Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

OK, we can lose our jobs, and have to move in with relatives if we lose our home. John (and others) have commented (i.e. in the 2009 outlook) that the steps our government is taking will result in a crisis "of unimaginable proportions".

So how bad do you think it can REALLY get? I would appreciate the insights of the many very very smart people who read and post here. I would LOVE to hear YOUR thoughts on what you think can (or will) happen in the next 2years, 5 years, 10 years, etc.

First of all I would separate any forecast into two categories:
1) Estimate of Median or Most probable events.
2) Worst case scenario.

One of the lessons I took from "The Black Swan" is that low probability adverse events are difficult to estimate.
A better approach is to mitigate against adverse outcomes rather than guess just how likely they are.
Example, what is the chance a hurricane will hit my city (I live inland about 100 miles) ?
They typically they hit about once every 30 years.
What should I do?
Well, rather than asking IF it will be a hit year, We stock up on bottled water, canned food, generators, fuel and medical supplies.
Everyone living here prepares to some degree.
It is the only reasonable strategy for such an event. By the time the forecast models have resolved the likelihood, you no longer have time
to prepare. We board up when we are in the zone of possible (>25% chance).

A similar approach may help with just how bad it may get. Rather than estimating just how bad, determine two distinct preplanned responses.
One for the median or highly probable outcome - a greater depression.
The other for a worst case scenario - PAW (post apocalyptic world).

John has several sections of the GD website that describe his forecast using the GD model.
These bracket the above two outcomes, this is completely credible.

Now sometimes when an predicted outcome is far outside prior expectations of what is possible people tend to either ignore the prediction (Cassandra syndrome) or question the prediction (same result as Cassandra).
Some overreact and EXPECT the worst instead of planning for it, head for the mountain retreat and seal the bunker.
Most of us don't have the resources to overreact so it's only theoretical, I also can't buy $1 Million in gold either (nor do I think it's a good idea).

Given that at best we are looking at an outcome of the greater depression, widespread economic downturn, high unemployment,
poverty for many et cetera, or something just short of mad max at an extrema, many will be tempted to just ignore it.

From a wider prospective civilizations have come and gone many many time before. Each of the major previous civilizations have been certain they would last forever as well.
Fact it did happen.

That's how bad it may be. Maybe and we will get lucky and a moderate outcome will happen; just % unemployment, GDP declines 50 to 75% of present, not major war, general rioting in the street, a quasi martial law environment.

Remember apocalypse is a religious term and not a practical one. The world will not end, or even mankind, but our present worldview and modern paradigm might (growth, progress) shift (to what we don't know).
Also most changes are adverse, rarely does something like the democracy of the American revolution result in a better government or better opportunities for the people.

If you find this depressing, I am sorry, but to be forewarned is to be forearmed.
I really try not to image just how bad it may get, and focus on preparing to adapt.
Good luck.

One final thing.
I guess you deserve an actual answer to your post.
Personally things are likely to be really bad.

John has forecast global economic tsunami, clash of civilizations war, world war, use of nuclear weapons.
Timing is uncertain of course, but just a mater of when not what will happen.
Generation Dynamics is one forecast tool. It's a pretty good one.

There are other perspectives as well, including biological concepts like carrying capacity.
The list is longer, but many converge to the kind of outcome which GD is forecasting.

Personally I can't find anything to contradict this rather dismal view.
We have been a long time moving towards this bleak future.
Part of our present problem is there are limits to growth.
The world is somewhat finite (it's actually quite finite, but technology has mitigated this limitation).
Technology is also a double edged sword, solves some problems creates others.
we are better off with the modern world and all it's improvements, but paradise
is just a concept which can't be actually realized.

Popular movies echo unconscious feelings and beliefs, look at the past ones, for even the good outcomes have
dark outlooks;Blade runner, about the best we could hope for, and the comic but barren Mad Max.
These movies and novels help us to cope with the nagging feeling that the current world is headed in the wrong direction.

In closing I am curious as to what exactly will happen and the sequence of events.
Put me down for a really dark, but not civilization ending outcome.
I really hope the USA remains in the future, and I hope it is not so different it's unrecognizable.

From a wider prospective civilizations have come and gone many many time before. Each of the major previous civilizations have been certain they would last forever as well.

Can't call a spade a spade it might be inconvenient. Ignoring possible major and likely problems is preferred. until ---- it's SHTF time. unbelievable --
--- Nuclear power plants near active volcanoes -- brilliant just brilliant, does humanity promote the dumbest as leaders? ---

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-2 ... ive-volcan


Local officials have voted to reopen a nuclear plant in Japan, despite warnings of increased volcanic activity in the region from scientists.

The decision comes despite a warning on Friday that Japan’s Seismological Agency had documented an increase of activity in the Ioyama volcano, located 40 miles away from the power station.


Sendai will become the first Japanese nuclear plant to reopen in since 2011.

However the decision comes as scientific authorities warned of increased seismic activity on the island. Volcanologists have warned that the 2011 earthquake, which measured 9.0 on the Richter scale, may have increased the likelihood of volcanic activity throughout the region. [Background.]

***

The Sendai plant is also situated only 31 miles from Mount Sakurajima, an extremely active volcano which erupts on a regular basis.

The documentation of new activity comes barely a month after the eruption of Mount Ontake, when 57 hikers were killed on its slopes. There were no accompanying signs of seismic activity prior to the eruption which might have alerted Japanese authorities to the impending disaster.

The vote has been seen as an attempt to resurrect the country’s nuclear industry, which the Japanese government hopes to restart despite public opposition to nuclear energy in the wake of the Fukushima disaster.


Japan Times, Oct. 24, 2014: Colossal volcanic eruption could destroy Japan at any time: study — Japan could be nearly destroyed by a volcanic eruption over the next century that would put nearly all of its population of 127 million people at risk… “It is not an overstatement to say that a colossal volcanic eruption would leave Japan extinct as a country,” Kobe University earth sciences professor Yoshiyuki Tatsumi and associate professor Keiko Suzuki said… A disaster on Kyushu… would see an area with 7 million people buried by flows of lava and molten rock in just two hours [and] making nearly the entire country “unlivable”… It would be “hopeless” trying to save about 120 million…


University of Tokyo professor Toshitsugu Fujii, head of government panel on eruption prediction: “Scientifically, they’re not safe… If [reactors] still need to be restarted… it’s for political reasons, not because they’re safe, and you should be honest about that.”
--------------------------------------

AMERICAN Government Forces Re-Start of Japanese Nuclear Reactors
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/10/ ... ctors.html

Americans Are Largely Responsible for Japan’s Ongoing Nuclear Policy

Archaic nuclear reactor designs such as those used at Fukushima – built by American company General Electric – were chosen because they were good for making nuclear bombs. The U.S. secretly helped Japan develop its nuclear weapons program starting in the the 1980s. Therefore, the U.S. played a large role in Japan’s development of nuclear energy. (See this).

After the Fukushima disaster – in an effort to protect the American nuclear industry – the U.S. has joined Japan in raising “acceptable” radiation levels. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also signed a pact with her counterpart in Japan agreeing that the U.S. will continue buying seafood from Japan, despite the fact that the FDA is refusing to test seafood for radiation in any meaningful fashion. So U.S. actions are helping to protect a pro-nuclear policy in Japan.

Indeed, mainstream Japanese newspaper Nikkei reports that it was President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton who have pressured the Japanese to re-start that country’s nuclear program after the Japanese government vowed to end all nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima disaster.
---------------------
Sushi anyone?