segregated Markets ---- warm reboot we warned of in a flip side reality. from our thread Jul 07, 2013

T forwarded http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-1 ... wners.html

Not hard to see what was and is the problem with this Country even when the herd was targeted before the relegated
legislation constructs we know that run in the veins of the Republic.

Fascinating times http://www.reuters.com/news/pictures/sl ... 15STI#a=22

Budweiser, now owned by Anheuser-Busch InBev N.V., which is based in Leuven, Belgium
Alka-Seltzer, now owned by German company Bayer Schering Pharma AG
Ben & Jerrys, now owned by British-Dutch Unilever
AMC theaters, now owned by the Chinese
7-Eleven, now owned by the Japanese company, Seven & I Holdings
Woman’s Day Magazine, now owned by the French company, Hachette Filipacchi Médias, S.A
Purina, now owned by the Swiss company, Nestle
Gerber, now owned by the Swiss pharmaceutical giant, Novartis
Firestone, now owned by the Japanese Bridgestone Corporation
Citgo, now owned by the government of Venezuela
French’s Mustard, now owned by Reckitt Benckiser, a British conglomerate
Frigidaire, now owned by Sweden’s AB Electrolux
The Plaza Hotel in New York City, now owned by Israeli billionaire Yitzhak Tshuva’s El-Ad Group
Trader Joes, now owned by German billionaires Karl and Theo Albrecht
Dial soap, now owned by Henkel KGaA, based in Dusseldorf, Germany
Sunglass Hut, now owned by Italian eyewear seller Luxottica Group
-----
Are you starting to get the picture?
Our economic infrastructure is being absolutely gutted and more than 46 million Americans are now living in poverty.
And if you are waiting for the jokers in Washington D.C. to fix things, you are going to be waiting for a very, very long time.
Over the past several years, both the Democrats and the Republicans have proven again and again that they are basically completely and totally useless.

http://pennsylvaniaallianceforcleanwate ... /the-list/ They don't care about you or your well being just pay more and die.
"Thanks for your contribution to the Progressive agenda. Good luck in your next election. I'll still be here even if you're gone.
http://www.savemiwater.org/news/articles/
3rd H.O. has just been spotted - Once the signal has occurred, it is valid for 30 days
We already smell lighter fluid -- Anger builds -- I agree...

"Henry Bent, a chemist, calculated on the basis of the second law that the chance for a reversal of entropy, such that one calorie could be converted completely into work, is comparable to the odds for a group of monkeys randomly punching at the typewriters to `produce Shakespeare's works 15 quadrillion times in succession without an error."—*S.W. Angrist, "Perpetual Motion Machines," in Scientific American (1968), pp. 218, 120-121.

My thought also on designs. No accidents apply.....
http://princetoneconomics.blogspot.be/
I have considered and read his travail for many many years also.
He understands what a few never can even fathom in the recesses of a soul few dare to peer into.
Some and very few can master it let alone speak of it. Humans have five patterns to acept information
of learning to cope in complex systems. For profit education is a design of limitation process compared to other critical
learning attributes. As warned with it comes sorrow. Acton was polite as it corupts absolutely.

As for the assets around the Pond - When does the leakage out to ES stop? - Not yet given the veloscity

a sideways "Austrian" market, in which no new credit-money money comes in or leaves.

http://www.sreminerals.com/
http://www.pcreml.com/the-69-critical-metals

Maybe this will stop the pissing contest over there on the so called "island claims"
ocean bed territory claims hot spot with the so called educated Orientals....

What we know http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/An_ec ... g_999.html

If they mine close enough underwater to home they will glow fuki anyways.

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Morph ... l_999.html

"LCEs are reversible, unlike shape-memory polymers that change shape only once and cannot go back to their initial shape.
"This is important for biomedical applications, such as dynamic substrates for cell cultures or implantable materials that contract and expand in response to stimulus.
This is what we are targeting with these applications."

Still think the 10 year bond is headed past 3.5% and that the stock market will realize the Fed has lost control of interest rates and panic.

http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2 ... rance.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fry1cTsbl70

https://mises.org/books/pearl_harbor_greaves.pdf

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-1 ... en-appears

Nothing matters Vin until it does. Vix has been monkey hammered into the dust for now.

They are levered 70:1 so nothing matters. We are in debt to our Master and only equal at the base of the cross
as some consider debt is wealth. Sad days indeed and sorrow for the people in many regions.
Count our blessings people and walk away from those who linger in darkness who know better.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/inverse-v ... 24405.html

I was in ziv until -----> http://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-su ... 00617.html

It was moderate short term hold then and now I do not trust it at all. Imagine slamming a basket ball just as hard as you can now
and the result if your off just a bit....
I was checking F also and happy I did not buy anymore than I did on that.