Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

First, a disclosure: my job is in an "old" technolgy area.

That said, people are dumping their old technology in favor of new technology that is cheaper, more portable, and easier to replace -- even disposable. I see it in the job where I am working.

When the cost to consumers of the old technology bill is too high, and there is a viable substitute, I believe the old technolgy will be dumped in favor of the new.

The old technology may hang on as a "backup" or "emergency standby" source, but will not be the mainstay of the system, anymore.

When Obama said "change", I don't believe he was the change. But whether by intention, or not, change is coming quickly in banking, utilities, communications, transportation, among others.

Open your eyes, and you will see it.

You may have already chosen something different yourself, that you thought would never change.

Obama did not cause the change. But he did bring it to our attention.

Mark

How do you distinguish today's technology changes from those in the
past?

The car replaced the horse and buggy. The internet (arpanet) was
being developed in the 1960s. Univac computers were being used in
the 1950s, and by the 1970s no bank could survive unless its
transactions were processed by a mainframe computer. The Xerox
machine replaced carbon paper. The word processor replaced the
secretary.

How are today's technology changes different from those?

Sincerely,

John

examples:

900 megawatts of windpower (right now, not in the future), in Colorado, replacing coal fired power plants (if the wind is blowing.)

Displaces railroads (for hauling the coal), mines (for fuel supply), possible effects on the tax base (where the coal fired power plants are located), plus all the jobs that supported the old infrastructure.

Another example: cell phones. Various taxing authorities attach surcharges and taxes to land-line phone service. Rates become cheaper just to dump the land line and stick with the cell phone.

If the cell phone goes out, get another one. If the provider raises his rates, go to his competitor.

The technologies are not necessarily new, but they are reaching critical mass, to where the average Joe is realizing he has choices.

Choices mean no more monopoly, and therefore, deflation.