Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
freddyv
Posts: 305
Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2008 4:23 am
Location: Oregon, USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by freddyv »

mannfm11 wrote:Freddy, I don't believe Warren Buffets career has spanned much blood in the streets And Buffet didn't coin that phrase, as I am sure it has been around at least since the panic of 1907. The S&P 500 pays a dividend not much over 3% and the payout is falling every week. The history of holding stock from the point the dividend fell to 3% hasn't been too good. The prior peaks valuations that amounted to a 3% dividend were 1929 and 1966. We reached 1% this time. You must realize that when the SPX was 1500 in 2000, it was worth at peak around 500 to 600 and history promised a good chance for 15 years to come to buy it in that price range. The 1990's mess in Japan wasn't this bad, yet our stock market represents only about 1/2 the damage of Japan so far. Buffet is going to be impaired before this one is over because he is investing the float out of an insurer and any kind of bad year in claims together with poor equity performance will blow the lid off Berkshire. Then there will be blood in the streets and he will be fully invested at a factor of 2.
I basically agree with everything you're saying but I also know that being married too tightly to an expectation or idealogy is not a good investing strategy. Warren Buffet is not a foolish man but like everyone, including you and I, he will be wrong now and then. I think we have significantly farther to fall but I expect the stock market to make some of its best gains before the depression is over.

I am using The Great Depression as a worst case scenario and trying to invest in a manner that will make me money or at least preserve my capital in most any scenario. I am simply not interested in trying to specifically divine the course of the next ten years because that will distract me from properly navigating the next year. I will settle for being realistic about the next ten years and being as dead on as I have been in the past year or two.

I believe it's possible that we may be at the end of our dynasty but I also know that it has looked that way before. In the 1930's we were a depressed nation afraid ro address the growing threats from overseas and yet we rose to that occaision and I fully expect the American people to rise up, when the time comes, and once again prosper and do what is required to ensure our liberty and our prosperity.

Hard times are predestined because of the leverage already in the system but what you can not yet measure is how hard people like me are working to ensure that we do not end up broke and living on the streets. That is the unknowable future and that many of us have accepted that we are in a depression for some time now is a positive factor for our future.

I predict Dow 5,000 or lower in 2009 with a further drop likely into 2010 but I will reasses my views at that point but I would expect a drop down into the 3000's, at least, but I will not be afraid to reasses as needed.

--Fred
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

John Mauldin's newsletter

Post by John »

** John Mauldin's newsletter

I've criticized John Mauldin and Nouriel Roubini before for doing some
excellent analysis, but failing to draw the correct conclusions.

However, Mauldin seems to be going ahead of Roubini in recognizing
that the world financial system is "falling off a cliff."

The newsletter that came out today is an excellent list, graphically
illustrated, with major trend indicators.

http://www.2000wave.com/article.asp?id=mwo021309

His final conclusions are still pretty weak. He tells you not to
"buy and hold" anything because it's too risky.

But he still has "exciting news" about some "cool opportunities with
world-changing technologies." So he's still lying about the
conclusions because he doesn't want to risk his income. At least
he's not talking about a "sideways market" this time.

Sincerely,

John
jwfid
Posts: 56
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 11:10 pm

John Mauldin's newsletter

Post by jwfid »

I wonder if John Mauldin is right about Tim Geithner. I sure hope so.

Also, I wonder how correct he is about losses at European banks compared to banks based in the US. What are the implications?

Joe
StilesBC
Posts: 121
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 9:44 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by StilesBC »

Anyone catch Androse Evans-Pritchard's latest on the Eastern European meltdown?

According to him, Ukraine, Hungary, Poland, Greece, the Baltics and Ireland are about to go the way of the dodo. Like others, he clings to some insane notion that there's some way this can all be prevented and we go back to the way it was. But he doesn't usually let it get in the way of reporting the hard facts. Sadly, that makes him unique.

I covered it in a recent blog post.
http://futronomics.blogspot.com/2009/02 ... -west.html
Barion
Posts: 27
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2008 6:19 am

Re: Financial topics

Post by Barion »

StilesBC wrote:Anyone catch Androse Evans-Pritchard's latest on the Eastern European meltdown?

According to him, Ukraine, Hungary, Poland, Greece, the Baltics and Ireland are about to go the way of the dodo. Like others, he clings to some insane notion that there's some way this can all be prevented and we go back to the way it was. But he doesn't usually let it get in the way of reporting the hard facts. Sadly, that makes him unique.

I covered it in a recent blog post.
http://futronomics.blogspot.com/2009/02 ... -west.html
It's like reading the first chapter of a Tom Clancy novel, where all the pieces are being set up for the major action to come...it's gripping and terrifying all at once. You can see where it's all leading, in a generalized, hazy way, and if this were simply the early part of a novel, I'd say we're in for a great and exciting story. If only it were fiction.

Stuff like this makes it all the clearer why the old Chinese saying, "May you live in interesting times" is a curse, not a blessing. Interesting times, indeed.
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Japan's economic collapse

Post by John »

-- Japan's economic collapse

The major financial story around the world today was not the stimulus
package, but the collapse of the Japanese economy.

Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by an annualized 12.7%
last quarter. This is worse than at any time during Japan's "lost
decade" that followed the Tokyo stock exchange crash in 1990. In
fact, it's the most severe since the 1974 oil crisis, and twice as bad
as those in Europe or the U.S.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

Quite honestly, I had expected Japan to be better off than this,
because they'd already gone through a generational stock market
crash. I guess you never really get over a generational stock market
crash until you've had a major war.

Horror has turned to embarassment, as the Japanese Financial Minister
got drunk at a G7 meeting and slurred his words.
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2008/s2493197.htm

Here's an MP3 of an Australian news report:

http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/audio/ ... ed.WAV.mp3

Sincerely,

John
jwfid
Posts: 56
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 11:10 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by jwfid »

Hi everyone,

If anyone is up tonight, check this post on another blog at http://rangerider.blogspot.com/. He references another blogger at the end of the post. I tried to check the news in Australia, but didn't find anything to unusual. I guess we might find out in a few hours after Europe wakes up.

Joe
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

Dear Joe,
jwfid wrote: > If anyone is up tonight, check this post on another blog at
> http://rangerider.blogspot.com/. He references another
> blogger at the end of the post. I tried to check the news in
> Australia, but didn't find anything to unusual. I guess we might
> find out in a few hours after Europe wakes up.
That's really quite dramatic, isn't it?

My guess is that there's a "mini-panic" brewing. A panic can occur
with or without an explicit trigger. Now that the fiscal stimulus
package has been announced, people can see that it won't save the
world. In the meantime, banks and economies around the world are
collapsing in unison. Even the most euphoric Pollyanna can sometimes
begin to see the writing on the wall. And once something starts in
this atmosphere of high anxiety, it doesn't take much for the other
lemmings to follow.

Sincerely,

John
Matt1989
Posts: 170
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:30 am

Re: Japan's economic collapse

Post by Matt1989 »

John wrote: Quite honestly, I had expected Japan to be better off than this,
because they'd already gone through a generational stock market
crash. I guess you never really get over a generational stock market
crash until you've had a major war.
That's more or less what I've been saying. Ultimately, the generational cycle should have a major effect on the financial one.

Anyway, what's more important is the response of the Japanese people to the crisis. Russia is one to watch as well.

P.S. Tanta died last year.
ojavaid
Posts: 13
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 3:41 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by ojavaid »

jwfid wrote:Hi everyone,

If anyone is up tonight, check this post on another blog at http://rangerider.blogspot.com/. He references another blogger at the end of the post. I tried to check the news in Australia, but didn't find anything to unusual. I guess we might find out in a few hours after Europe wakes up.

Joe
I also enjoy that blog! The guy he quotes at the end is Karl Denninger of Market Ticker. He's fantastic too.
Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Google [Bot] and 1 guest